[編譯] In Carter's Shadow〈卡特的陰影〉

看板IA作者qilai (人生何處不糟糕)時間16年前 (2008/06/03 16:03)推噓13(13推 0噓 8→)

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這篇文章是TIME雜誌上的評論。因為文章不長且用字較簡易，符合我的程度，就試著譯了出來。有些地方是意譯的，有錯請指正。 http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1810056,00.html In Carter's Shadow 〈卡特的陰影〉作者：拉姆希．波奴魯（RAMESH PONNURU） 2008年5月28日（三） The ghost of Jimmy Carter is haunting the 2008 campaign. Well, let me restate that: the ghost of his presidency haunts the 2008 campaign. As for Carter, he certainly has not passed on; he is an active freelance diplomat and campaign consultant. In recent days he has told Hillary Clinton to "give it up" in June and estimated the size of Israel's nuclear stockpile. (Other previous Presidents have kept tactfully silent about its very existence.) Earlier, both John McCain and Barack Obama had felt compelled to denounce Carter's meeting with representatives of Hamas. Carter's almost predictable intrusions into the news have done little to sway events, but they have conjured memories of a past that the current President and his two would-be successors are trying not to repeat. 　　吉米．卡特的幽靈在2008年大選中遊蕩。好吧，再說一次：他的總統任期在2008年大選中遊蕩，卡特本人當然還健在；他是位活躍的自由外交家與競選顧問。最近他還告訴希拉蕊．柯林頓該在六月「放棄」，並且估計以色列的核武存量（其他前總統通常連核武是否存在的問題都會技巧地迴避）。早先約翰．麥肯和巴拉克．歐巴馬不得不譴責卡特與哈瑪斯代表的會面。卡特這些並不出人意料的攪局對情勢影響不大，但它們卻喚起了現任總統與他兩位可能的繼任者都不願重演的過去的記憶。 Start with President George W. Bush, whose deep unpopularity has set the tone for the campaign. In the late 1970s, the public came to regard Carter as a failed President, and his failure colored attitudes toward his party for more than a decade. Republicans tied Democrat after Democrat to the stagflation and foreign policy weakness of that era. Now Republicans worry that perceptions of Bush are going to hurt them for a generation. 　　首先是喬治．W．布希總統，他的不受歡迎決定了這次選舉的調性。在1970年代晚期，公眾認為卡特是失敗的總統，而他的失敗也歪曲了民主黨的形象十多年之久。共和黨人把民主黨和那個時期的經濟停滯與外交軟弱聯繫在一起。如今共和黨人擔心對布希的看法會傷害他們一整代人。 Voters who came of age in the 1980s were strongly Republican, thinking Ronald Reagan had brought America back. By contrast, young people today identify themselves as strongly Democratic. They disapprove of Bush and the Iraq war in large percentages, worry about their economic futures and have started paying attention to politics at a time when Republicans have often been making the news for incompetence and scandal. 　　1980年代成長的選民是忠貞的共和黨人，他們認為隆納德．雷根復興了美國。相對於此，今天的年輕人自認為忠貞的民主黨人。他們大部分反對布希和伊拉克戰爭，擔心未來生計，並且在一個共和黨經常爆出無能、醜聞事件的時代開始注意政治。 Bush probably thought he had avoided going down as a failure when he won a second term, which had eluded Carter (and Bush's father). But the only sure way for him to escape that fate is for a Republican to win the presidency this year. Reagan would have seemed a less transformative figure if Michael Dukakis had succeeded him, and Bill Clinton would have had a deeper impact on his party and the country if Al Gore had won in 2000. Whatever their past differences, Bush has ample reason to root for McCain now. 　　布希連任成功時（這一關難倒了卡特和他父親），可能以為自己成功避免了失敗。但他想擺脫此命運的唯一明確道路就是幫助共和黨贏得今年的總統大選。如果麥可．杜卡吉斯成為總統，雷根可能不會成為這麼有轉變性的人物；如果阿爾．高爾2000年獲勝，比爾．柯林頓將對他的黨與國家有更大的影響力。不管他們過去有哪些歧異，布希現在有充裕的理由力挺麥肯。 Of the two likely nominees this year, Obama is closest to Carter in background and policy leanings. The parallels between his campaign so far and the one Carter ran in 1976 are striking. Like Carter, Obama had little national experience when he started to run. Neither was given much chance of winning the nomination. Instead of running on a detailed platform, Carter told crowds that what Washington needed was "a government as good as its people"—just as Obama promises "change we can believe in." Carter's message sold well after Richard Nixon's disgrace, and press accounts from the time suggest that people found the born-again Carter to be charismatic. That parallel is a promising one for Obama. 　　在今年兩位可能的候選人中，歐巴馬的背景與政策傾向最像卡特。他至今的選戰與 1976年卡特打的選戰相似得驚人。就像卡特，歐巴馬開始競選時沒有多少全國性資歷。兩者原本都沒有多少機會。卡特沒有繁瑣的政見，他對群眾說：華盛頓需要「像它的人民一樣好的政府」──就像歐巴馬許諾的「我們相信改變」。在尼克森的汙名與媒體開始認為人民發現重生的卡特的魅力之後，卡特的口號大受歡迎。對歐巴馬而言這是個前途無量的相似之處。 But his Carterish echoes come with two potential dangers. The first is that running as the embodiment of hope can lend itself to a certain self-righteousness—what critics have already started to call élitism. The second danger is that the public will come to see Obama as naive about America's enemies abroad, as it eventually concluded Carter was. Ever since Obama said he was willing to negotiate with those enemies directly and "without precondition," Republicans have been trying to tag him as the son of the Georgia governor. 　　然而他這種卡特式的重演有兩個潛在危險。其一，以希望的化身的形象打選戰可能陷入自以為是──這已經開始被批判為菁英主義。其二是公眾將認為歐巴馬對美國的外敵過於天真，就像卡特被認為的。自從歐巴馬說他要和這些敵人直接交涉而且「不設前提」，共和黨便企圖將他標籤為那位喬治亞州州長之子。 And what about McCain? The Arizona Senator, who once joked about bombing Iran, may seem to be the opposite of Carter. But Republicans should consider what he has in common with the ex-President as well. Both men attended the U.S. Naval Academy, and their years in the Navy were, by their own accounts, deeply formative. There are more worrying parallels for McCain. When Carter won in 1976, Democrats thought they had gotten a new lease on life. Democrats ran the White House and Congress, and the congressional leadership was more liberal than ever before. But Carter's win was an anomaly in a nation that was at the time moving rightward. Carter had eked out a paper-thin victory only because of Watergate, stagflation and defeat in Vietnam. McCain might win a narrow victory this year by running away from his party, but conservatism is fading now as liberalism was fading in the '70s. Not even winning this year's presidential race will be enough to revive it—unless, as President, McCain refashions conservatism for a new era. Carter made his presidency the servant of a dying creed. Would McCain make the same mistake? 　　那麥肯呢？這位曾開玩笑說要轟炸伊朗的亞利桑那州參議員，似乎是卡特的相反。但共和黨人應該考慮他與那位前總統亦有相似之處。他們都唸過美國海軍學院，並且據他們自稱也都受到很大影響。還有更令人擔憂的共同點：當1976年卡特獲勝，民主黨人以為他們得到了新的終身租約。民主黨控制白宮與國會，而且國會領導層比以往還自由派。但卡特的勝選在全國開始右傾的時代實為一異數。卡特那薄如白紙的勝利只是因為水門事件、經濟停滯與越南的失敗才勉強得到的。麥肯也許會靠著與自黨保持距離而險勝，但保守主義在當今的凋零就像1970年代自由主義的凋零那般，即使今年的總統大選勝選也不足以復興之──除非麥肯總統能翻新保守主義使之適應新時代。卡特使自己的總統任期成為一種瀕死信條的奴僕，麥肯會不會犯相同的錯呢？ Obama and McCain will spend the fall fighting to be the 44th President. Both they and Bush will also fight to avoid any comparisons with the 39th. 　　歐巴馬和麥肯將在秋天為出任第44任總統而鬥爭。他們和布希也將為避免有任何類似於第39任總統之處而鬥爭。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.228.194.130

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