[其他]沒SC的勇士是NBA最差的球隊轉自reddit

看板G-S-WARRIORS作者taiwanrules (taiwanrules)時間3年前 (2021/04/06 23:43)推噓34(34推 0噓 51→)

留言85則, 21人參與討論串1/1

看了最近勇士的表現可以說是不斷突破下限被弱隊爆打對強隊的抵抗力比坦隊還不如被血洗20分以上的場次沒記錯是全聯盟最多攤開陣容真的有那麼差嗎? 原因又是什麼? 其實很明顯本來想寫一篇討論剛好今天 reddit(r/nba)上有一篇分析文幾乎把我想講的都講了那乾脆借花獻佛重點翻譯大家參考參考網頁版請移駕https://reurl.cc/o94k2j The 2021 Warriors are the worst team in the NBA when Steph isn't on the court. And those numbers are still inflated, because Steph is already carrying the majority of the Wiseman minutes, and playing against the other team's best players. 2021勇士當curry不在場時是NBA最弱的球隊這還已經是curry扛著智將面對對方最好的球員 If we take Steph off this team, we may be looking at, far and away, the worst team in basketball. Worse Than 2020? The 2021 Warriors are 1-7 without Steph. This is perhaps unsurprising--the 2020 Warriors went 14-46 without him. What probably is surprising though, is that this team might be even worse: Warriors with Steph: 114 Off Rating (13th), +2.1 Net (10th) 2021 W/o Steph: 102.2 Off Rating (30th), -8.9 Net (30th) 2020 Warriors: 105.2 Off Rating (30th), -8.6 Net (30th) 如果拿掉curry我們可能正看著一支遠遠墊底球隊比2020還差? 看來是這樣: 勇士有curry: 進攻效率114 (第13名) 淨效率 +2.1 (第10名) 2021 沒curry: 進攻效率102.2 (第30名) 淨效率 -8.9 (第30名) 2020 勇士: 進攻效率105.2 (第30名) 淨效率 -8.6 (第30名) This is despite adding productive seasons from Wiggins and Draymond. There's a clear reason for this. If we isolate to Warriors minutes without Steph OR Wiseman, we see a bad, but improved team: Warriors w/o Steph or Wiseman: 102.7 Off Rating (30th), -6.7 net (25th) Still worst-in-the-NBA offense, but at least solid defensively, with a net rating around OKC's number. This reveals something about the 2021 Warriors that makes the Steph on/offs even more absurd--Steph's own efficiency is getting killed by playing with Wiseman. 這還已經是基於Wiggins和Green都有不錯的球季的前提其中的原因很清楚如果把curry和Wiseman一起拿掉我們會的到一個稍好一點點的球隊: 進攻效率102.7 (第30名) 淨效率 -6.7 (第25名) 仍然是全聯盟最差的進攻但至少防守好一點淨效率大約是雷霆水準這讓curry的正負值顯得更加鬼扯因為他自己的效率值和智將同場時是被削弱的 https://imgur.com/a/yEjlaGP The 16.4 offensive drop in Steph lineups when they add Wiseman, is more than the distance between the offense of the Brooklyn Nets and the Cleveland Cavaliers. And when Steph isn't around to carry Wiseman, the Warriors get outscored by 14 net points per 100, a worse number than the worst season of the "Process" 76ers (-10.2). Steph Curry is having the season he's having (top 3 offensive EPM) despite having to play 2/3 of his minutes every night with Duolingo Kwame Brown, like a speedboat trying to drag a cruise ship anchor. James Wiseman is so bad right now, that the Warriors are better just not having either one on the court. Wiseman is arguably worse, right now, than Steph is good. Curry有沒有和Wiseman同時在場進攻效率差了16.4 這個差距比籃網和騎士之間的差距還大而當Curry不在場carry智將時勇士每百回合要輸對手 14分這比"相信過程"的76人還差(-10.2) 儘管每晚有2/3的時間必須和雙語垮米布朗同場 Curry仍舊是那個Curry Wiseman目前就是差勁到可以完全抵消Curry還有剩乾脆兩個都不上還好一點 Now, other superstars in the west have had to carry their team this year: https://imgur.com/a/jKZkAaZ But none of them have their team fall to league-worst net rating when they leave the court. (Look at Jokic there, give that man the MVP). And none of these guys had their own +/- suppressed by being forced to carry James Wiseman. Minus Steph, the 2021 Warriors are worse than the 2020 team, because at least the 2020 team didn't have to give 25 MPG to the worst rotation frontcourt player in the NBA. 西區也有其他超巨必須carry他們的球隊但沒有一支他們不在場時淨效率是會墊底的 (看看Jokic 給他MVP!) 也沒有人必須 carry智將以至於影響自己的正負值沒curry的2021勇士比2020還差因為至少不用給全NBA最差的前場輪替球員25分鐘 The Anti-Bogut Wiseman is good enough at getting himself buckets so his personal numbers never look catastrophic. A constant refrain on the Warriors sub is: "Oh, he's scoring 10ppg on 50% shooting, not so bad" or "You know, Jokic/AD/Garnett only scored 10 ppg as a rookie, etc." Now those arguments ignore efficiency and era, and relative to his peers, Wiseman's -5.6 BPM is in rookie Adam Morrison territory. But I've been looking deeper into his on/offs and I'm worried his box stats don't even get close to the real problem. Wiseman might be the worst team basketball player in the entire league. He is the anti-Bogut. Never gets anyone else open. Never knows where to be. Always slips the screen despite playing with the greatest shooter ever. Calls for post-ups constantly. Bungles the ensuing post-up. Always tries to "go into his bag" despite the bag being a pocket. And again, Wiseman's BPM is still really bad: -5.6, worst among starting centers. But it doesn't tell the story of how he makes everyone else worse. We've already seen how he makes Steph human. What do you think happens when mortals try to carry big Jim? Wiseman自己能進球所以他的個人傳統數據不會太悲慘有些人會拿這些數據和菜鳥Jokic/AD/Garnett比卻忽略效率和時代不同 Wisemen -5.6 BPM 是 Adam Morrison的水準在先發中鋒中墊底但更大的問題恐怕在on/off的數據他正好是Bogut的相反沒辦法製造隊友空檔永遠不知道該站在哪擋拆時總是溜走不停要位然後搞砸我們已經看到他怎麼讓Curry變路人那你認為其他凡人carry智將時會發生什麼事? https://imgur.com/a/vUX8OCf Now keep in mind, at this slice the samples are getting very small. But while they may not have predictive value, they do have value in terms of: "holy shit, that's a bad number." And placed alongside all the other bad numbers, it's clear that the Wiseman is dragging down every Warriors starter. As a long-time Minnesota Wiggins hater, I spent a lot of this year disbelieving Wiggins career rehabilitation. But once I separated Wiggins minutes from Wiseman, his mediocre on/offs normalized. Wiggins got annihilated in the games where he had to play with Wiseman without Steph. In 641 minutes with Steph, Wiggins, and no Wiseman, the Warriors have a 121 off Rating. Wiseman has physical talent and seemingly is a great kid, but he's probably 2 years away from being an average NBA player. He is, right now, the worst starter in the league, by a real margin. 要知道分析到這裡樣本數已經非常小了但至少我們知道這數據很恐怖很顯然Wiseman拖垮了每一個先發球員當Steph Wiggins 同場而沒有 Wiseman的641分鐘勇士的進攻效率是121 智將擁有身體天賦看來也是個好孩子但距離成為一個普通程度的NBA球員大概要兩年而現在他是聯盟最差的先發球員 The 1978 Steve Kerr Warriors IMO, Kerr is lucky he has the clout of 3 titles or he would already be being scapegoated, Sacramento Joerger-style, for the failures of the #2 pick. Myers had a catastrophic off-season, and at some point, the coach usually ends up on the chopping block first. Like Joerger with Bagley, Kerr is in a playoff race while being hounded to give starting minutes to one of the worst players on his roster. To make things even worse for him though, he's also starting Kelly Oubre (Myers' other big offseason move), who fits into a high IQ offense the way a brain-eating amoeba fits into a swim meet. When Steph, Dray, and Wiggins get to play together without Wiseman or Oubre, we're really cooking with gas: https://imgur.com/a/REbbYO2 我認為Kerr要不是之前帶出了三冠現在已經成為代罪羔羊了就像國王的Joerger 因為養不出榜眼被火 Bob Myers有個災難性的off-season 但通常教練是先送上斷頭台的 Kerr 被要求給最差的球員上場時間更慘的是他也讓無法融入高球商進攻的 Oubre 先發 (Myers的另一傑作) 當Steph Dray 和Wiggins 同場而沒有 Wiseman和 Oubre 淨效率超猛的 That second lineup, scoring at a rate below 1978 league-average, two years before the 3pt line was introduced? That's the Warriors starting lineup. You want to see proof that Kerr is being put in a fucked up situation? The Warriors starting lineup has a -13 net rating, an offense scoring like a bottom-tier 70s basketball team, and Kerr still can't bench anybody because the FO doesn't want to look stupid. Do you think Kerr could bench Oubre if he wanted? Lacob is paying $60M in luxury tax for the guy. The FO is demanding he start Wiseman. The easy solution to become a respectable basketball team overnight would be to build lineups around Steph, Dray, Wiggs that don't involve Wiseman or Oubre. But Kerr can't do that because those were Myers two big offseason moves. Obviously small sample size and everything, the team would still have weaknesses. But forget the obvious mistake of not drafting Lamelo. More and more I think the Warriors would've been around 7th seed right now if they had just not signed Oubre and drafted nobody. 表格裡面第二個lineup 得分比1978年的聯盟平均還差那時還沒三分線而這就是勇士先發陣容勇士先發淨效率是-13 進攻像是70年代的弱隊而kerr沒辦法讓人降到替補這一切就因為勇管不想讓人看起來像笨蛋(light years嘛) 你認為Kerr會讓Oubre打替補? Lacob為了他花60M奢侈稅勇管也要求讓Wiseman先發最簡單的解法就是上Steph Dray Wiggins 然後避開智將和 Oubre 但 Kerr 不可能這麼做因為這是FO休賽季最大的move 我想如果當時沒交易Oubre 也沒選秀現在搞不好是第7種子心得: 1. 其實勇士陣容不至於到現在還在搶play-in 甚至前6我都覺得不難但現在的先發組合就注定是犧牲戰績陪公子練球希望Kerr今天的談話代表已經要開始 chase win了但為時已晚頂多保住play-in 2. 交易截止前沒換走 Oubre 有點可惜我現在最怕的是花大錢續約他日後發現沒有正效益還要貼籤送走 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.137.203.56 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/G-S-WARRIORS/M.1617723807.A.6B8.html

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