[閒聊] 世界大賽冰法殘局分析-燙是對的?
大家安安
這是影片網址: https://goo.gl/eGJlJK
在影片中有做一些假設 所以出來的數字也不是100%準確
現在看看其實第二個樹狀圖 有一些紕漏XDDD
如果大家喜歡的話 之後有機會可能也會繼續嘗試這類型的影片
謝謝 =)
--
註:後來發現無法下雙唬爛與背刺幻光元素(因為是5/5)
不過唬爛海賊對於第二個樹狀圖一樣會帶來影響
(在點血法直接抽麥迪文的狀況中 因為沒有考慮唬爛海賊 所以麥迪文會活下去
並推兩點傷害到盜賊臉上 使的下輪有 雙火球 英雄能力的斬殺)
然後 莢果唬爛海賊 還是會有 無法開賽 火源門 與 強秘彈 的影響(水晶不足)
第一個樹狀圖中 以燙的視角來看的話
因為對手已有唬爛一次+抽一張牌 所以死亡率會更高(但沒有計算)
而我們假設抽到唬爛必死 則會高估死亡率 所以可以互補一下這個部分
對觀眾而言 以上帝視角計算 應該也比較能夠接受
還有第二個樹狀圖
見習之後抽冰箱
好像不該直接蓋冰箱 這樣才會有 下輪無論抽甚麼都贏的狀況
(應該 直接 冰霜新星 下輪蓋冰箱後必勝)
也就是其實 點血法=>見習=>冰箱 後 不蓋冰箱雖然犧牲 穩健1/3 神抽寒冰箭的勝率
不過會買到 下輪無論抽甚麼都贏的勝率 (1*44.24%>1/3)
也就是樹狀圖上有錯
然後youtube下有人在問 點血法抽麥迪文為何是44.2%贏
因為抽麥迪文後 裸下麥迪文 冰霜新星
下輪 麥迪文打臉(2) + 雙火球(12) + 英雄能力(1) = 15 收工
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.164.122.13
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Hearthstone/M.1497526235.A.9CD.html
推
06/15 19:35, , 1F
06/15 19:35, 1F
推
06/15 19:37, , 2F
06/15 19:37, 2F
推
06/15 19:41, , 3F
06/15 19:41, 3F
推
06/15 19:49, , 4F
06/15 19:49, 4F
推
06/15 19:50, , 5F
06/15 19:50, 5F
推
06/15 19:50, , 6F
06/15 19:50, 6F
推
06/15 19:51, , 7F
06/15 19:51, 7F
推
06/15 19:52, , 8F
06/15 19:52, 8F
→
06/15 19:52, , 9F
06/15 19:52, 9F
→
06/15 19:53, , 10F
06/15 19:53, 10F
推
06/15 19:55, , 11F
06/15 19:55, 11F
推
06/15 19:55, , 12F
06/15 19:55, 12F
推
06/15 19:56, , 13F
06/15 19:56, 13F
推
06/15 19:56, , 14F
06/15 19:56, 14F
→
06/15 19:58, , 15F
06/15 19:58, 15F
推
06/15 20:02, , 16F
06/15 20:02, 16F
推
06/15 20:03, , 17F
06/15 20:03, 17F
→
06/15 20:03, , 18F
06/15 20:03, 18F
推
06/15 20:04, , 19F
06/15 20:04, 19F
噓
06/15 20:05, , 20F
06/15 20:05, 20F
噓
06/15 20:08, , 21F
06/15 20:08, 21F
推
06/15 20:12, , 22F
06/15 20:12, 22F
推
06/15 20:13, , 23F
06/15 20:13, 23F
推
06/15 20:16, , 24F
06/15 20:16, 24F
→
06/15 20:17, , 25F
06/15 20:17, 25F
推
06/15 20:22, , 26F
06/15 20:22, 26F
推
06/15 20:22, , 27F
06/15 20:22, 27F
推
06/15 20:23, , 28F
06/15 20:23, 28F
推
06/15 20:24, , 29F
06/15 20:24, 29F
推
06/15 20:28, , 30F
06/15 20:28, 30F
推
06/15 20:28, , 31F
06/15 20:28, 31F
推
06/15 20:31, , 32F
06/15 20:31, 32F
推
06/15 20:32, , 33F
06/15 20:32, 33F
推
06/15 20:33, , 34F
06/15 20:33, 34F
推
06/15 20:33, , 35F
06/15 20:33, 35F
推
06/15 20:47, , 36F
06/15 20:47, 36F
→
06/15 20:51, , 37F
06/15 20:51, 37F
推
06/15 20:52, , 38F
06/15 20:52, 38F
→
06/15 20:52, , 39F
06/15 20:52, 39F
還有 29 則推文
還有 1 段內文
→
06/15 22:07, , 69F
06/15 22:07, 69F
推
06/15 22:13, , 70F
06/15 22:13, 70F
→
06/15 22:13, , 71F
06/15 22:13, 71F
→
06/15 22:15, , 72F
06/15 22:15, 72F
→
06/15 22:15, , 73F
06/15 22:15, 73F
推
06/15 22:50, , 74F
06/15 22:50, 74F
推
06/15 23:04, , 75F
06/15 23:04, 75F
推
06/15 23:18, , 76F
06/15 23:18, 76F
推
06/15 23:29, , 77F
06/15 23:29, 77F
→
06/15 23:29, , 78F
06/15 23:29, 78F
推
06/15 23:35, , 79F
06/15 23:35, 79F
→
06/15 23:35, , 80F
06/15 23:35, 80F
→
06/15 23:40, , 81F
06/15 23:40, 81F
→
06/15 23:42, , 82F
06/15 23:42, 82F
推
06/16 00:17, , 83F
06/16 00:17, 83F
推
06/16 00:34, , 84F
06/16 00:34, 84F
推
06/16 00:36, , 85F
06/16 00:36, 85F
推
06/16 00:56, , 86F
06/16 00:56, 86F
推
06/16 01:01, , 87F
06/16 01:01, 87F
推
06/16 01:14, , 88F
06/16 01:14, 88F
推
06/16 01:33, , 89F
06/16 01:33, 89F
推
06/16 01:57, , 90F
06/16 01:57, 90F
推
06/16 02:14, , 91F
06/16 02:14, 91F
推
06/16 02:51, , 92F
06/16 02:51, 92F
推
06/16 04:02, , 93F
06/16 04:02, 93F
噓
06/16 06:13, , 94F
06/16 06:13, 94F
→
06/16 08:44, , 95F
06/16 08:44, 95F
推
06/16 08:53, , 96F
06/16 08:53, 96F
噓
06/16 08:57, , 97F
06/16 08:57, 97F
推
06/16 10:07, , 98F
06/16 10:07, 98F
推
06/16 12:39, , 99F
06/16 12:39, 99F
推
06/16 12:59, , 100F
06/16 12:59, 100F
推
06/16 17:14, , 101F
06/16 17:14, 101F
推
06/16 18:49, , 102F
06/16 18:49, 102F
推
06/16 20:48, , 103F
06/16 20:48, 103F
→
06/16 20:48, , 104F
06/16 20:48, 104F
推
06/17 10:41, , 105F
06/17 10:41, 105F
推
06/17 11:14, , 106F
06/17 11:14, 106F
→
06/17 11:15, , 107F
06/17 11:15, 107F
推
06/17 17:46, , 108F
06/17 17:46, 108F