[討論] 侯當選機率只落後賴0.2%,賴危險了
侯康當選機率38.5%,賴蕭38.7%
只差0.2%,千分之二
https://i.imgur.com/mgKIjS3.jpg
這家網路溫度計預測都很準
去年所有縣市長都猜中
2020總統猜中,而且得票率只差1.3%
2020立委73席猜中71席
參考價值應該蠻高的
今天已經只差0.2%,千分之二
昨天的預測還差0.9%
https://i.imgur.com/UmKws2m.jpg
近一個禮拜的趨勢圖
藍一直在逼近
https://i.imgur.com/HDrzaOj.jpg
近2個禮拜的趨勢圖
https://i.imgur.com/fB8JTWR.jpg
他們自己寫了一篇新聞
辯論會後,逼近黃金交叉
https://i.imgur.com/ZIQRh5d.jpg
這家網路溫度計雖然跟徐巧芯老公有關
但預測當選機率都很準:
2016 年總統大選結果、
2018 年地方選舉成功命中六都選舉結果、
2020 年總統大選支持率預測誤差僅 1.3%、
2020 年全國 73 席區域立委席次預測命中達 71 席、2022 年縣(市)長選舉本島 100% 精
準預測。
他們的預測方法不只民調,還有政黨基本盤等等
https://i.imgur.com/Pvn0qF5.jpg
這家的預測模型考慮很多因素
應該蠻可靠的
看來侯康當選的機會很高
賴蕭有點危險了
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