Fw: [新聞] 福斯最新民調:希拉蕊領先川普10個百分點消失
※ [本文轉錄自 Gossiping 看板 #1Nf1TrS6 ]
作者: Phater (肥特) 看板: Gossiping
標題: Re: [新聞] 福斯最新民調:希拉蕊領先川普10個百分點
時間: Fri Aug 5 12:34:57 2016
其實FOX CNN MSNBC這些媒體或多或少都有偏左偏右的傾向. 我個人是看Nate Silver
的FiveThirtyEight的綜合民調. Nate Silver的FiveThrityEight在2008年大選時50州
準確預估49州結果,4年後的大選則是50州全中. 他們的做法不但是看民調,而且會參考
歷史均線跟地方經濟現況,用電腦模擬兩萬次投票後取平均值. 目前他們的預測如下:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
只看民調
川 20.1% 希 79.9%
民調+歷史平均
川 25.6% 希 74.4%
如果明天就投票
川 8.5% 希 91.5%
所以FOX還算客氣了
--
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※ 轉錄者: ilovekurumi (36.230.164.20), 08/12/2016 13:11:17
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