[外媒]《外交官》台灣學運：對區域與經濟的含意

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美智庫 CSIS：中國大陸可能需重啟服貿談判《外交官》雜誌於 4/2 刊登美國 CSIS 智庫資深東亞顧問 Bonnie Glaser (葛萊儀)的訪談影片，其中對太陽花學生抗爭是否會影響兩岸關係，是否會影響台灣與他國簽訂貿易協定有深入討論。葛萊儀認為中國大陸有可能需接受重啟服貿談判，此次事件對台灣與別的國家簽訂雙邊貿易協定沒有影響。但台灣想加入多邊貿易組織如 TPP 與 RCEP 時，若服貿未過，北京可能以此做藉口，施壓別國阻擋台灣加入。葛萊儀並表示，服貿協議有機會對兩岸都有利，但驅動群眾抗爭的因素不只是台灣面對中國大陸的存在性危機感，還包括經濟因素。服貿協議可能有利於大企業，但未必有利於中小企業。每個自由貿易協議都會造成贏家與輸家，而因協議經濟利益受損的人自然會擔心。台灣反對黨擔心的則是服貿不會帶來馬政府宣稱的好處，就如同ECFA沒有帶來當初宣稱的好處一樣。背景知識 * CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)「國際關係及政略研究中心」是美國重要外交智庫。 * 受訪者 Bonnie Glaser (葛萊儀)曾擔任美國國務院與國防部顧問。 * 採訪者 Shannon Tiezzi（蒂耶茲）為《外交官》雜誌副主編報導連結 http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/the-taiwan-protests-regional-and-economic-implications/ 縮網址 http://ppt.cc/C6v- 訪談影片英文內容紀錄與中譯 Shannon Tiezzi: Hello, I'm Shannon Tiezzi from The Diplomat and I'm here at the Center for Strategic and International Studies where I'm happy to be joining Bonnie Glaser who is a senior advisor for Asia here at CSIS. On March 19, a group of several hundred mostly student protesters occupied Taiwan's legislative yuan in protest of a pending cross strait services trade agreement between China and Taiwan. Several additional protesters were outside of the legislative yuan and the protest has only increased since then with the protest on March 30th attracting several hundred thousand protesters outside the presidential office. We're very happy to have you with us today Bonnie. Help us sort through some of these issues. Shannon Tiezzi: 你好，我是《外交官》雜誌的 Shannon Tiezzi，我現在在國際關係及政略研究中心 CSIS，我很高興加入 CSIS 資深東亞顧問葛萊儀。在三月19日，數百名學生抗議者佔領了立法院，抗議服務貿易協定。更多的抗議者在立法院外，而且抗議人數從那天開始只增不減。在三月30日的抗議吸引了數十萬人到總統府外抗議。我們非常高興請到葛萊儀與我們釐清這個議題。 Bonnie Glaser: Thank you. 葛萊儀：謝謝。 Q: To begin with, could you just provide some background about the agreement at the center of these protests, the crosstraight services trade agreement? What is really involved in this pact and what is both China and Taiwan expect to gain from this deal? Q: 首先，你能否提供位於這次抗議核心的海峽兩岸服務貿易協定的背景？究竟是什麼因素真正牽涉在其中？中國與台灣希望從這個協議中得到什麼？ A: Well, the cross strait trade in services agreement is a follow on agreement for the agreement that was signed in 2010, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, known as ECFA, between mainland China and Taiwan. So this is a follow on agreement and after this will be a merchandise agreement that is currently under negotiation. So this agreement was signed in June of 2013 and has been awaiting ratification by Taiwan's legislature and has been very very controversial. So because of the fact that it has not yet been passed. The KMT was really frustrated with the filibustering, the opposition, from the DPP, and really tried to push it through the committee to a vote and that is what prompted the protest. But the agreement itself will allow for the opening up of services trade between mainland China and Taiwan and in fact will open up about 64 services in Taiwan and 80 on mainland China. So in Taiwan this is areas like hospitals, traditional Chinese medicine, tourism, telecommunications, construction, a whole range of services area. And then on the mainland some similar things telecommunications including E-commerce, elderly handicap services, the motion picture production industry. So potentially could be very... I think beneficial to both sides but it comes against the background of a perception in Taiwan that Taiwan is too dependent on mainland China economically and that the mainland is penetrating Taiwan's economy and it is not bringing benefits to the people of Taiwan in an even handed way so some of the people who are lower class or working class are benefiting less and there is just concern about the vulnerability of Taiwan going forward to too much dependence on the mainland economically. A: 好的，海峽兩岸服務貿易協定是 2010 年中國與台灣簽署的 ECFA 的後續協議。所以這是一個後續協議，之後還會有現在正在進行協商的貨品貿易協議。服貿是在 2013 年六月簽署，之後就在等待立法院通過，而且非常、非常有爭議性。因為服貿到現在都還沒過，國民黨對民進黨用議事手段拖延審查感到非常沮喪，而且真的想硬把服貿送出委員會，因此導致了這次的抗議事件。服貿本身將打開大陸與台灣之間的服務貿易，台灣將開放 64 項產業，大陸將開放 80 項。台灣將開放來像是醫療、中藥、觀光、通訊、建築等等服務產業。中國將開放類似的產業，像是通訊、電子商務、長照、電影。所以服貿有潛力... 嗯我認為對雙方都有利，但服貿被台灣人認為將使台灣經濟上太依賴大陸，而大陸將能穿透台灣經濟。而且台灣人認為服貿不會均勻地給台灣百姓帶來好處，中低收入與勞工受益較少。台灣人也擔憂台灣經濟上太過依賴大陸將使台灣變得脆弱。 Q: So do you think these protests are mostly being driven by this sort of existential concern towards China and not by the specific economic components of the deal? Q: 所以你認為這些抗議者的動機大部分是這種受中國威脅存在感的危機，而不是協議中特定的經濟因素？ A: I think it's both. I think there are specific economic concerns. Big business in Taiwan will benefit some of the smaller businesses may not but this is true of course of any free trade agreement. There are winners and there are losers. So the losers are certainly concerned about the economic impact. And I think the opposition party is worried that this agreement will not bring the promises that the Ma Ying-jeou administration claims that it will bring. And some people are critical that the ECFA really did not provide the benefits that were promised by the Ma Ying-jeou administration. But I think there really is this existential component. There is a sense that an agreement with the mainland is very different then a free trade agreement with other countries. So the free trade agreement that was signed with Singapore with New Zealand went through the legislative yuan in Taiwan without any problem. There was bipartisan agreement. And I think going forward there will be bipartisan agreement for other free trade agreements with other countries. But the mainland, this touches a sore nerve and it gets very much entangled in domestic politics in Taiwan. And so this has become very very controversial. A: 我認為兩者都有。我認為台灣人有經濟上的顧慮，大企業將受益而小企業可能沒有受益，這對任何自由貿易協定都成立，總是有贏家跟輸家，所以輸家當然會非常關心經濟上的衝擊。我認為反對黨擔心服貿將不會帶來馬英九政府所承諾的好處，而且有些人批評 ECFA 就沒有帶來馬英九政府所承諾的好處。但我認為真正的問題是存在感的因素。台灣人覺得與大陸簽任何協議，和與其他國家簽自由貿易協定不同。所以與新加坡和紐西蘭簽的自由貿易協定在立法院跨黨派支持下，毫無困難地通過了。而且我認為在未來與其他國家簽自由貿易協定，也會得到跨黨派的支持。但與大陸簽，就碰到了台灣的敏感神經，而與台灣的國內政治糾纏不清，所以服貿才會這麼有爭議性。 Q: Given the rather extreme political backlash on Taiwan, do you think we're going to see a slowdown or even a temporary halt in the warming of cross strait ties? It seems like domestically, Ma Ying-jeou might not want to risk a repeat of this incident. Q: 在這麼強大的政治後作力之下，你覺得我們將看到兩岸關係減緩或暫停嗎？現在看起來，馬英九似乎在國內不想再次發生這種衝突。 A: There has already been a small impact on cross strait relations. There was supposed to be a visit by the head of the mainland's Taiwan's affairs office to Taiwan soon. That visit has been postponed. There have also been provincial party secretaries or governors that have also postponed their visits. But I don't think that this will have a very negative impact on the cross strait relationship. Ma Ying-jeou's agenda for the cross strait relationship for his remaining two years in office is really quite modest. When he first came into power in 2008, he was ambitious. He talked about the possibility of a peace treaty between the two sides of the straight and cross strait military CBMs (confidence building measures). He has really scaled back that ambitious agenda. What he hopes to do in the coming few years is to establish a representative office on the mainland and have the mainland setup a representative office in Taiwan. So, that is a fairly modest objective. Compared to some of the things that he had talked about doing very early in his tenure. And I think for the mainland there will not be much... there will really not be punishment of Taiwan for delaying the passage of this trade agreement and potentially the mainland may have to agree to renegotiate it and they (the mainland) won't be happy but I think China will do it. But the strategy that the Chinese are pursuing of providing more economic carrots to Taiwan to try and promote economic integration which they hope will lead to political integration in the long run. I don't see them reconsidering that strategy in the near term. A: 這次事件已經對兩岸關係造成一些影響了，原本預定要訪問台灣的大陸國台辦主任已經延後來訪行程了，還有幾個省的官員與黨書記也延遲他們要來訪的行程。但我不認為這會對兩岸關係產生非常負面的衝擊。馬英九在他剩下兩年任期的兩岸關係目標算是滿保守的，當他在 2008 年當上總統他很有野心，他談到要簽兩岸和平協議與兩岸軍事互信機制。他現在真的把他的目標降低了，他只希望在剩下的兩年內可以互設代表處，跟他剛當上總統時的目標相比，這是個滿保守的目標。而且我認為大陸將不會... 大陸將不會懲罰台灣延遲通過服貿，而且有可能大陸得同意重新協商，大陸雖然會不高興，但我認為中國還是會重新協商。但以中國讓利提昇兩岸經濟整合進而以促使長期兩岸政治整合的策略，我想中國短期內不會改變這個策略。 Q: And you mentioned earlier that you didn't think that there will be a similar backlash against other free trade agreements. So do you think other countries are going to look at this and be at all concerned about their own negotiations with Taiwan? Especially as Taiwan is about joining the Trans Pacific Partnership. Q: 你剛剛提到你不認為與其他國家簽自由貿易協定不會產生這麼大的後作力。所以你認為其他國家將把這次服貿議題，視他們為與台灣談判將遇到的障礙嗎？尤其是台灣將準備加入 TPP。 A: Well, I don't think it will have an impact on bilateral free trade agreements. As I said, there really is bipartisan support for bilateral free trade agreements. The TPP is another story and the problem here is that the mainland has quietly told Taiwan that this trade and services agreement must be ratified before the mainland is going to support Taiwan entering multilateral trade agreements that means the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the RCEP and TPP. Now of course China is not a member of the... it's not one of the negotiating parties of the TPP but China can use its influence to pressure one of the twelve TPP negotiating countries to not permit Taiwan to join down the road. Once the original agreement is concluded and I think Taiwan's membership will not be considered in this initial stage. It would be later and potentially China might seek to join in the second tranche of countries also but if Taiwan is qualified, if it's ready, and the mainland is not. That's going to raise issues. And then even if Taiwan is ready and other countries support it. And it has to get support from all of the TPP members. China could still put pressure on some of those TPP members to not allow Taiwan to join. And if this agreement in services is not ratified Beijing might use that as an excuse. So it could create obstacles down the road. A: 我不認為服貿事件會對其他任何雙邊自由貿易協定產生影響。如我所說，雙邊自由貿易協定受跨黨派的支持。但 TPP 又是另一個故事了，中國已經暗示台灣，服貿必須先通過，中國才會支持台灣加入多邊貿易協定，例如 RCEP 跟 TPP。當然現在中國不是成員... 還沒加入 TPP 談判，但中國可以用他的影響力施壓十二個 TPP 談判國不要讓台灣加入。一旦原本協議達成，我認為現階段 TPP 可能不會考慮台灣的會籍。要等之後才可能考慮台灣，那時中國有可能也想要加入，而台灣已經準備好，也有資格，但中國還沒。這時將產生問題，在那時候即使台灣準備好了，其他會員國也支持台灣加入，台灣仍需要爭取全部 TPP 會員國的支持。中國可能還是會施壓，要求一些 TPP 成員不要讓台灣加入，如果服貿沒有通過，中國可能會用這個當施壓的藉口。所以退回服貿可能在未來對台灣加入 TPP 產生障礙。 Shannon Tiezzi: unfortunately that's all the time we have for today but thank you so much for helping us sort through these issues. A: Thank you very much. Q: And thank you for watching. Once again I'm Shannon Tiezzi from The Diplomat. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 50.184.81.180 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/FuMouDiscuss/M.1396672476.A.3BB.html

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