[新聞] 美中x經濟x小角力
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https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20190513/us-china-trade-war/zh-hant/dual/
U.S.-China Trade Standoff May Be Initial Skirmish in Broader Economic War
WASHINGTON — A yearlong trade war between the United States and China is
proving to be an initial skirmish in an economic conflict that may persist
for decades, as both countries battle for global dominance, stature and
wealth.
Progress toward a trade agreement nearly collapsed this past week, with both
sides hardening their bargaining positions. And even if a trade deal is
reached, it may do little to resolve tensions between the world’s two
largest economies.
作為兩大國之間的經濟角力，歹戲拖棚的貿易戰最近又惡化了 會繼續拖台錢
The United States is increasingly wary of China’s emerging role in the
global economy and the tactics it uses to get ahead, including
state-sponsored hacking, acquisitions of high-tech companies in the United
States and Europe, subsidies to crucial industries and discrimination against
foreign companies.
The Trump administration has begun trying to limit China’s economic
influence in the United States and abroad, warning about China’s ambitions
in increasingly stark terms. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, compared
China’s ambitions to Russia and Iran in a speech in London last Wednesday,
saying Beijing poses “a new kind of challenge; an authoritarian regime that’
s integrated economically into the West in ways that the Soviet Union never
was.”
米國開始注意到並阻止中國在經濟方面的崛起，米國國務欽說 這是連蘇聯都沒有過的
The United States has been erecting barriers to limit Chinese investment in
American companies, re-examining the kinds of technology that can be exported
to China and restricting China’s role in building America’s next-generation
telecommunications networks, while also discouraging other countries from
using Chinese equipment.
美國對中國科技投資開始限制 禁止世界各國用中國的設備
The F.B.I. has increased its scrutiny of Chinese researchers in the United
Statesver fearshey may be acquiring intellectual secrets. Justice
Department initiatives targeting commercial espionage of American
technology, and earlier this year the United Statesnveiled a sweeping
indictmentf the Chinese telecom giant Huawei and its chief financial
officer, Meng Wanzhou, over accusations of stealing trade secrets and evading
American sanctions on Iran.
ＦＢＩ開始監控在美中國人 怕他們竊取技術 美國之前也拿華為開刀 並逮捕孟晚舟
China, whose ambition is to dominate industries of the future, is pushing
back. A column on Saturday in the Communist Party’s People’s Daily
newspaper stated, “The United States is again waving the club of tariffs
after misjudging China’s strength, capacity and will, further escalating
trade friction between our two countries.”
The piece was written under the pen name Zhong Sheng — the “voice of China
” — a name used when the paper publishes comments on foreign affairs that
are authoritative.
中國的目標是要稱霸未來科技 人民日報說 美國低估中國
Restraining China’s ambitions and methods is a tricky task — and there is
concern that the Trump administration’s effort is creating a new red scare,
fueling discrimination against China and its citizens that could ultimately
hurt the United States. As many as 30 Chinese professors have had their visas
to the United States canceled in the past year, or been put on administrative
review,ccording to Chinese academics and their American counterparts.
“We’ve got decades of painful negotiating with China ahead,” said David
Lampton, a China scholar at Stanford University. Mr. Lampton said a trade
deal, if reached, would do little to resolve the bigger conflict. “It’s
just a skirmish in an ongoing battle.”
我川政府對中國人的限制可能到頭來會傷害美國，去年就有好幾位中國學者限制入境美國
。一位史丹佛學者說 貿易戰只是兩大國正式開戰前的小角力。
Chinese negotiators returned to Beijing over the weekend without a trade
agreement and with even larger economic barriers between the two countries.
The Trump administration raised tariffs on $200 billion in exports on Friday
and said it wouldove aheadith the legal process of taxing another
roughly $300 billion of products at the same 25 percent rate.
中國貿易談判專家並沒有帶回來好消息，反而使關稅力度加大至25趴
The two countries could yet come to an agreement that opens opportunities for
businesses and rolls back the levies they have placed on each other. Both
American and Chinese officials said on Friday that they would continue to
talk and could meet in Beijing next month. Liu He, China’s vice premier,
called the failure to reach a deal “just a small setback in the talks
between two countries,” while Mr. Trump, in a tweet, described the talks as
“candid and constructive.”
雖然雙方還沒達成共識，但未來會繼續談。劉鶴跟我川都說這次談判有進步
While a trade deal could calm some tensions and establish more good will
between the two nations, it is unlikely to achieve many of the ambitious
goals that the administration has set for itself. Mr. Trump’s advisers, in
particular the United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, have
been focused on what the administration calls China’s practices of “
economic aggression.”
But the administration has struggled to address the immensity of the problems
in the text of a trade deal. People close to the talks say that the
negotiators appear powerless to force any changes that aren’t in China’s
interest.
Mr. Liu, who is leading China’s team in the trade negotiations, hinted at
that uphill battle in a video statement released by the official Xinhua news
agency.
“Now both sides have reached consensus in many respects, but frankly there
are also areas of disagreement,” he said. “We believe that these are major
matters of principle, and any country has its own important principles — we
can’t make concessions on matters of principle.”
雙方談判面臨的困難是 對於中國沒利益的項目 中國不太讓步 劉鶴說 在大部分地方雙方
都有共識，但有些地方中國是有原則的 越過原則 免談
Despite punishing tariffs already on nearly half of Chinese exports to the
United States, Beijing is still resisting many of the most significant
changes that the administration seeks. It has been reluctant to roll back
subsidies for advanced manufacturing industries or to make public commitments
to stop cybertheft.
即使加大關稅已經對大部分中國輸美產品課稅了，但中國政府依舊不願意放棄對高科技產
業的補貼以及公開承諾對網路盜竊的停止
Instead, a trade deal between the two countries seems more likely to bring
change around the margins — tens of billions of dollars of soybean
purchases, some tariffs lifted and changes to the text of Chinese laws or
regulations that the country might ultimately disregard, particularly once
another administration occupies the White House.
“This is a decades-long endeavor,” said Robert Daly, the director of the
Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. “This
can’t be waved away over cake at Mar-a-Lago.”
相反的，許多事是處在變更的邊緣，一但美國換黨執政後中國可能就不鳥了，例如：是否
要購買大數量的黃豆
The notion that the United States has one last shot to change China’s
behavior is held by an array of people on both sides of the political
spectrum. But it is an aggressive notion of American power to upend a rival
system that has delivered prosperity for its people and put China on course
to be the world’s largest economy.
Many in China see the United States as a declining power bent on enforcing
its will on a world that no longer cowers before its hegemonic might. The
troubles in American democracy and the long economic slump after 2008
persuaded many in China that its instincts to chart its own course were
correct. In the eyes of many Chinese, their country is simply reclaiming its
historic status as a dominant regional power in Asia.
許多中國人相信美國在08海嘯之後就一厥不振，正走向衰落。相反的中國正在崛起，未來
將會取代中國取回曾經世界霸主的地位
It has also projected power across Asia, Africa and elsewhere while the
United States has, on many fronts, retreated from its post-World War II
commitment to the global order. But it has done so with little application of
military force, in sharp contrast to what many in China see as American
militarism.
Many in China have sought to avoid a trade conflict, which could have a
larger impact on their economy than the United States’. But they have long
thought the United States would have a difficult time accepting a true peer
in economic, technology and military power, so consider the management of
conflict with the United States to be an inevitable result of their own rise.
就在美國從中東、非洲撤回從二戰之後辛苦建立的勢力，中國也正在這些地方建立自己的
勢力取代美國。許多中國人想避免貿易戰，但認為在中國崛起的過程中，與美國的摩擦不
可避免
While the Trump administration accused China of breaking a trade deal, China’
s resistance to the emerging terms stemmed from its belief that the United
States was asking too much and offering too little in return. Many of the
changes the United States seeks would limit what Chinese officials regard as
a tried-and-true approach of using tens of billions of dollars from
state-owned banks and government investment funds to turn previously small
industries like car production or solar panel manufacturing into the largest
industries of their kind in the world.
當川普政府控訴中方沒有談判誠意時，中國說是美國要求太多但給太少。其中一項美國要
求改變的項目是 要中國別再用補貼的方式讓小產業變世界級巨頭（太陽能面板之類的）
And the Chinese view some of the Trump administration’s demands as
infringing on their sovereignty and giving America too much power over their
economy — including requiring the country to codify changes through
legislation in the National People’s Congress. To the increasingly
nationalistic public in China, the American requests are reminiscent of9th
century historyf unequal treaties forced on the country by foreign powers.
中方觀點任為美方管太多，連怎麼立法都要管，這跟19世紀簽署的不平等條約很像
Mr. Trump on Saturday suggested China was simply delaying a deal in the hopes
that a Democrat would win election in 2020 and continued his pugilistic
approach, saying “the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be
negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love
collecting BIG TARIFFS!”
In the United States, China’s unwillingness to bow to America’s demands is
uniting lawmakers like the Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer of New
York, and Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida.
That is a significant shift from the prevailing view in the United States
since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 that close economic engagement with
China would produce an increasingly democratic country that would be closely
tied to an international economic order founded mainly on Western liberal
ideals.
That has not happened.
川普在週六時說中國只想拖，以為換黨後就沒事了。門都沒有！我第二任後會讓他們更難
看，所以最好現在就跪下去吹。中國不願意讓步也讓美國國會更加團結。改變從1970以來
認為更親中可以讓中國更民主、更有錢、更能掌貼近西方的經濟體系。ＮＯ從沒發生過。
China has indeed grown in prosperity, leaping into the ranks of what the
World Bank defines as upper-middle income countries. Its economy is now
bigger than any other country except the United States. Its manufacturing
sector is now bigger than those ofhe United States, Germany and South
Korea combined.
中國的確發大財了，變成除美國外的首富。其製造業也比美德這些垃圾加起來還強
But in the last five years, China has veered toward increasingly repressive
authoritarianism at home and a rapid military buildup. The State Department
estimates that Beijing has put 800,000 to two million Muslims in hastily
built internment camps ringed with barbed wire in northwestern China. The
Chinese government has built an archipelago of air bases on artificial
islands in the South China Sea in between Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and
the Philippines. And China nowas the world’s largest navynd has
conducted military exercises as far away as East Africa and the Baltic Sea.
在過去五年，中國住海邊開始越管越寬。新疆再教育。南海武力過張。因為有最大的海軍
群就在其他地方對各國叫囂。
On the economic front, the competition is even fiercer. Trump administration
officials warn that China is trying to dominate the global 5G infrastructure
that will be the basis for future mobile communications and is competing to
set other technological standards that will determine which global companies
win.
在經濟，科技面。中國5G領先世界。川普對於這種會對未來通訊領導技術被中國掌握覺得
不行。
China is extending low-cost loans and building infrastructure around the
globe through its One Belt, One Road program, which critics warn is making
poorer countries beholden to China. It is out-investing the United States in
some high-tech industries, and is gaining dominance in certain segments, like
mobile payment, new energy vehicles and areas of artificial intelligence.
且中國用一代一路在各地大撒幣。許多人擔心這會讓窮國更加被中國掌控。且中國在許多
領域的投資已經超越美國。例如行動支付
While American companies have long hankered for access to China’s growing
market, their position has begun to shift as they see China’s practices and
treatment of foreign companies. A survey released by the American Chamber of
Commerce in China in February showed that the majority of its members favored
retaining tariffs on Chinese goods while trade negotiations continued.
正當美國試圖撬開中國的市場大門。美國人對中國的態度也變了。根據調查，許多美國人
覺得要繼續打。
China’s own experts say that the Beijing leadership has been caught off
guard by the pace of change in American perceptions of Sino-American
relations.
“Even if there is some kind of agreement between Xi and Trump, in the long
run the strategic bilateral relationship is already in trouble,” said Zhang
Jian, a professor in the School of Government at Peking University. “There
is no coming back, even if there is a deal.”
但中國專家說，回不去了 即便包子跟我川簽有協議，但中美關係。中必贏的局面回不去
了
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05/23 17:48,
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