[閒聊] 其實大家不要太氣餒
我來分析給大家聽
目前八勝一敗 也就是說贏八場輸一場
也就是說目前獲勝的機率是8/9 落敗的機率是1/9
剩下73場 假設每場比賽間是獨立不相影響
我們設接下來贏x場 x~b(73,8/9)
那們機率為
73
f(x)=( )8/9^x * 1/9^73-x
x
那麼 我們接下來73場贏64場的機率為
73
P(x=64)=( )8/9^64 * 1/9^9 = 約 0.13
64
驚人結果顯示竟然還有突破一成
所以大家不要太悲觀
明天是美好的 蟹蟹
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