[新聞] 台灣保險巨頭恐成為未來公司債市場波動之源

看板Gossiping作者yamori時間4年前 (2019/12/04 11:48)推噓3(4推 1噓 7→)

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※發文無1~6小標格式或未依順序任意刪除者會被刪文 1.媒體來源: 華爾街日報 & 風傳媒 2.記者署名 Mike Bird Oct. 21, 2019 7:00 am ET 3.完整新聞標題: Made in Taiwan: Seeds of Future Bond-Market Volatility South Korea, Japan and Taiwan’s holdings of U.S. dollar corporate bonds have more than doubled in the past five years 台灣保險巨頭恐成為未來公司債市場波動之源過去五年，南韓日本與台灣持有的美國公司債是過去的兩倍多 4.完整新聞內文: Asia’s insurance behemoths, particularly in Taiwan, pose a growing risk to the U.S. corporate-bond market after a multiyear binge on greenback debt. 亞洲，尤其是台灣的保險巨頭在多年來大舉買進美元債券後，給美國公司債市場帶來的風險正在上升。 Insurers in Asia’s more developed economies have promised returns far greater than their government-bond markets can provide, and they need to hold far more assets than their domestic bond markets can satisfy. 亞洲較發達經濟體的保險企業承諾回報率往往遠高於當地政府債券市場可以提供的水準，這些企業需要持有的資產規模也遠遠超過本地債券市場可以滿足的水準。 That has left them fishing for other sources of returns, most notably in the U.S. corporate-bond market. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan’s holdings of U.S. dollar corporate bonds have more than doubled to over $800 billion in the past five years, according to the International Monetary Fund’s global financial stability report, published last week. 這種狀況促使這些企業尋找其他的回報來源，最明顯的是在美國公司債市場。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）上周公布的全球金融穩定報告顯示，韓國、日本和台灣持有的美元計價公司債規模在過去五年增長逾一倍，超過8000億美元。 Corporate bond markets in the U.S. and the eurozone are 81% and 41% of the size of their life insurers’ total assets, respectively. In Korea, Taiwan and Japan, the respective figures are 10%, 8% and 4%. 美國和歐元區公司債市場規模分別相當於當地壽險公司總資產的81%和41%。而在韓國、台灣和日本，這一比率分別為10%、8%和4%。 The IMF notes the risk posed by U.S. dollar bonds with call options. These allow issuers to redeem long-dated bonds early, reducing their financing costs but causing paper losses for insurers. IMF指出，附有贖回權的美元債券讓發行人可以提前贖回長期債券，這能減輕他們的融資成本，但會導致買了美元債的台灣壽險公司出現帳面損失。 This is no longer simply a possibility: The risk has begun to materialize in Taiwan, where such securities are known as Formosa bonds, after the island’s colonial-era name. The plunge in U.S. rates this year has cut yields on American BBB-rated corporate debt from around 4.7% at the beginning of the year to just 3.3% today. Issuers of long-dated debt will be eager to refinance at lower rates. 這不再只是一種可能性：這個風險在台灣已經開始成為現實。台灣的這類證券被稱為福爾摩莎債券（Formosa bonds）這是用那個島在殖民時期的名稱命名的。今年美國利率大幅下降，導致美國BBB級的公司債收益率從年初時的約4.7%跌至目前的3.3%。長期債的發行人非常想以較低的利率進行再融資。注: 意即台灣壽險業者為了較高的回報，買了許多在台發行的美國公司債 (福爾摩沙債券) 　　前陣子美國降息，發債的美國公司為了降低融資成本，可能會提前贖回 (call) 　　如此一來，買了美國公司債的台灣壽險業者可能無法取得當初買債時預期的回報 In August, Verizon Communications redeemed a callable 2046 Formosa bond worth just north of $2 billion. That followed Bank of America’s decision to redeem its $604 million in Formosa bonds that had been due to mature in 2045. 8月份時，美國主要電信商威訊（Verizon）贖回了一批2046年到期的可贖回福爾摩莎債券，價值略高於20億美元。在此之前，美國銀行（Bank of America, BA）決定贖回6.04億美元2045年到期的福爾摩莎債券。 According to the Taipei Exchange, $52 billion in dollar-denominated international bonds that mature after 2030 and carry coupons above 3.5%—the kind of securities issuers will be looking to retire early if they can—are outstanding. 根據證券櫃檯買賣中心（Taipei Exchange）的數據，目前有520億美元2030年後到期、票面利率高於3.5%的美元計價國際債券發行在外。這些是發行人會希望提前贖回的證券。 Another risk comes from the U.S. Treasury’s semiannual foreign-exchange report, due to be published this month. If Taiwan, with its large trade and current-account surpluses, were labeled a currency manipulator in this report or in the future, the island would be pressured to strengthen the Taiwanese dollar. 另一個風險來自美國財政部定於本月發布的半年度外彙報告。如果擁有巨大貿易順差和經常項目盈餘的台灣在這份報告中或未來被指操縱匯率，台灣將面臨讓新台幣升值的壓力。 A forensic dive into Taiwan’s financial health by Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations and the blog Concentrated Ambiguity suggests a 10% rise in the Taiwanese dollar would inflict a loss of $12.3 billion on the insurance sector, equivalent to more than a fifth of its reported capital. 美國外交關係委員會（Council on Foreign Relations）的Brad Setser和部落格 Concentrated Ambiguity對台灣金融健康狀況進行了取證分析，結果顯示，新台幣升值 10%將給台灣保險業帶來123億美元的損失，相當於報告資本的1/5以上。 U.S. investors would be wrong to think what happens in Asia will stay in Asia. Taiwanese insurers alone own 4% of U.S. corporate credit and 9% of the dollar bonds of non-U.S. companies, with even higher proportions at longer maturities. A bout of heavy selling caused by financial stress would ripple through the U.S. credit market, driving spreads higher. 如果美國投資者認為亞洲的風險不會波及其他地區，那他們就錯了。僅台灣保險公司就持有4%的美國企業信用債和9%的非美國公司所發行的美元債券，期限更長的債券中這個比例更高。如果財務壓力引發一輪大規模拋售，將波及美國信用債市場，推高利差。 It is more common to hear about dangerous dollar borrowing outside the U.S. than dangerous dollar lending. But the mountainous accumulation of dollar credit in Asia—Taiwan in particular—has all the hallmarks of an upset waiting to happen. 在美國以外，因借入美元而面臨風險的情況比因借出美元而面臨風險更常見。但在亞洲、尤其是台灣，累積如山的美元債權具備了一切令人不安的跡象。 5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址): http://alturl.com/hrkh7 https://www.storm.mg/article/1865956 6.備註: 台灣保險業持有大量美國公司債美國降息(產生利差)->美國公司可能為了少付點利息而提前贖回->台灣保險業賺頭變少 IMF擔心接下來如果台幣升值，台灣保險業的損失會更巨大保險業若開始拋售美國公司債->會使利差繼續加大是說下禮拜FED又要開會了，還會再降嗎？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 72.50.201.7 (美國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1575431284.A.DB2.html

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12/04 11:49, 4年前 , 1^F

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※ 編輯: yamori (72.50.201.7 美國), 12/04/2019 11:56:56

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