[情報] KLaw on Souza's trade
看板Diamondbacks作者fountainNess (YasmanyTomas今年40HR)時間6年前 (2018/02/23 01:00)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1
Tuesday's three-team, five-player trade (with two more players to be named
later) was apparently several weeks in the making, and sees two 2017 playoff
teams improving themselves for this season, while the Tampa Bay Rays continue
to deal veteran players who don't project to be around when their next young
core is ready to contend.
Steven Souza Jr. made some swing and approach changes last season in Tampa Bay
to unlock more power, boost his walk rate and even get his strikeout rate down
to a still-high 29 percent -- a level that at least allows him to be a
productive hitter. He's an above-average defender in right field, and even if
some of the power spike was fluky or a result of the juiced ball, he's also
moving to a very good home run park in Arizona's Chase Field. Combining Souza
with Jarrod Dyson (signed for two years and $7.5 million) gives the
Diamondbacks a very good if relatively unknown four-man rotation for their
outfield. Dyson is the extra guy but is capable of starting in center --
important given A.J. Pollock's injury history -- and offering potentially
above-average defense at all three spots.
Taylor Widener was the No. 15 prospect in the Yankees' system, coming off a
great year as a starter that was his first full injury-free season in that role
since at least high school. The right-hander has been clocked throwing up to
95 mph, complemented by a solid-average changeup and breaking ball, the former
missing more bats and the latter generating weak contact. There's back-end
starter upside, while Widener could be better in a long reliever/swingman role
because he doesn't have a platoon split.
The Diamondbacks won 93 games last year, in a season where a lot of things
went right, but they seem to be planning for some modest regression by picking
up several inexpensive players who can help mitigate any slippage from 2017.
Anthony Banda was ranked seventh in Arizona's system, and has both a plus
fastball and some solid-average secondary stuff, showing plenty of control but
below-average fastball command that made him very homer-prone. The Rays don't
need a fifth starter for the first month of 2018, but Banda would be a
potential candidate for the fifth spot (behind the incumbent, Matt Andriese,
who will start the season in the bullpen). The left-hander is perhaps a bit
more major league-ready than Brent Honeywell but lacking Honeywell's much
higher upside. If Banda can improve his command, he could be a solid No. 4
starter, whereas right now his projection is more fifth starter-like because of
the likelihood he'll give up 30 homers over a full season.
Joining Banda en route to Tampa Bay is second-base prospect Nick Solak, who
projects as a below-average regular, with some feel to hit but high strikeout
rates, below-average power and just average run and field tools. He was ranked
No. 18 in the Yankees' system, and would not crack Tampa Bay's top 15.
The Rays were crushed last week after trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi for a
minor prospect and designating DH Corey Dickerson for assignment, but those
moves were generally team-neutral for 2018. Odorizzi was replacement-level last
season and missed time with a back injury that calls his durability into
question going forward; the Rays had Andriese, Honeywell and perhaps Jose De
Leon to fill that spot at lower cost without any projected lack of production.
Dickerson's crazy first half last season was a big outlier from the rest of his
career; he hit just .241/.282/.408 in the second half, closer to his career
norms before the season, and he's long had trouble hitting lefties. The
free-agent market this winter was flooded with left-handed-hitting,
left field/first base/DH types, which meant there wasn't much market for
Dickerson's services either -- so by cutting him now, the Rays saved 83
percent of his salary, and might be a win worse for the exchange.
This deal, on the other hand, hurts the Rays for 2018; Souza was about a
four-win player last season, and even if you assume some regression from his
career highs across the board, I don't think you could rationally project him
to be worse than 3.0 WAR in a full season. The Rays can still come out ahead in
this deal depending on who the players to be named are -- I'm told they're more
than just throw-ins -- but Souza, with three years remaining before free agency
, is a big loss, and Banda and Solak alone don't make up for it.
The Yankees' side of this is the easiest and probably least interesting to
discuss. Brandon Drury can play third base for them every day if they want to
give Miguel Andujar (and Gleyber Torres) more time in Triple-A, and he's played
some second base -- not very well, but enough that he could at least take on
the position on a part-time basis. If and when the Yankees decide to give those
two positions to their top two position-player prospects, Drury is an excellent
bench piece who can fill in at multiple spots. I'd like to see the Yanks give
him some work this spring at first base, a position he hasn't played since
rookie ball, but one he should be able to handle without trouble; it would give
him even more value and would give them a fallback option if Greg Bird
continues to have trouble staying healthy. Giving up two prospects from beyond
their top 10 for a piece like Drury who helps them now and still has some
untapped power makes perfect sense.
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02/23 09:08,
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02/23 09:08, 1F