[轉錄][外絮] 關於Kobe關鍵時刻表現的迷思 PartII

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※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1DGxMura ] 作者: kart (=\) 看板: NBA 標題: [外絮] 關於Kobe關鍵時刻表現的迷思 PartII 時間: Sat Jan 29 14:37:42 2011 Kobe自己曾經說過 Love me or Hate me 大家耳熟能詳，我只能說Kobe都放下了，很多球迷放不下何苦？這一類文章，不是寫給Kobe看的，而是寫給球迷看的， Kobe成就了很多事蹟，但是很多地方他離最強也差很遠就像這一系列文章討論的關鍵時刻表現，他的確不是最強被拿出來討論，是因為很多人覺得他關鍵時刻最強，所以拿他有五個戒指來說這文章沒有意義，根本也牛頭不對馬嘴但是如果有論述證明他關鍵時刻還是最強的觀點，倒是可以試著討論看看 ======================================================================== The makes 關於投中的部份 Nobody playing today has a crunch time résumé with half the excitement, or sheer bulk, of Bryant's: A banked 3 against Miami in 2009. Two ridiculous plays in Game 4 in that 2006 playoff series against the Suns. Making the Celtics' great defense look meaningless. Those four shots would make a career for most All-Stars. They are a mere eighth of Bryant's best moments. 的確沒有人在今天的NBA中，在關鍵時刻的履歷中有Kobe那麼五花八門。 2009年對熱火的那個擦版三分。2006年對太陽季後賽第四場那兩個誇張的投籃。去年一月底對Boston的最後一擊也讓Boston引以自豪的防守看來沒啥用處。這四個投籃在很多NBA的明星球員中已經是生涯最輝煌的時刻，但是在 kobe的履歷上這些只不過是勉強上榜的投籃。 Respect the brute force of numbers. If you want to see someone who has proven he can hit big buckets, nobody can rival his collected works. That speaks to his preparation, his dedication, the trust his teammates have in him, and more subtle things like how his training regimen has kept him healthy and productive for such a long time. 數大就是美。如果你想要看某人可以證明他心臟很大顆，沒有人可以撼動Kobe這方面整體的表現。這包括他賽前準備，他的專注，他隊友對他的信任，還有一些細微的地方，譬如說他的養身之道讓他能健康打球那麼長一段時間。 At all times he's cool as hell. At all times he's polished, fearless, ruthless even. Most of the time he's double-teamed. The shots are impossibly difficult. It's intimidating. He looks like a robot of crunch time destruction, if robots could jump really high, shoot really well and scowl really hard. 他總是像地獄般冷靜，他總是無懼甚至可以說冷血。大部分時候他都被包夾，很多投籃困難度都非常高。這種表現令人感覺到不舒服，他在關鍵時刻看起來就像一個可以跳的高，投的不錯而且熱血的機器人。 Nobody can match that. And so we live in a world where Bryant has been appointed king of all crunch time and it's not hard to see why. 這一方面沒的確沒人可以比得上。所以Kobe被認為是關鍵時刻之王好像也不是那麼難懂。 And well worth noting is that over that period he has clearly been one of the best players in the world, period, leading a team that has won five championships and has the potential to win more. 當然你也不能否認在他手上有五個戒指，甚至有可能贏得更多，他是世界上最好的球員之一。 Bryant's absolutely the best in the world at the game of winning the hearts and minds of crunch time. A lot goes into it: creating shots against any defense, staying calm, ignoring fear and more. It's about who most has the rest of the league by the throat. In that game, it's cowardly to pass the ball, and misses are merely the cost of doing business. In that game, degree of difficulty counts. Kobe的確在關鍵時刻時有心臟大顆和贏球的心志堅強上無人能比。在很多方面顯現出來：在防守壓力下製造出投籃機會，保持冷靜，忽視害怕等東西。對他來說這是割喉戰，在這種「比賽」中，他覺得傳球是懦夫，而投失球只是副產品。這類「比賽」中，只有投球難度才是他在意的。 That game, though, is not basketball. 但是這「比賽」，卻不是籃球。 In basketball, entrusting the ball to the open teammate really does benefit the team. Remember when Jordan passed to a wide open Bill Wennington in the lane? Or to Steve Kerr or John Paxson in the Finals? 因為籃球比賽，把球傳給有空檔的隊友是對球隊整體有幫助的行為。還記得老喬也會把球傳給有空檔的Bill Wennington, 更別提在總冠軍賽的經典 - 傳給Steve Kerr和John Paxson。 Can all those players, GMs and Phil Jackson be wrong? 所以投他票的球員，經理還有湖人總教頭都錯了嘛？ TrueHoop reader Terence speaks for many when he writes: Correct me if I am wrong but I believe in most recent GM and player polls Kobe ranked number one when asked who the best clutch player was? What does this mean? The majority of the GMs in the NBA are wrong? The people that get trusted by very powerful and wealthy owners to run their teams are completely out in left field? The players that go head-to-head with Kobe Bryant on a nightly basis are just misinformed and are not qualified to answer this question? Phil Jackson, arguably the greatest coach in NBA history, trusts Kobe enough to give him that same clutch shot every single time, despite the fact that Kobe "shoots way too much," and has a "judgment problem?" That coach Jackson must be one terrible coach, he's very lucky to win those 11 titles. 有個讀者寫信給我大概可以代表很多人的心聲：「糾正我如果我錯了的話，但是大部分的經理都選Kobe為聯盟裡關鍵時刻最好的球員，這是什麼意思？難道NBA的經理都錯了嘛？這些被NBA球隊老闆信任來管理球隊的經理的眼光難道那麼差唷？還有那些選他的球員呢？難道他們跟Kobe對壘的時候眼睛都拖窗唷？還有Phil Jackson，他應該是NBA史上最偉大的教練吧？他為什麼也信任Kobe在關鍵時刻的表現咧？雖然他說Kobe「射太多」而且有「判斷上的問題」？這樣說來Phil一定是個糟糕的教練，能贏11個冠軍只是運氣？」 It's not just players and GMs, it's almost everybody. What we see with our eyes and feel in our hearts is impossible to ignore, even when it's misleading. Yet we get things wrong all the time anyway, for the simple reason that a lot more happens in the NBA than anybody can catalog in any objective way. 事實上，不只球員和經理，幾乎所有人都這樣認為。我們看到的和我們心裡的感覺不可能忽略，即使這些感覺常常誤導了我們。但是我們常常會有錯誤的認知，在NBA這種錯誤認知不分何時都存在任何地方。 In that same G.M. survey, for instance, John Wall was a heavy favorite to beat Blake Griffin for rookie of the year. Kevin Durant was a slam dunk to win this year's MVP. 就拿同一份經理調查來說好了，大部分的經理都認為John Wall會打敗 Griffin拿下新人王。而且幾乎所有人都認為雷霆王會是本季MVP。 In that player poll, Chauncey Billups got the second-most votes as the preferred go-to crunch-time scorer. Billups is three of 27 with the game on the line over the last five seasons. Dead last in the whole NBA among those who have attempted at least 15 shots. 更別提在同一份對球員的調查中，Billups是僅次於Kobe的第二名關鍵時刻表現者。但是告訴你吧，過去五季以來，Billups在關鍵時刻的表現是全聯盟在關鍵時刻至少投了15球的球員裡面最差的！他投27球只進過三球！！ None of that means anyone is dumb. Instead it means that reputation is a huge factor, and it's beyond anyone to remember and catalog 7,000 or so shots in your head. 所有這些東西並不代表你我很蠢，這只告訴我們一件事，名望值是很重要的，因為任何人都不可能隨時在腦中記住過去15季那7000+次的關鍵投籃。 And as for Jackson, he wants the same kind of hit-the-open-man team play every coach wants. We know this because back when he was free to speak frankly on the topic, he could not have been more clear. "I sometimes think Kobe is so addicted to being in control that he would rather shoot the ball when guarded, or even double-teamed, than dish it to an open teammate," Jackson wrote in his 2004 book "The Last Season." "He is saying to himself: how can he trust anyone else? Well, he should learn to trust ..." 回來說說Phil Jackson吧，他何嘗不希望有每個教練都強調的「把球傳給空檔」的戰術咧？我們為什麼知道Phil真的是這樣想？因為當他沒有任教職時，他可以在這個議題上暢所欲言時，他說過「我有時候認為Kobe對想要掌握球已經到上癮的程度，他寧願在被重兵防守下投籃，也不願意把球傳給空檔隊友。」Phil在他的自傳裡曾寫到「Kobe告訴他自己：他怎麼能相信任何人呢？嗯，我想他應該學習信任...」 Jackson published that book in the interlude when he was not coaching the Lakers. That he doesn't talk that way is hardly bizarre -- it's admirable for a coach to keep his criticism of a colleague "in the family." Phil的確是在沒有執教時說了這樣的話。他之所以現在不再這樣說也不奇怪，畢竟他現在和kobe是在同一條船上，不應該攻擊自家人。 However, don't confuse Bryant's domination of the ball with Jackson's endorsement of the plan. In the same book, Jackson tells of his annoyance at Bryant's ballhogging in crunch time. In one instance, he describes drawing up a play with multiple options, in crunch time of a 2004 playoff series against Houston. Bryant destroyed all the options; instead of setting a baseline screen for Shaquille O'Neal he ran straight to the ball. "With the twenty-four-second clock winding down," writes Jackson, "Kobe forced a long jumper, a horrible shot in the game's most critical possession. The ball did not reach the rim..." 但是可別搞錯以為Kobe關鍵時刻對投籃的執著是有Phil Jackson的背書的。在同一本自傳裡，Jackson也曾經說過他對Kobe在關鍵時刻的自幹很感冒。他並且舉例：在2004年季後賽對火箭有一次關鍵時刻他畫了好幾個不一樣的戰術，Kobe摧毀了所有的戰術計畫。他應該要在底線幫大歐做一個單擋，但是他卻直往球的方向奔去。Jackson寫到「眼看24秒快到了，Kobe被迫投出一個很糟糕的長射籃，在球賽最關鍵的時候。這球根本連籃框都沒碰到...」 Jackson also tells of marching, more than once, into Mitch Kupchak's office to demand that the Lakers trade Bryant. He writes things like: 另外球迷們也別忘了Jackson不只一次怒衝到湖人經理辦公室要求球隊交易 Kobe，他寫到： "Kobe tends to hold on to the ball longer than necessary causing the offense to stagnate." "He won't listen to anyone. I've had it with this kid." "As usual, Kobe seemed intent on taking over." 「Kobe總是持球過長，讓整個進攻停滯。」「他不聽任何人的話，我受夠了這小屁孩。」「就像平常一樣，Kobe似乎又想要掌控比賽了。」 More recently, Jackson's long-time assistant Kurt Rambis, when he still worked for the Lakers, was clear that the coaching staff preferred the team run their ruthlessly efficient triangle, with its passing and cutting, "at all times." 而就在最近，曾是Jackson的助理教練Rambis清楚說到當時湖人教練團無時無刻都想要球隊跑三角戰術，多傳多切。 I see lots of evidence that Bryant dominates Laker possessions in crunch time. But I see no evidence it's part of Jackson's plan. 以上總總證據顯示，Kobe關鍵時刻對手上持球的執著並不是Jackson戰術的一部分。 Should stats even be part of this conversation? 所以統計數字到底有沒有意義？ Yes. 有。 But not because stats are better. But because this is a tricky -- and at least in terms of sports, important -- question. We should answer this with the best evidence we can get our hands on. In my mind, the final analysis would come from video, which captures the full complexity of the game. But that video should be of good and bad plays. And that video should consider many candidates, including Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and the like -- not just the assumed king. 但是不是因為統計數字比較好，而是這代表一個在運動屆很重要也很令人玩味的問題。我們應該要用一分證據說一分話。我心裡所想的是，分析應該要從錄影開始，只有錄影才能回溯整個進攻的複雜性。但是錄影應該包括好的和壞的進攻，而且錄影應該包括所有的候選人，像是CP3和甜瓜，而不是只有我們假設的王。 Remember when SUVs first came into existence? People went crazy for them. They were, it turned out, what a huge percentage of drivers felt they had been waiting for. Malcolm Gladwell explains more than anything people liked how these big strong trucks, riding up high, slathered in airbags, made everybody feel safe. You go out there, on those crowded, scary roads, and very little can hurt you. Everyone just knew that. The SUV matched a picture in our brains: This is how a safe automobile feels. 還記得當初多功能四輪傳動車(SUV）引進的時候，大家都趨之若鶩，大家都認為SUV是最安全的車種，又大又不容易受到傷害。因為大家看到車的外型，就都是這樣認為的。 Only it was a crock. There were real reasons, many having to do with design, why SUVs were actually surprisingly unsafe. A minivan, for instance, at the time of Gladwell's writing, was far safer. Gladwell cites safety statistics compiled by Tom Wenzel, a scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Marc Ross, a physicist at the University of Michigan, which found, essentially, that little nimble cars with good visibility -- the precise cars people were abandoning for SUVs -- were safer still. 事實證明這只是一個沒有道理的假象。事實上SUV是非常不安全的車種。而根據科學證明，一些小車反而相對安全許多。 How did we learn that? With a commonsense look at some stats, specifically by comparing the number of fatalities to the number of cars of a certain model on the road. A safe car is one you don't die in, right? That's useful. 這個事實告訴我們一件事，很多時候看數據要用常識去看，就像看車的安全性，你只要看死亡報告/車輛的比，就知道哪些車比較安全。 Similarly, Bryant looks like a great crunch time scorer. He has the right skills, the right demeanor, the right highlights, the right jewelry. But as it turns out, Bryant's clutch like an SUV is safe. 同理，Kobe「看起來」像是個偉大的終結者。他有著該有的技巧，有著對的執著的態度，有那麼多高光，有那麼多戒指。但是事實上，Kobe是偉大終結者就像說SUV很安全一樣。 There are a lot of misleading things in this world. 這世界上有非常多令人誤導的事。 And let's be clear: The numbers that doom Bryant's campaign as the king of crunch time are not really statistics. They're not formulas, or algorithms. They're really just counting -- both makes and misses for the player and the team. 最後讓我們澄清一下：讓Kobe從關鍵時刻之王的假象中破滅的只是數字而不是數據。這之中並沒有什麼困難的公式。他們只是簡單的數數字--數他投進和投失多少球還有對球隊的影響。 If you're asking me to pick one guy to make a shot with the game on the line, there's nothing complex about peeking at the record to see how well he has done that job in the past. Every number in that chart is a real moment of NBA basketball, with ten players on the court, and Bryant in a Laker uniform, rising, firing, and -- most of the time -- missing. These things really happened, and as much as you might want to ignore opinion, or theory, there's no real reason to ignore 79 misses, broken plays, a shocking lack of passing, a coaching staff eager for more team play, and an elite team that gets below-par results with the game on the line. 如果你要我選一個關鍵時刻把球交到他手上的對象，那這並不是很困難，只要看看他們在這種狀況下的紀錄就可以知道他在這方面的表現如何。表上的每一個數字代表的都是NBA場上的時刻。10個球員在場上，Kobe身著湖人球衣，看他跳起，出手-然後大多時候- 不進。這些事真的在發生，不管你多想要忽視人們的觀點或是理論，你沒有理由去忽略那79次失投球，毀掉的進攻戰術，驚人少的傳球，想要打團隊進攻的教練團，和明明一個菁英進攻球隊會在關鍵時刻變成一個普通進攻球隊這些事實。 As long as your mind is open to all that, it has to be closed to the idea that Kobe Bryant is the king of crunch time. 如果你能保持一個開闊的心胸，「kobe是關鍵時刻之王」這個想法應該被移除掉。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 76.126.251.156

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