[新聞] Economists split on chance of rate cut
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business editor Peter Ryan, On Monday 5 December 2011, 10:30 EST
The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its final meeting of the
year tomorrow against the backdrop of a deepening debt crisis in Europe.
Economists are split on whether the central bank will move to cut the
official cash rate again this month, to provide a buffer against a potential
break-up of the eurozone next year.
Last month, the Reserve Bank cut interest rates on Melbourne Cup day for the
first time since April 2009.
But as economists say, it will be a "finely balanced" decision whether to act
now, given the inaction by eurozone leaders, or to keep their powder dry
until next year when the situation may become critical.
Thirteen out of 25 market economists polled by Bloomberg think the RBA will
cut interest rates tomorrow as a precautionary measure, with a 25 basis point
cut taking the official cash rate to 4.25 per cent.
Westpac, which has been predicting drastic rate cuts, is tipping a cut
tomorrow with another two cuts next year, which would see the cash rate at
3.75 per cent.
European Union leaders are holding their final summit of the year in Brussels
on December 8 and 9.
It seems like Australia is always held hostage either to the United States
or, of late, to the EU.
There was some short-term optimism late last week when six central banks
acted to keep European banks lending to each other.
Although it has been said before, this week's meeting of EU leaders really is
"make or break".
Australia's big banks will not guarantee that they will pass on any future
rate cuts in full, but they are preparing for a new level of mortgage stress
as times become tougher and unemployment potentially starts to rise.
We will have an indicator of that on Thursday, when the official November
labour force figures are released.
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