[問卦] 一間國中建北率高,8+9率就低是真的嗎?
強者我朋友最近一直在為了他們家小朋友看學區房,
他不斷地在找自己能負擔的範圍內,
「第一志願率」(在雙北俗稱「建北率」)最高的公立國中的學區。
我就對朋友說:「會不會唸書、高中是不是第一志願,有那麼重要嗎?
我們兩個高中都不是第一志願,還不是照樣過得好好的?
你還不是照樣混得風生水起、五子登科?」
我朋友就說:「這你就不懂了!我其實沒有那麼希望小孩去讀第一志願的高中,
那頂多只是『次要目標』,
『首要目標』基本上還是不希望孩子被學校的8+9同學給帶壞,或是被8+9同學捅死。
而『建北率』和『8+9率』通常是成反比,
也就是說,『建北率』高的地方,『8+9率』就會低。
在這樣的狀況下,『建北率』就是個重要的硬指標。
而我們沒有其他更可靠的指標去判斷
一個學區『8+9率』的高低,
就算有,不是超複雜,就是沒有數據可查(像是那個學區家
庭的年收平均數和中位數之類的)。
既然這樣,看『建北率』就直接了當多了。」
他的邏輯大概是:「一間學校,在人數不變的狀況下,
如果好學生多,壞學生、8+9就會少,反之亦然。
不會唸書或許並不一定是壞學生,但是會唸書的學生,就比較大的概率是好學生。
而建北率高,就表示這間學校會唸書的學生多,那出好學生的概率也就比較高,
所以出壞學生、8+9的概率就低。
所以,無論有沒有實際證據支持,我們都至少可以合理地推論:
『建北率高,8+9率就會低』。」
但是我感到很疑惑,「建北率」和「8+9率」真的通常是成反比嗎?
總覺得我朋友的推論中,充滿著各種偏見、論證謬誤和錯誤假設。
有沒有哪些學校是「建北率」和「8+9率」都很高,或是都很低的?
或者該說,在他這個推論之下,有沒有反例存在?
有沒有這方面的八卦?
--
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