[國王暑假作業]Sergio能否在國王成功?

看板Kings作者RonArtest93 (新阿泰)時間15年前 (2009/07/06 19:27)推噓17(17推 0噓 14→)

留言31則, 15人參與討論串1/1

這篇要討論的是Sergio在國王可能會面臨的狀況在此我想先引用拓版阿機機大大PO過的外文讓大家進一步了解Sergio的狀況 http://www.blazersedge.com/fanposts/full/2 Its going to be impossible for me not to seem biased for Sergio in this post, so I'll just go ahead and own it. I've been a huge Sergio fan ever since he became a Blazer. Earlier in fact. I've been paying attention to foreign prospects for a while (I'm kind of a draft geek), and was enamored enough with Sergio, that I told a friend he was the guy we needed to select when we added that pick from PHX. To my utter astonishment, KP made my dream a reality. Ever since then, Sergio has been my favorite player on the team. 看到有Sergio討論的文章沒來參一咖總覺得心癢癢的，我是一個超級Serigo迷,在他沒有成為阿拓之前就是了，我觀察海外球員已經好一陣子了(我是個選秀怪咖) 而且極為迷戀Sergio，我告訴我朋友我們絶對要拿太陽給我們的那個籤選Sergio。真沒想到,KP居然實現了我的夢想直到現在,Serigo還是我在隊上最愛的那個人。 However, I'm a realist, well, a pessimist really. Last year after watching his play (mostly cringe inducing), I became aware of the potential parting of ways between Sergio and the Blazers. Even though I didn't like Bayless' game more than Sergio's, I had to admit, like any objective person, that he was not only the better fit with Roy, but probably the more likely long term answer for this team. Although you still have to back your guy (thanks timbo, for helping me find my passion again), I stated the obvious reasons you can't just let a guy like Sergio go and rot away on the bench (age, elite and unusual talents etc). 然而，我是個務實的人，或者說我是個悲觀主義者，去年我看他的比賽 (帶著一些死忠粉司的心)，我開始害怕起他跟拓荒者的未來。即使我不喜歡Bayless勝過Serigo，但我必須承認客觀的來講， Bayless才是長期適合和Roy搭配的那個人，但是我還是想挺Serigo, 球隊不能把他放在板凳爛掉。 (他是那麼的有未來) Then I went to that preseason game against Sacremento, and I saw the chemistry he and Rudy had on the court. It was as immediate and obvious as any combo you'll ever see play together. I fell back in love with all the things I had always loved about his game. During this early run, not only has he exhibited that rookie season flair and insanely high assist ratio we all grew to love two years ago, but you have begun to see his development as an overall basket- ball player. Most importantly to his potential future here in Portland were his improvements in two areas, his defense and his three point shooting. 然後我去看了阿拓對抗國王的熱身賽，我看到他跟Rudy產生了好的化學效應, 馬上就會想到聯盟中任何曾出現過的雙衛組合。我又重燃對Sergio的熱情，這可不是因為他前兩年就展現出來的特質如能力跟恐怖的助攻失誤比而已，Sergio也該成長成更好的更成熟的球員了。對他來說能不能在阿拓生存下去就得靠他在三分投籃跟防守上能否進步。 I know, I know, his three point percentage is average (its actually slightly above average 37%). But it actually isn't. His true three point percentage is actually above 40%. When I took a look at the box score today, and saw Sergio, Rodriguez 3/9, and 2/4 from three, I thought, that isn't the game I just saw. Those shots don't represent even his shooting impact on the game. The part I won't significantly get into here is the fact that on two of his missed shots, that he blew past the player defending him, and caused a big to challenge his shot (allowing Joel and LaMarcus to dunk off his missed layups). The part I want to get into is part of the un-stats. Specifically the half court heaves that show up on your box score, but represent zero of your ability to reason- ably and effectively hit your three point shot in a game. As it stands now, Sergio Rodriguez is 14 for 38 on the year from three (37%). 5 of those shots, or 13% of his three point shots for the year have been of the half court heave variety. 13%, I've concluded is among the highest percentages of half court heaves to three point shots in the NBA. Steve Blake by comparison, has shot 3 of them on the year (3% of his threes) . His real, honest to goodness 3 point percentage is 45/103 (106 w/ half court heaves) or 43.7%. By comparison, right now Sergio sits at 14/33 (38 w/ half court heaves) or 42.4%. When someone in the game threads throws up their arms (or like computer anology), feel free to let them know, when Sergio Rodriguez has an open three point shot, not only is it not the end of the world, it actually results in a T(otal)S(hot)% of 64%. I've compiled a list of guards that have a TS% of over 64%... Steve Nash. The point being, when you're criticizing Sergio's game this year, be fair about it. Things you're allowed to complain about on the offensive end include; Sergio's inability to finish at the rack and his inability to make supposedly easy mid range buckets... end of list 我知道，我知道他的三分球可能不出色 (37%)，但這不是表面所呈現的他真正的三分球命中率超過四成，當我看著今天的分數盒子，上面寫說 Sergio今晚命中率3/9三分線上投2/4，我就在想，這絶對有問題這些數字不能忠實的反應他在投射方面的影響力。這個部分我先提一下Sergio miss的兩個上籃都是在他過了防守者之後受到大個子干擾後沒進的球。(況且之後， LaMarcus跟大P還幫他補灌進了) 但這個不是我真的要談的部分，我真的要說的是數字無法顯示的部分，分數盒子你只能看到半場進攻的一個大概, 並沒有辦法忠實呈現你的投射能力跟你的工作效率，今年為止 Sergio的三分球投14/38 ，其中有五顆球是在球隊不同的半場節奏下攻進的在他所有的三分線出手數中佔13%。 13%,我斷定這是一個很高的數字在三分投射的領域來說，拿同隊的PG Steve Blake 來作比較的話，他今年在球隊不同半場節奏進攻下的三分球進球數只有三顆佔他總三分球出手術的僅僅3%。他真正的三分球出手命中率是 45/103 (本來是106顆中45, 三顆出手數要減掉, 因為那是球隊不同半場節奏進攻下的三分球出手) 而Sergio是14/33 (本來是38顆中14, 5顆出手數要減掉, 因為那是球隊不同半場節奏進攻下的三分球出手) 當球迷對著電腦或是在現場看球大聲罵翻sergio控檔三分沒進時，其實沒那麼嚴重，這不代表世界末日，事實上，他的T(otal)S(hot)% 命中率超過64%， Nash 也不過是這個數字以後請你們要鞭Sergio時請搞清楚方向，他只是沒有殺到籃下自行取分的能力跟穩健的中距離而已。 ,The more important improvement in Sergio's game has been on the defensive end. Because stats on this end are harder to quantify, most of you will just have to rely on what you've seen on the court. Sergio gets into his player almost immediately upon that player passing the half court line (if not sooner), and he isn't playing off of them, but he's playing really tight defense. This eliminates a lot of his natural deficiencies as an athlete. While athletic, Sergio has a tendency to get his feet crossed when defending quicker PG's. When he plays up tight on the guys, he essentially forces them to choose their path, eliminating the potential cross overs, and Ole's, that people around here love to throw at him. Due to his toughness on the defensive end, point guards really have to work to get anything at all against him. Of the stats that are quantifiable on defense, Sergio is fairing very well. In 15 minutes per game, he's averaging 0.8 steals per game, which ends up at 2.4 steals per 48, which of the qualifying PG's in the league ranks him at #12 in that category, and if you adjust for pace, he's actually closer to 2.6 steals per 48, which would put him at #8 for qualiying PG's. The better and more important numbers I have to go to 82games.com for. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2.HTM 另一個Sergio明顯進步的地方是他在防守端的表現，這方面因為數據很難質量化出來，大部分需要依靠你在球場上的觀察。 Sergio在對手敵隊過半場後給予對手的壓迫很迅速，他並不是非常強勢，但至少他有明顯的防守動作出來，這彌補了他許多在防守上體能的先天劣勢。當他防守比他快的控衛時，Sergio傾向用腳步亦步亦趨的跟著對手，這迫使他的對手不能切入，只能選擇外線的跳投，因為他在防守上的硬度，被他守的控衛必須拿出全力才能對付他數據上來說，他也是個不錯的防守者，他在15分鐘內就有0.8個抄截，而換算成48分鐘的話就是2.4次的抄截，全聯盟PG裡排第12 如果再把比賽節奏調快一點，事實上他可以有每48分鐘 2.6個抄截的能力全聯盟高居第八。 - If you go down to production by position, you'll notice that the player that Sergio defends this year averages 6 assists and over 3 turnovers per 48 minutes. Thats incredibly low production for any PG. The player he's defending this year is also shooting an abysmal 36% eFG from the floor. Of the 66 PG's in the league that qualify not a single one of them shoots less than that from the floor. Basically, once again trying to endorse fairness on BE, if we're going to fairly assess his weakness on the defensive end, we can't discuss the Ole' part of his game anymore. The worst you could say about him, based strictly on his play from this season, is that he occasionally suffers from mental lapses. It appears that physically, he will eventually be able to control, or at least mitigate to some degree opposing PG's ability to gain easy access to the painted area. He has gotten to the point, where most possessions he's involved in usually end with the PG having to give the ball up to a less adept ball handler as soon as they cross the half court line. Rarely this year have we seen someone dominate Sergio in one on one situations for even a couple possessions in a row. 如果來看和Sergio交手過的對手數據如何的話，那個成績是每48分鐘平均6助攻3失誤，這是一個很不錯的防守成績了，更別提他守到的人只有交出36%的投籃數據，聯盟66位PG每一位的平均FG%都高於36%。再一次強調，批評Sergio要批評對地方，你只能說Sergio在場外可能心情不愉快，但至少在身體上他用他的力氣去阻止，每一位PG輕易的切入籃下，每一次他參與的防守他都迫使對方PG傳給最不適宜的隊友，而且他在今年已經很少在 1 on 1上被對手吃掉。 I guess what I'd like to get from this, is some fair and honest assessment on what you think Sergio's future could be here, or with another team. And if you'd prefer the future of this team to involve him or not. Not necessarily whether you care for his game, but in an ideal world, in 3-4 years can you see, or do you want to see him on the team. If so, how? Starting? Backing up? 10 minutes per game? 20 minutes per game? etc... 我想這些資料可以供大家多了解Sergio的未來該如何，還有該去哪一隊比較好，或者無論你關不關心Sergio，能給他在隊上的定位提出更好的意見嗎？ =======================外電翻譯文完======================================== 這篇外電我認為很有趣的地方在於，他顛覆了我們對於 Sergio不會投籃不會防守這部分的印象。以數據指證出了其實他不是部會投籃，而是對自己能在不同角度下不同情況下出手保持過高的自信，從第二段我們可以看出，他不像Steve Blake一樣是個乖乖聽話的等球射手，他會去嘗試不同面向的投射，這很有趣，讓我不禁要問他適不適合在國王尋找他的第二春？我們先假設，國王未來的目標是要把EVANS打造成雙能衛在用 (這是個必要的假設) 那麼， Sergio能在以EVANS持球創造機會的系統下存活嗎？這裡能拿來比較的是他上一支待的球隊的生態，或者簡單來說他跟Roy的互動與成長的情況是如何？我們可以利用數據來一看究竟 http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM Top Five-Man Floor Units定義 “Details the performance of the top 20 most used five-man units, with percentage of total team minutes played, points scored and allowed, plus/minus and W-L stats, etc.” Top Five-Man Floor Units 這個數據是用來說明當球隊五個重要球員在場上時五個人對場上的互動是如何。由於Sergio跟Roy 本季都有機會成為實際在場上指揮攻勢的那個人所以我們拿T/O來比可能是最適合的數據，因為這是一個對手的失誤次數減去自身失誤的次數得出來的分數，與PG來說直接的關聯性最大，但要有效的以相同防守能力的陣容跟想同強度比賽來作比較否則還是會失真就是。所以我選了08-09年， Sergio好不容易比較有空間發揮的這一年來跟 Roy的數據比較，而且還特別限定了他們有相同等級防守能力得隊友的組合來作比較，以免得到的結果失真。抽樣結果如下： ┌──────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ Unit │ T/O │ │─────────────────────────│────│ │ 1 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden │ -4% │ │ │ │ │ 2 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Przybilla │ +2% │ │ │ │ │ 3 Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla │ +14% │ │ │ │ │ 4 Blake-Roy-Batum-Outlaw-Aldridge │ +6% │ │ │ │ │ 5 Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden │ -3% │ │ │ │ │ 6 Rodriguez-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Oden │ +1% │ │ │ │ └──────────────────────────────┘ 這六個數字代表什麼 ? 代表 1: Sergio獨自上場控球 2: Sergio,Roy同時上場有更好防守的隊友 3: Roy主控, 同時上場有更好防守的隊友 4: Roy主控 5: 同時擺上兩人在場上 6: 同時擺上兩人在場上同時上場有更好防守的隊友在Roy主導攻勢的組合中 T/O指數都是+分的，差別只是在換上更強防守陣容後加更多分而已，而Sergio的情況就比較複雜，你可以看到他跟防守能力強的隊友上場時，雖然+分沒比Roy好，但球隊的T/O 至少是+的，但是換上Outlaw跟比較沒經驗的Oden後，數據就下降成-的而擺上56這個陣容可以發現 Sergio在影響Roy， Roy本身帶動隊友的能力下降了 (對照3,4 T/O) ，而Sergio本身卻沒有拖累這個陣容太多 (對照1,2的 T/O) 這顯示了： 1: 要讓Serigo上場就必須有好的防守球員跟他作他搭配 2: 目前還沒有辦法看出他有帶球隊攻勢順暢大成長的態勢但至少他沒有到帶賽球隊的地步 3: 他跟另一個控球上場時會搶拍子影響到對方所以他適合國王嗎? 首先他必須要能跟隊上防守最好的Noci ， Garcia， JT做好搭配其次，他必須要在找出一個不跟Evans衝突的打法如果Evans要練控球，那他就不能重蹈跟Roy配合的覆轍要怎麼跟Evans配才不會像跟Roy配那樣 (別忘了還有一個人叫 Beno會跟他搶到底)。同時讓Sergio 在場上變魔術跟， Evans的雙衛打法能不能並存 08-09年的數據似乎並不支持，但也不是沒有那麼一絲曙光首先就是第一個： Nate McMillan在 Sergio新人年就沒有給予他好的實戰鍛鍊經驗，今年才不過是他正式推上火線稍微多一點時間的一年，但跟球隊給予Roy出道以來的發揮空間還是天差地別。我們可以大膽假設大量的實戰經驗Roy已經摸透整個球隊進攻體系而 Sergio只是單純憑他對籃球的理解天才而打出今年不錯的成績，對照今年跟去年Sergio在拓荒者搭配的五人短短的適應期還要加上時間跟先發次數的增加有限 http://www.nba.com/playerfile/sergio_rodriguez/career_stats.html http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR2.HTM http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM ，我們是應該給他一段在國王打先發PG的機會，那會是個很有趣的實驗如果他越到後面越跟隊友默契越好的話，等於打了Nate McMillan一計耳光只要不要妨礙到Evans同時的成長就好，這部分就有賴教練團的安排協調。第二個，呼應外電第一點Sergio進步的投射事實上他那篇外電是去年12/11的新聞，整季下來Sergio的三分投射次數是37-114 僅僅32.5% ，不知那位作者是否有持續追蹤這些投射並與以統計以證明 Sergio確實是具有在不同節奏變換下勇於嘗試投射的特質？ (或是有常看比賽的拓版版友來衛我們解惑一下, thanks) 如果他的確有，這樣也許他會意外的適合球隊的普林斯頓打法或 Motion的打法，因為只要他能夠不停的跑位尋找空檔，勇於嘗試出手就能將他不擅切入的缺點隱藏起來，同時也不浪費他的傳球天才。但依照目前來看，要讓Evans打控球的戰術下，普林斯頓會慢慢變成副戰術的可能性不小就是，但Motion卻有可能串聯彼此不同節奏的橋樑。當然這只是我一個很大膽的假設，真的要分析起來又是另外一個戰術話題了(因為戰術這方面我也不太懂不敢亂講XD)，這篇我只用數據佐證Sergio適不適合國王而已，如果有班門弄斧之處還請給予指正 XDD ======= 後記: Sergio沒有參加夏季聯盟真的很可惜，因為他喪失了一次跟隊上主力 (Evans , Hawes, JT) 練球的機會，及早培養與隊友的默契對現在的他而言非常重要， well......也只能希望他的自主訓練能維持好，加上季前訓練營跟熱身賽多加把勁了。總之,祝福他在這裡能有一個新的開始！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.224.24.22 ※ 編輯: RonArtest93 來自: 61.224.24.22 (07/06 19:50)

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Yocoldagain

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