[編譯] 北韓「核能」反應
Nuclear reaction
Jan 24th 2013, 8:28 by H.T. | TOKYO
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/01/north-korean-sanctions
SOUTH KOREAN officials believe that when North Korea next conducts a nuclear
test, it will be a small one. That is nothing to be reassured about. The
test, they reckon, will be aimed at creating a nuclear device small enough to
fit on the tip of the 100kg satellite-bearing rocket that it launched into
orbit in December. That, when North Korea masters re-entry technology, could
eventually be aimed at the United States.
南韓官員相信，北韓第三次測試，將進行小型核武試爆，這是可以肯定的。
他門認為這次測試的目標，在於製造出小到可以放在一百公斤衛星所用的火箭上，
就像他們在去年十二月發射的光明星三號一樣。而這些動作最後的目的，就是美國。
On January 24th, the threat of a test became all the more ominous when North
Korea reacted vehemently to a UN Security Council resolution two days earlier
stiffening sanctions against the regime over its rocket launch. In an
unusually explicit declaration of its hostile intent carried by the state
Korean Central News Agency, it said it would carry out another nuclear test
as part of an “all-out action” targeted at America.
一月二十四日，當北韓對兩天前聯合國最新制裁決議，採取強烈反應時
核武測試的威脅變得更加凶險。在這次罕見、露骨地表明敵意的聲明中，
表明了北韓會進行下一次核武試爆，作為針對美國的「全力一搏」的一部分。
Such a test would seriously undermine the hopes of the Obama administration
and incoming South Korean President Park Geun-hye for more engagement with
North Korea under its young new leader, Kim Jong Un. The UNSC resolution,
which extends asset freezes and travel bans, promises further “significant
action” if Pyongyang conducts a nuclear test, or launches another rocket.
北韓核武試爆，將嚴重傷害歐巴馬政府，以及即將上任的朴槿惠總統，希望加深與年輕
領袖金正恩帶領下的北韓，之間關係的如意算盤。聯合國安理會這則擴大資產凍結
、旅遊限制的決議，承諾一旦北韓方面進核武測試，或是發射另一枚火箭，將採取
進一步「明確」動作。
That sets the stage for a new round of heightened tensions in the region. It
would show that yet again the North Korean regime is prepared to flout
international rules, even though by doing so it materially affects the
livelihood of its people. The more tension there is, the less food and other
aid goes into the north. But Pyongyang may have calculated, partly based on
past experience, that even if a nuclear test is met with strong international
condemnation, it may still be able to re-engage with the outside world when
the dust settles.
這讓該區域進入一個高度緊張的全新回合。這也再度顯示，北韓如何藐視國際秩序，
即便在物質上，執行這些規範會影響北韓人民的生計。這個區域愈緊張，就愈少食物
以及其他援助進入北韓。但平壤當局也算計著，部份根據過去經驗，即便核子試爆當下
遭逢強大國際譴責，當塵埃落定，他也許還有辦法重新與外界建立關係。
So far, North Korea has been able to bypass some of the economic impact of
sanctions through mushrooming trade with China, which was initially unwilling
to support the UNSC resolution, according to diplomatic sources. It was not
immediately clear why China changed its mind to back the increased sanctions.
But it would be helpful if it issued a warning against the consequence of a
nuclear test as loudly as other nearby countries will, and strived to use the
economic lifeline it provides to the north to enhance its leverage.
透過與中國蓬勃發展的貿易，目前北韓已經能夠撐過某些程度的經濟制裁。
根據外交來源消息，中國起初並不打算支持這則安理會決議。
目前仍不清楚為何中國最後轉而投下贊成票，
但如果中國和其他週邊國家一樣，對於北韓核武測試採取同樣強度的警告，
並且運用經濟，民生方面影響力影響北韓
這將會很有幫助。
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