[分享] MLB頂級CF的價值
從年初一路忙到七月底,終於比較有時間能發文了。
相信大部分牛迷都很喜歡釣蝦的表現
但是時不時的還是常常還是看到總版有人在戰蝦
而且嚴格說來隊版還是有少數崩潰組很喜歡戰(ID就不用我點名了吧 顆顆)
剛好最近閒來無事在MLB官網逛到一篇不錯的文章,所以分享給各位。
[標題]Statcast points to Kiermaier as MLB's top CF glove
Kevin Kiermaier set an all-time mark of sorts in 2015: The reigning Esurance
MLB Best Defensive Player had the top statistical defensive season in
recorded history, saving 42 runs with his glove, per Defensive Runs Saved.
Obviously, that comes with a pair of enormous caveats. The first is that
"recorded history" for DRS goes back only to 2002; the second being that it
was his first full season, and we know that the current defensive stats
generally require more than a single season to be reliable.
It's a question that vexed me as I put together a list of Top 10 center
fielders for a statistically oriented segment on MLB Network's ongoing
positional ranking series (Thursday nights, 9 ET). How much stock do you put
into that DRS mark? Is it enough to overcome Kiermaier's uncertain offensive
profile, particularly a .298 OBP?
Ultimately I slotted Kiermaier at No. 6, behind A.J. Pollock and just ahead
of Adam Jones and Carlos Gomez, but it felt like avoiding the issue. If you
fully buy into the glowing defensive numbers, then his elite glove made him a
5 WAR superstar as valuable overall as Chris Davis or Anthony Rizzo. If you
don't, you cringe when you see Kiermaier is the only player with a
below-average hitting line included in the top 30 Wins Above Replacement
rankings.
Because of the uncertainty around defensive metrics, we still don't quite
know the answer to that question, but that's one of the things that makes the
emergence of Statcast™'s radar tracking capabilities so appealing. Rather
than rely on some of the human judgment that goes into DRS (and a similar
metric, UZR), the new technology allows us to measure every moment and
movement of a defensive play, hopefully allowing us to reconcile issues with
positioning and shifts to improve the performance of our fielding stats.
文章連結:http://goo.gl/ui9yrV
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因為有點長+有一些圖表,所以我只貼了部分內文出來。
有興趣的歡迎點進去看完。
也因為文章很長,所以我簡單擷取部分重點給大家看:
1.Kevin Kiermaier是2015年MLB防守最罩的CF,光是靠手套就替球隊守下42分。
(好像是Defensive Runs Saved這個數據問世之後的最高紀錄)
2.雖然攻擊數據上OBP只有0.298,WRC+僅僅只有98(低於聯盟平均)
但是在算入防守後,WAR的計算上卻高達5.5,全聯盟排名第15名
排在Chris Davis跟Anthony Rizzo的中間。
3.中後段開始用圖介紹他的守備範圍有多誇張
拿了去年防守最差的Angel Pagan來以及大聯盟平均的CF做比較
"The images line up well with the tracked numbers, which show that Kiermaier's
average distance covered of 58.5 feet on catches was well more than Pagan's
51.2 or the average center fielder's 53.8 feet."
最後附上
2015年MLB WAR排行:
http://imgur.com/a/5rpb0 資料來源:Fangraph網站
大家可以看到
Kiermaier的打擊是低於MLB平均的,
但是把手套算進去就可以把WAR拉到全聯盟15名。
同樣可以看看第9名的Lorenzo Cain也是守備不錯的CF
(Def值也有15.7,Def是進階守備數據的一種)
另外可以在注意一下
WRC+同樣是172的Mike Trout跟Joey Votto
一個守位是CF,一個守位是1B
最後WAR就差了1.6。
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[總結]
嚴格來說這篇原文跟牛版沒啥關係,主要是想讓大家看看頂級CF的價值究竟有多高。
畢竟中職沒有進階守備數據,所以很多大大很愛戰。
(PS:下次看到有人戰頂級CF手套可以守下多少分記得是30~40左右,
之前看到有人拿這個開酸)
Kiermaier跟蝦兩位同樣都是守備遠高於聯盟平均的CF
一個WRC+只有98 WAR就可以拉抬到那麼高
更別談釣蝦的OPS+結算到8/7,目前也有約120。
如果中職有WAR這數據,我想要進前五名完全不是問題吧。
所以拜託別再有人閒閒沒事整天戰選秀放槍。
另外記得以前好像有看到一篇更準確在討論CF的守備價值的文章
但是我實在忘記在哪裡看到的了,有大大知道的話可以分享給我XD
--
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別跟天空獅認真吧,這個ID我早就放棄跟他溝通了。
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