[閒聊] Andruw
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/andruws-best-case-scenario/
這是Fangraphs上
一篇去年討論Rangers花五十萬賭安豬的文章
如果不想看翻譯的，可以直接跳到最下面看結論XD
另外徵求勇者幫我轉總板XD
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Over the weekend, Andruw Jones signed a minor league contract with the
Texas Rangers that will pay him $500,000 if he makes
the opening day roster and has incentives that could
push his total compensation up to just over $1 million.
This is, obviously, a huge fall from last winter,
when he coaxed an $18 million per year salary out of the
Dodgers based on his strong performance history.
(交代去年的時空背景和科科緹的腦麻Contract，略過不翻XD)
However, as we all know, Jones’ career track has
been on a noticeable downward trend. Let me show
you four seasons of performance:
安豬的Career看起來是呈現一個走下坡的趨勢，
現在讓我引用某人在26-29歲時候的數據
Age 26: .321/.390/.561, .403 wOBA, 679 PA
Age 27: .282/.346/.467, .348 wOBA, 675 PA
Age 28: .252/.333/.449, .344 wOBA, 555 PA
Age 29: .172/.261/.253, .235 wOBA, 253 PA
That’s a pretty nasty downward trend in what
should be the prime of a career.
From superstar at 26 to worst hitter in baseball at 29…
that’s quite the fall from grace.
Except, you may have noticed,
those numbers don’t belong to Andruw Jones.
Those numbers come from the career log of Jermaine Dye.
在一個正常棒球員的年紀，這是個非常嚴重的死亡交叉
從26歲的時候打出Superstar的成績，到29歲的時候變成聯盟最鳥蛋的打者之一
但是你可能發現了，這並不是安豬的成績
這個數據，其實是Jermmaine Dye的
It has seemingly passed the memory of some,
but it wasn’t too long ago that we saw a prominant
right-handed power hitting outfielder collapse
entirely at a young age.
In what should have been the best years of his career,
Dye posted one of the worst seasons in recent baseball history.
可能某些人早已忘記，但是這並不是非常久之前
有一個超強的右打外野手在年紀尚未達到崩壞標準之前完全的崩壞
在應該是他們生涯的高峰的時候，打出世界上最鳥蛋的一季
And then he came back.
但是爺爺，您回來了！
Since that awful 2003 season,
Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346.
In fact, his five seasons since his disaster season
are actually better than the five seasons that led up to his collapse.
Not only did he return to previous form,
but he raised game even beyond previously established levels.
自從2003 (時年29歲) Dye的wOBA是.338, .417, .343, 和 .346
事實上，自從2003之後，Dye不只打出跟他
之前一樣水準的成績，還更超越了他之前的巔峰
Now, in Dye’s case, there was obviously extenuating circumstances –
he fouled a ball off his leg in the 2001 playoffs,
fracturing his tibia, and faced significant knee problems
for the next few years.
There is no doubt that Dye’s health was a significant
issue during his collapse. Once Dye’s knee regained full health,
so did the thunder in his bat.
在Dye的案例中，這其實是有機可循的
2001季後賽的時候，一顆自打界外球打斷了他的脛骨，
接下來的幾年，他的膝蓋一直出問題
毫無疑問的，Dye在這幾年中，健康對他一直是個問題，在他回復健康之後，
他的棒子也跟著回來了
Should we consider Andruw’s weight problems to be similar to
Dye’s knee problems? Well, we might have a lot less sympathy for Jones,
who caused his own physical issues,
when Dye was the recipient of some bad luck.
However, whatever caused them, the underlying fact is that
both had significant physical problems that limited
their ability to hit a baseball, and that Jones’
problems are no less fixable than Dye’s were,
given he puts in the effort to get himself back into shape.
我們要不要把安豬痴肥的問題歸類為跟Dye的膝蓋相同的問題？
我想，我們可能不太需要同情安豬，因為不像Dye是衰洨，這是他自找的
但是無論這些問題是怎麼來的，
事實是，這些都造成了他們生理上的問題，限制了他們擊球的能力
這麼說吧，安豬的問題不會比Dye的問題來的棘手，
而且我們知道安豬有在努力解決他體重的問題
Make no mistake – I am not saying that Andruw Jones,
heading into his age 32 season,
is about to rip off five seasons that match what
Jermaine Dye has done since 2004.
However, I think we should all keep Dye in mind
when we jump to conclusions about what 250 terrible
plate appearances mean in the context of a player
losing all abilities to hit a baseball.
不要誤會我，我不是說即將邁入32歲的安豬會打得像Dye 2004之後一樣
但是我們應該要把Dye放在心裡尊敬（誤）而且不要妄下斷論說
250個糟糕的PA告訴我們這個球員已經失去了所有的打擊能力
For the Rangers, this is a pretty terrific move.
The Ballpark in Arlington is a great place to hit,
and a little confidence goes a pretty long way
when you’re trying to convince someone that
their hard work has a payoff.
If Jones really does commit himself to getting back
in baseball shape to try and save his career,
the Rangers could easily find themselves with a guy
who reminds everyone that he can still hit a baseball.
對於條子來說，這是一個很棒的約
阿靈頓球場不能鐵齒，要放在心裡尊敬，說不定會是安豬信心回升的關鍵
如果安豬可以很有決心的要減重，條子應該很快就可以看到收穫
Just like we shouldn’t have written Dye’s eulogy in 2003,
neither should we kill off the career of Andruw Jones prematurely.
He’s going to have to work his tail off, but there’s upside here.
就像我們不應該在2003就對Dye吹西索米一樣，
我們也不應該直接說安豬的生涯完蛋了
安豬需要很努力的證明他自己，但是事情不是憨人所想的這麼簡單（誤）
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重點:安豬的生長曲線可能會像Dye
一樣先達到一個Peak,然後走幾年的下坡，
回升之後，再達到一個peak.
各位看官，您相信嗎？XD
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