[外電] It's all about timing and value to con

看板Kings作者Gunsroses時間12年前 (2013/07/07 00:24)推噓19(19推 0噓 19→)

留言38則, 9人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/ljyfd83 Friday Mail Sac: It's all about timing and value to contract, but is the timing and valuation correct? Let's see...where to start? I think that I want to start by applauding everyone that has commented over the past few days over the incendiary topic that is Tyreke Evans. While there has certainly been some extremism on both sides of the aisle, the overall conversation has been dynamic and informative. And the tone has had far more respect than I would have guessed (with a few notable exceptions). The ban hammer and timeout tapper have been on high alert, but there have been very few occasions to unsheathe them. Well done! There are great rationalizations on either side of this debate. On the one side is that this team is not as good without Evans as they are with Evans. And if the sum of this summer's roster moves wind up being Evans for Vasquez, I would agree. 我想首先我要稱讚大家在過去幾天有關Tyreke的交易討論，的確正反兩面有些極端的聲音，但整體而言，討論不斷的在進行，彼此交換訊息。且比我猜想的更理性且相互尊重(少數例外)。言論禁止或暫停討論這些管理者的手段一直保持在警戒狀態，但只有在極少數的場合才需要派上用場。幹得好！討論雙方都有很合理的論點。一邊認為這支球隊沒有Evans也沒有比擁有Evans好。如果今年夏天球員名單止於Evans而非Vaz，我會希望如此。 Vasquez will certainly provide a pass-first mindset that we have not seen from the point guard position since perhaps Jason Williams, and this will make everyone on the team better on the offensive end. However, we should also keep the very real perspective that Vasquez was probably not a top 15 point guard by the end of last season. He's a suspect shooter, and has not shown much passion for defense. Just like Tyreke Evans, he needs to address the deficiencies in his game to get to the next level. And make no mistake: Evans is at a much higher level right now as a player than Greivis Vasquez. 也許Vaz是從J.Will以來，我們很久沒見過的傳球第一的控球後衛(按:SRod?)，這將使得在進攻端讓隊上每個球員都更好。然而，我們也應該看清現實，上個賽季Vaz可能還不是排名前15的控球後衛。你會懷疑他到底是不是個射手，也不熱衷於防守。就像Tyreke，他需要改善本身的缺善，去達到一個新的水平。而且沒有錯：作為一名球員，Evans比Vaz還要更好。 On the other side of this debate is that Evans is not worth the 4 year, $44m investment, or at the very least that there are better ways to spend that money. As someone that would have paid Evans that amount (and $1m a year more before I cried "Uncle"), I'm not sure that I agree...yet. I would tend to agree that a team with Tyreke Evans as their centerpiece is not a serious playoff contender. However, an $11m a year player is not centerpiece pricing. $11m a year would have made Evans the 4th highest paid player on Miami last year, and the 3rd highest paid player on the Spurs. If we skip down to the 4th seeds in the playoffs, Evans would have been the 5th highest paid player on the Nets and the 3rd highest paid player on the Clippers (Griffin's new contract not kicking in until 2013-14). Tied for 3rd on Boston, 4th on the Lakers (both 7th seeds), but tied for 1st on 8th seed Milwaukee and 1st on Houston (with Harden's new deal kicking in this year). 另一種辯論的角度是，Evans不值得在他身上投資4年4400萬美元，或至少是有更好的方式來花這筆錢。正如同有人願意向Evans支付這筆金額，至少到目前為止我不確定我同意這個論點。我傾向於同意，以Tyreke作為球隊核心不會成為一個季後賽的競爭者。然而，每年$11m也並非核心球員的價碼。若在去年的邁阿密，Tyreke每年$11m的薪水是第四高的，在馬刺則是第三高。在往下看季後賽中的第4種子，在籃網會是第五高，快艇則是第三高 (Griffin的新合約要到2013-14才開始執行)。並列Boston第三高，湖人第四高(都是第7種子)，但同樣是第8種子的Milwaukee和Houston則是第一高(鬍子新合約今年開始執行)。 The Kings could have matched and retained Evans at 4/$44m without really mortaging the franchise or committing to him that he was "the man" or the face of the franchise. The Kings could have elected to pay Evans and pay Cousins at or near the max next year and still be under the cap, albeit not enough to sign an upper tier player. But in 2015-16, the team would have an abundance of cap room, with Cousins/Evans and Thompson being the only current contracts of any note (McLemore would be earning a couple of million at this point). 國王大可以花4/$44m匹配並保留Tyreke，無需把他當成救世主或者承諾他就是國王要的那個人。國王可以選擇付給Tyreke，並且在明年給考表弟達到或接近最大的合約，且仍然在薪資上限以下，儘管不夠簽其它更好的球員。但在2015-16年，只剩表弟/Tyreke/JT有合約，球隊將有充足的薪資空間 (這一點對McLemore來說會使他多賺幾百萬)。 Given these numbers, I'm not sure that the timing matters. I mean, you don't want to throw a $44m investment out there if it's not going to improve your team, so if the mindset of the franchise is that you don't pay out for your 2nd or 3rd best player until you have paid out for your best player, I can at least see a bit of the logic. But as versatile as Evans is, it sure seems that you could retain him and retrofit him as you bring in other talent. It really comes down to value, in my opinion. Simply, the Kings front office did not value Tyreke Evans as a 4/$44m player. For those that agree with the front office, it's "Welcome our new cap guru and analytic overlords!" For those that disagree, it's "I miss Geoff Petrie!", or at the very least, some insight into what the front office is thinking here. 考慮到這些數字，我不確定跟順序是否有關聯。我的意思是，如果它不會使你的球隊進步，你不會希望就這樣隨便投資$44m，所以這種心態是，直到你付錢給你的最佳球員，你才會付給第二或第三的球員，我終於可以看到一點點的邏輯。但像Tyreke這樣的多功能球員，肯定似乎得挽留他，改造他直到你帶來其他更好的人才。在我看來，終歸一點就是價值。簡單地說，國王的新團隊認為Tyreke不值4/$44m。對於那些同意的人，“歡迎我們的新薪資上限大師和數據分析霸主！” 對於那些不同意的人，“我好懷念Petrie！”，至少目前為止我們可以了解上頭的人都在想些什麼。 One thing that is really not debatable is the value to contract of Vasquez. He is a starting caliber point guard (again, though, not currently a top 15), at a very low $2.2m. I like Jeff Teague a lot, but Vasquez is not all that far away from Teague, so it will be interesting to see what kind of contract Teague draws this summer. Because whatever it is, that could potentially be the market for Vasquez next year if/when he becomes a restricted free agent. Teague's contract will definitely provide a negotiating point for Vasquez as this process moves forward, if the Kings indeed have an interest in keeping him around (FWIW, I put little stock in the scuttlebutt that the Kings wanted Calderon over Vasquez, and even if that is true, this does not automatically mean that they dislike Greivis, especially since they are indeed acquiring him as of right now). As much as I would have paid Evans 4/$44m, Vasquez's contract is the better value right now, though perhaps for only one year. 有一件事你不用懷疑，那就是Vaz合約的價值。他是一個先發等級的的控球後衛(再次強調雖然不在前15名內)，非常低的$2.2m的薪資。我非常喜歡Jeff Teague，但Vaz也差不了多少，很好奇今夏Teague會怎麼簽。所以不管如何，Vaz明年夏天成為受限制自由球員，勢必很有市場價值。 Teague的合約勢必會提供Vaz一個談判的參考，如果國王確實想留下他 (無論如何，我聽到的傳言是，國王對Calderon更有興趣，即使如此，也並不意味著他們不喜歡Vaz，特別是因為他們現在也得到他了）。即便我多麼願意支付Tyreke 4/$44m，目前Vaz的合約更有價值，即便只有一年。 And while I agree that the sign & trade is better than outright losing Evans, the fact is that the Kings had the opportunity and authority not to lose him. The fact that they are electing to do so simply means that they think that Evans is (a) overvalued at this contract offer, and (b) not worth paying over value for. The overvaluation component is important here. At some point every team has to overpay for talent in order to be competitive. However, given the cap constraints, your hope is to relegate those overpayments to your top couple of players. Is Evans one of those guys? The Kings seem to be saying no. The Kings seem to be saying that they are going to ultimately look elsewhere for their top-end talent (I have no clue as to where right now and your guess is probably better than mine), and they have either chosen flexibility over Evans, or something else is going to happen that we are not privy to yet. It is, after all, only July 5. 我同意S&T總比徹底失去Tyreke好，但事實是，國王有機會也有權力不失去他。他們選擇這樣做只是意味著他們認為Tyreke這份合約太大，且不值得跟進這價碼。合約太大這點是很重要的。在某些時候，每個球隊必須多付點錢留下這些天賦以保持競爭力。然而，由於薪資上限的限制，你的希望是貶謫那些你需多付錢的隊上的頂尖球員。 Tyreke是這類人嗎？國王似乎不這麼認為。國王似乎在說，他們還在尋找最終更頂尖的球員(我沒有線索，也許你猜的比我準)，他們選擇保持彈性更勝於簽下Tyreke，或許還會發生什麼驚天動地的事我們不知道。畢竟現在也才7月5日。 A side note to all of this is the Robin Lopez component. I think that I am once again valuing Lopez higher than the front office. Lopez is due to make $5.1m and $5.3m over the next two years actually $5.9m and $6.1m after factoring in the trade kicker - hat tip CaliforniaJag). That's not a bad price for a defensive-minded center. Lopez would provide more defensive interior presence than anyone since Samuel Dalembert. He is not a plus-rebounder, but that happens sometimes with guys that are busy altering shots (his rebounding rate is on a par with Marc Gasol, for example). I can't see why the Kings wouldn't keep him, unless there is something else brewing that we don't know about. I'm OK with receiving 2nd round picks for Lopez instead of Jeff Withey (who is reportedly headed to the Pelicans in this deal), as I think that those picks may be ultimately used to obtain good players from other teams that are looking to shed contract, or as pieces to other future trades. Again, so much is contingent on the next deal...if that deal is indeed forthcoming. 還需要關注R.Lopez這部份。跟上頭比較起來，我還是認為Lopez價值更高。由於Lopez未來兩年薪資為$5.1m和$5.3m，對於一個防守型中鋒這價格不差。 (由於交易的關係，實際上得支付$5.9m和$6.1m。)(按:不懂規則) Lopez將提供自大懶伯以來最好的內線防守影響力。他不是一個好的籃板手，但有時會是因為有些人急於出手。 (他的籃板率與Mark Gasol差不多) 我看不出為什麼國王會不想要他，除非有別的我們不知道的東西。選擇第二輪選秀權替代Jeff Withey(去小鳥了)而捨棄Lopez我認為OK，我認為那些選秀權最終可能會被用來獲得其他球隊想擺脫合同的優秀的球員，或包進其他未來的交易。再次得說，下一次交易有太多可能性....如果真的有交易的話。 Overall, I'm not pleased with where the Kings roster is today as opposed to where it was right after the draft. But that could change in the blink of an eye, or within minutes of me posting this, or by July 12 and the first day of Vegas Summer League, or by training camp, or by the trade deadline, or by next year, or perhaps the year after that. My hope is that there are still plenty of chapters to be written about the Sacramento Kings offseason of 2013. 總體而言，比起選秀剛結束，我實在不爽現在國王的球員名單。但也可能在眨眼之間就改變了，或者我張貼這幾分鐘內，或者在7月12日，或者拉斯維加斯夏季聯賽的第一天，又或者訓練營，或者在交易截止日前，或者明年，或者後年。我希望國王這個2013的夏季還沒有結束，繼續讓我有東西可以寫。 -- 這篇應該可以引起更多共鳴 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 1.172.124.189 ※ 編輯: Gunsroses 來自: 1.172.124.189 (07/07 00:27)

推

yhes916103

07/07 00:39, , 1^F

07/07 00:39, 1^F

推

yhes916103

07/07 00:40, , 2^F

07/07 00:40, 2^F

推

Tmix

07/07 00:41, , 3^F

07/07 00:41, 3^F