[轉錄][外絮] Kevin Martin：NBA界的Adam Dunn？

看板Kings作者martyrtitan (Martyrs)時間14年前 (2009/09/09 18:55)推噓6(6推 0噓 6→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板] 作者: gaiaesque (つまらない) 看板: NBA 標題: [外絮] Kevin Martin：NBA界的Adam Dunn？時間: Wed Sep 9 18:36:15 2009 http://tinyurl.com/m7ye8j 文中有一堆棒球術語如有翻譯錯誤，煩請指正orz Posted by Kevin Arnovitz There probably isn't a slugger in Major League Baseball more polarizing than Adam Dunn. It's not that Dunn is a troublemaker or malcontent. Rather, it's his stats that divide baseball fans into one camp or the other. MLB歷史上大概沒有一個強打者會比Adam Dunn更極端。並不是說Dunn是個麻煩製造機或是反抗家。更確切地說，是他的表現，可以讓棒球迷因此而分出不同陣營來。 Dunn's detractors regard him as a latter-day Rob Deer -- a .251 career batter and strikeout machine who can hit the ball out of the park, but do little else. In contrast, sabermetricians love Dunn's efficient .385 career on-base percentage and don't regard his strikeout totals or shaky fielding to be all that detrimental to his overall game. A batter who gets on base 3/8 of the time and slugs over .500? That's an All-Star caliber player, whether you're talking about Mark Teixiera, Miguel Cabrera, or Dunn. 討厭Dunn的一方認為他是個Rob Deer接班人，2成51的生涯打擊率、三振出局機器；相反地，他的粉絲喜歡他的生涯3成85的上壘率，他的三振出局、不牢靠的守備對比賽的影響也不是那麼在乎。一位上壘率3成75以上而且可以有5成以上打擊率的打者？不管是Mark Teixiera、Miguel Cabrera或是Dunn，那都會是明星級的水準。 Basketball's statistical revolution is still in its formative stages, but if you're looking for a guy whose traditional stats -- like Dunn's -- don't properly approximate his true offensive value, that man is Kevin Martin. 籃球數據上的革新仍舊在形成階段，但，如果你在找一位有著類似Dunn這樣的數據，而不會接近他的實際進攻價值的人，那麼那個人就是Kevin Martin。 John Krolik, writing for SLAM, explains: With his wonky game and his pedestrian 42% field goal percentage, it's easy to miss just how amazingly good of a scorer Martin is ... it's Martin's True Shooting, the best indicator of scoring efficiency available, that's really incredible- his 60% TS last season is almost unprecedented for someone who scores as much as he does. Even more amazingly, that mark was Martin's lowest TS since his rookie season, and a big step down from his last two seasons, when he recorded marks of 61.4% and 61.8%. Overall, Martin has the 2nd-highest career TS among all active players, trailing only Brent Barry. Martin is a great scorer not because of superior skills but through a carefully crafted strategy to get points in the most efficient way possible. In a lot of ways, the best comparison for Martin isn't a basketball player at all, but baseball's Adam Dunn. Dunn is an athletically unexciting player with some serious holes in his game, but he's a stat geek darling because of his ability to focus his hitting approach on hitting home runs and drawing walks -- he's long been one of the most statistically effective hitters in baseball despite his career batting average of .250. John Krolik，Slam的專欄作家解釋著：當看著他們的鳥比賽，還有他味如嚼蠟的4成2命中率，會漏掉像Martin這麼好的得分手是很容易的... 那就是Martin的真實命中率，非常好的得分效率指標，那相當不可思議；上季6成的True Shooting，那對於得分可以像他這麼多的球員幾乎史無前例的。更誇張的是，那6成04的TS是他最低的成績(自新秀年) 而過去兩季分別有6成14及6成18的水準。整體而言，Martin目前有著現役球員中生涯第二高的TS，僅次於Brent Barry。 Martin是個很棒的得分手，原因並非是他的優越的技巧，而是經過縝密的策略以達到更有效率的得分方式讓他如此的。許多方面，Martin最好的比較並不在籃球場上，而是棒球場上的Adam Dunn。 Dunn在場上不是個很高調的人，但是他卻是在數據奇才：原因是他專注在轟大炮，還有他保送上壘的能力。儘管他的生涯打擊平均只有2成5，但在統計上，他已是在棒球場上最有效率的打擊者了。 By and large, on-base percentage has now been accepted by most baseball observers as a better measurement than batting average when sizing up a player. But True Shooting Percentage still has a long way to go. You don't see the stat on any NBA broadcast or spoken about on studio shows. Skeptics might point out that any stat that regards Erick Dampier and Solomon Jones as the league's two most efficient players has limited usefulness. Yet you would agree that "average points scored when a player goes up for a shot" is a far more precise stat than "percentage of shots made ... except let's leave out free throws and count 2-point baskets the same as 3-point baskets," wouldn't you? 基本上，當評量一個球員時上壘率現今已經普遍被認為是比打擊率更好的測量方法了。而True Shooting Percentage仍舊需要時間去評斷現在你並不會在任何NBA廣播或是節目上聽到或看到這個數據。懷疑者或許會說：你看Eric Dampier還有Solomon Jones，他們是聯盟上最兩效率的兩個人耶。你同意"平均得分"是比"投籃命中率"更加準確的數據，不會嗎？ (除了忽略罰球與把兩分球同樣計算為三分球外) UPDATE: Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus e-mails: Bill James used to use a stat called secondary average, which was all a player's contributions besides batting average divided by at-bats. You can use similar logic to come up with a "secondary percentage" in basketball for everything that goes into scoring besides FG%. I just take TS% minus FG% to find secondary percentage, and would you guess who was No. 1 in the league last year? The leaders: Player Team FG% - TS% - Sec% Kevin Martin (sac): 0.420 0.601 0.181 Chauncey Billups (den): 0.418 0.592 0.174 J.J. Redick (orl): 0.388 0.559 0.171 Brent Barry (hou): 0.407 0.575 0.168 Rudy Fernandez (por): 0.425 0.588 0.163 I actually think Billups is in some ways a better poster boy because you used to hear people say he was inefficient because of his low FG%, which was of course ridiculous. 更新 -- "Basketball Prospectus" 作家Kevin Pelton 來信： Bill James曾經使用一種叫做"secondary average"的數據"，那是除了打擊率以外所有球員的貢獻度。你可以在籃球上面用類似的邏輯提供"secondary average"，來評斷除去命中率外的所有可以得分方式。我只是把TS%減去FG%來得到它，而你猜去年聯盟誰是第一名？ Top 5有： Player Team FG% TS% Sec% Kevin Martin (sac): 0.420 0.601 0.181 Chauncey Billups (den): 0.418 0.592 0.174 J.J. Redick (orl): 0.388 0.559 0.171 Brent Barry (hou): 0.407 0.575 0.168 Rudy Fernandez (por): 0.425 0.588 0.163 我的確相信Billups在某方面是個很屌的球員，因為你應該曾聽過人們說他因為他的低命中率(那當然很可笑)而效率不高。翻譯翻得好累，有錯請指正我去吃個飯... -- Tim：老穆，要不要我們兩個也組一個"大人小孩"合唱團啊？ http://tinyurl.com/mcudqx -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.171.120.35 ※ 編輯: gaiaesque 來自: 218.171.120.35 (09/09 18:39)

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