[問卦] 這波出生人口下跌會到何時才平穩?
日本和台灣在過去半世紀都有出生人口高峰和多次進入平整後再進入下降的階段
基本上日本經濟發展比台灣早十到二十年,目前日本的人口大致出生率穩定在1.2左右連續十年以上了
但台灣出生人口在2016年開始卻出現第四波下降,到現在接近腰斬的程度,這應該可以在先進國家中做一個人口學的研究案例
今年2024年3月出生人口僅10827,相較2023年出生1.2萬人,看起來每年都穩定少10%,這種現象蠻特別的,是代表台灣「又更先進嗎?」
畢竟台灣出生率跟南韓比差不多都是全球倒數第一第二,而台灣特別之處是在近十年直接快腰斬,在排除戰亂、社會暴動或大規模疾病的社會,先進國家中為什麼只有台灣發展成這麼極端的出生人口曲線? 有掛嗎?
(預計台灣2024出生人口才11~12萬)
https://i.imgur.com/W22E5AE.jpeg
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