[新聞] The reality of American decline

看板IA作者IanDragon (海闊天空)時間14年前 (2012/02/10 18:34)推噓8(8推 0噓 31→)

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標題：The reality of American decline 新聞來源：Financial Times 2012.02.05 http://tinyurl.com/6uz7bv5 By Edward Luce Something puzzling just happened in Washington: a liberal American president who opposed the invasion of Iraq endorsed one of its chief neoconservative advocates. By embracing Robert Kagan’s essay, “The Myth of America’s Decline”, Barack Obama has done the author a turn. The essay is excerpted from Mr Kagan’s book, The World that America Made, which comes out later this month. “America is back,” Mr Obama said in his State of the Union address 10 days ago. “Anyone who tells you America is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” Mr Obama “loved” the Kagan essay, Tom Donilon, the national security adviser, later revealed on the talkshow presented by Charlie Rose. The president had gone over it point by point at a White House meeting. Mr Kagan, who also wrote Americans are from Mars, Europeans are from Venus, the provocative post-Iraq book, has written a clear and powerfully-argued essay. But Mr Obama might want to scan it more closely. Start with its economic facts. Mr Kagan says that in 1969 the US had “roughly a quarter” of the world’s income. “Today it still produces roughly a quarter,” Kagan wrote. “America’s share of the world’s GDP has held remarkably steady.” That would seem pretty conclusive. Here are more precise measures. In 1969, the US accounted for 36 per cent of global income at market prices, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. America’s share had fallen to 31 per cent by 2000. Then it started to plummet. By 2010, the US accounted for just 23.1 per cent of world income. In one decade America lost 7 per cent of world share. More than half that loss occurred before the Great Recession. China’s economy, meanwhile, was barely an eighth the size of the US’s in 2000. Today it is 41 per cent – and that is based on current exchange rates. Were Beijing to float the renminbi, China’s economy could be valued considerably higher. Far from being “remarkably steady”, the shift over the past decade has been uniquely rapid by any historic measure. Another decade like that and America’s pre-eminence will look very shaky. Indeed, as Arvind Subramanian writes, China would surpass the US within 12 years even if its growth slowed to 7 per cent a year and the US hit an unlikely annual pace of 3 per cent. But the book’s real subject is American exceptionalism. Mr Kagan believes that it is largely up to Americans to decide whether their country’s dominance will continue. In a clear echo of the author’s criticisms of Bill Clinton in the 1990s, Mr Kagan fears the US is losing its will for muscular world leadership. “In the end, the decision is in the hands of Americans,” he writes. “Decline, as Charles Krauthammer [a commentator] has observed, is a choice.” And here we arrive at the book’s main puzzle. Mr Kagan denies America is in relative decline – and mistakenly insists there is no economic evidence for it. Yet he argues that America’s decline is being actively willed by unnamed “politicians and policymakers”. They are “in danger of committing pre-emptive superpower suicide out of a misplaced fear of declining power”. It is a tension that runs through the book. If America isn’t declining, who cares? If, on the other hand, America is willing its decline, who are these lemmings exactly? One clue would be Mr Obama. Here is an even richer clue from Mitt Romney (to whom Mr Kagan serves as a senior foreign policy adviser): “Our president thinks America is in decline,” the Republican frontrunner recently said. “It is if he [Obama] is president. It is not if I am president.” It would be only a mild exaggeration to take Mr Romney’s following words as a summary of Mr Kagan’s core thesis. “President Obama believes America’s role as leader in the world is a thing of the past,” Mr Romney said in Florida last week. “I will insist on a military so powerful no one would ever think of challenging it.” In practise, Mr Obama has negotiated a modest, and arguably illusory, trim to the US defence budget – 8 per cent in the next decade from a generous baseline. US military spending will still be far higher after the cuts have gone through than it was on the eve of September 11. Mr Romney promises to reverse them. Mr Kagan believes America’s future will hinge largely on taking a very different turn to the one in which US foreign policy and the Pentagon is apparently headed. The continuation of the international liberal order depends on the presence of a strong and active US, he argues. Imagine a scenario where China became the top dog, he says. Would it uphold the system that got it there? Mr Kagan answers by way of a fable. A frog agrees to carry a scorpion on his back across the river on the promise he will not be stung. “How can I sting you when I would also drown?” asks the scorpion. As the frog drowns, it asks why the scorpion broke its word: “ Because I am a scorpion,” comes the reply. With that Mr Kagan pretty much dismisses two generations of China strategy. The wealth China has earned by global integration, and the numbers lifted from poverty, may in the end count for little against its true nature, he suggests. Which brings us back to the main quandary: the book’s real target is American declinists; yet America’s declinist-in-chief loves its thesis. Who knows, perhaps it is one of those instances of co-option at which presidents excel. In which case, it is fair to ask who is carrying whom? === Dr Robert Kagan 回應反駁 === February 7, 2012 US share is still about a quarter of global GDP http://tinyurl.com/73whpea Sir, Edward Luce’s critique of my book The World America Made rests almost entirely on a disputed figure for US share of global gross domestic product. My argument that the US share has remained at roughly a quarter of world GDP since 1969 rests on the US government’s figures, which can be found at www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/. Mr Luce cites as his source the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. However, even according to that database (which can be found at www.econstats.com/weo/V012.htm), the US share of global GDP, measured in purchasing power parity, was a little over 24 per cent in 1980 (the database does not go back farther), a little over 23 per cent in 2000, and a little over 21 per cent prior to the recession that began in 2008. This is not a world-altering shift in economic weight. But even if Mr Luce’s numbers were the only measure out there, it is simplistic to judge the distribution of power in the international system entirely on the basis of the size of a nation’s economy. China’s economy was also the largest in the world in 1800. Mr Luce does not address such complicating matters as the fact that China’s per capita GDP is a small fraction of that of the US. There is a far more sophisticated argument for China’s growing economic power, presented by Arvind Subramanian in his book Eclipse, which I acknowledge and address in my book. Robert Kagan, Washington, DC, US === 新華網摘譯內容 === 美國衰落的真相新華國際 2012年02月10日 http://tinyurl.com/7jqspkf 譯者：何黎摘譯主要內容如下：　　華盛頓最近發生了一件讓人困惑的事：一位反對入侵伊拉克的自由派美國總統，對一位新保守主義學者、同時也是入侵伊拉克的主要支持者之一予以了認可。Barack Obama肯定了Robert Kagan的文章——《美國衰落之謎》（The Myth of America’s Decline），他對這位作者的態度也因此有了180度的轉變。這篇文章摘自Kagan所著的《美國制造的世界》（The World that America Made），該書將於本月晚些時候出版。　　Obama在數日前發表的國情咨文演講中說，“美國回來了”。“那些告訴你美國正走向衰落、或我們的影響力正在減弱的人，根本不知道自己在說什麼。”美國國家安全顧問 Tom Donilon後來在Charlie Rose主持的一檔脫口秀節目中透露，總統“很喜歡”Kagan的這篇文章。Obama曾在一次白宮會議上將這篇文章的觀點逐項分析了一遍。　　Kagan還著有《歐洲人來自火星，美國人來自金星》（Europeans are from Mars, Americans are from Venus），那是一本帶有煽動性色彩的、論述後伊拉克戰爭時代的書。《美國衰落之謎》這篇文章觀點清晰，論證有力。不過，Obama或許應該更細緻地將該文研讀一番——首先從該文羅列的經濟事實開始。Kagan提到，1969年時，美國佔世界收入的“四分之一左右”。“如今，它依然佔四分之一左右，”Kagan寫道，“美國在全球 GDP中所佔的比例相當穩定。” 　　這一事實貌似確鑿無疑。但這裡有一些更準確的數字。根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF ）的《世界經濟展望》（World Economic Outlook），以市場價格衡量，1969年時，美國佔全球收入的36%。到2000年時，這一比例降至31%。隨後，該數字開始直線下滑。到2010 年時，美國在全球收入中所佔比例僅為23.1%。在10年的時間裡，美國的佔比下滑了7個百分點。這一下滑有一半以上是出現在“大衰退”（Great Recession）之前。　　另一方面，2000年時，中國的經濟規模僅相當於美國的八分之一。今天，這一比例已升至41%，而且這還是基於當前匯率得出的。如果北京方面允許人民幣匯率自由浮動，中國經濟的估值還將大幅提高。無論以哪種重要指標衡量，過去十年間的這種變化都難稱“ 相當穩定”；相反，這種變化可謂極其迅速。要是下個十年也是如此，美國的領先地位將岌岌可危。　　不過，《美國制造的世界》一書真正的主題是美國例外論。Kagan認為，從很大程度上來說，決定美國霸主地位能否延續下去的是美國人自己。他擔心，美國正在喪失掌控世界霸權的意願。這一觀點也是對作者本人在上世紀90年代對Bill Clinton所作批評的清晰呼應。“歸根結底，決定權掌握在美國人手中。”他寫道，“就像（評論人士）Charles Krauthammer所指出的，衰落是一種選擇。” 　　下面我們來談談該書的最大疑問。Kagan否認美國已處在相對衰落之中，並錯誤地堅持認為沒有經濟上的證據證明這一點。然而他卻宣稱，一些他未提及姓名的“政客和政策制定者”正在主動促成美國的衰落。這些人“出於對臆想中的衰落的恐懼，很可能貿然採取相應對策，把一個超級大國引上自殺之路。” 這種自我矛盾貫穿全書。假如美國並未處在衰落之中，那麼人們為何要關注這個問題？另一方面，如果美國正主動促成自身的衰落，那麼到底誰是那些“旅鼠”呢？線索之一指向 Obama。Mitt Romney（Kagan擔任其高級外交政策顧問）的一番話提供了更加豐富的線索：“我們的總統認為美國正處在衰落之中。”在共和黨總統候選人提名戰中“領跑”的 Romney近日表示，“如果Obama是總統，那麼事情就是這樣。如果我是總統，事情便不會如此。” 　　若用Romney下面這番話作為對Kagan核心論點的總結，雖然有些誇張，卻並不過分。 “Obama總統認為，美國扮演世界領袖角色的時代已經過去，”Romney近日在佛羅裡達州說，“我堅持認為美國應當擁有足夠強大的軍力，以至於永遠不會有人想對它提出挑戰。 ” 　　實際上，Obama已同相關方面商定小幅（可以說不具實質意義）削減美國國防預算— —未來十年將在目前龐大國防預算的基礎上削減8%。削減後的美國軍費開支仍比“9‧11 ”前夕高出許多。而Romney承諾將取消削減軍費開支的計劃。　　Kagan認為，美國的未來在很大程度上將取決於實行一種明顯不同於以往的政策，通過這種轉變，美國的外交政策和國防政策顯然將成為國家事務的重中之重。他指出，國際自由秩序的延續有賴於一個強大而活躍的美國身影。讓我們回到上面那個令人不解的問題上：這本書真正的矛頭所指是美國的衰落主義者，而美國的頭號衰落主義者卻很欣賞書中的觀點。天曉得這是怎麼一回事。也許這就是總統們所擅長的那種“為己所用”吧。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.119.53.78

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