[情報] Sporting News 2009 Diamondbacks preview
Arizona Diamondbacks preview
A month into last season, the Diamondbacks were on top of the majors. But their
bullpen faltered, and their young players stagnated. Following an 82-80 season,
Arizona did little in the offseason other than reduce payroll (gone are Adam
Dunn, Randy Johnson and Orlando Hudson, among others). But the D-backs still
have Brandon Webb and Dan Haren at the top of the rotation, and their young
players are a year older.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. What has happened to that homegrown talent?
The Diamondbacks regressed after their surprising run to the NLCS in 2007, and
the consensus is they are no more than the second-best team in baseball's
weakest division. However, any club would take Arizona's homegrown talent --
even if it isn't so young anymore. Shortstop Stephen Drew, third baseman Mark
Reynolds, and outfielders Justin Upton, Chris Young and Conor Jackson all are
under 26. Drew played in 152 games, hit 21 homers and ranked eighth in the N.L.
with 76 extra-base hits last season. Young strikes out too much but has
shortened his swing to correct that. Upton, 21, was rushed to the majors and
took his lumps in the field (11 errors in 100 starts), but he is one of the
game's best athletes. Reynolds, 25, set the major league strikeout record (204)
last season but hit 28 homers.
2. What's the weak link?
Arizona ranked in the bottom half of most offensive categories, but the offense
isn't as much of a concern as the bullpen. The Diamondbacks lost two of their
top relievers -- Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz -- in free agency and didn't spend
much for replacements. The biggest acquisition was veteran Tom Gordon, and he
might not have many outs left in a 41-year-old arm that has broken down the
past two seasons. Chad Qualls becomes the closer by default, but has little
experience in the role and blew eight of 17 save opportunities in 2008. The
club needs 6-10 Jon Rauch to bounce back. The D-backs traded for Rauch before
last season's deadline, and he responded with the worst stretch of his career
(6.56 ERA in 26 appearances with Arizona).
3. Who's in the outfield?
Young, who has plus range and a strong arm, will man center for the third
consecutive season. Upton returns to right, and the converted shortstop has the
tools to master the position. Conor Jackson likely will start in left, though
the converted first baseman is a lia
bility in the outfield. One reason the club
went cheap in the offseason is because of Eric Byrnes. After signing a
three-year, $30 million deal in 2007, he blew out a hamstring and missed 110
games in 2008. His starting job is long gone, and he just made his Cactus
League debut late last week. If Byrnes can return to his '07 form, he will give
manager Bob Melvin the nice problem of trying to shuffle four outfielders
worthy of playing every day.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. 2B Felipe Lopez.
Has big hole to fill taking over for departed Orlando Hudson.
2. CF Chris Young.
Production slipped (22 HRs from 32), Ks rose (from 141 to 165) in '08.
3. SS Stephen Drew.
Hit .291 with .836 OPS in second season as regular.
4. LF Conor Jackson.
Hit .300 for first time in four-year career.
5. RF Justin Upton.
With a year's experience, expect improvement (121 Ks in 356 at-bats).
6. 1B Chad Tracy.
If right knee holds up, he also could see time at 3B.
7. 3B Mark Reynolds.
Led club (excluding Adam Dunn) with 28 HRs, led world with 204 strikeouts.
8. C Chris Snyder.
His 16 HRs, 64 RBIs earned him a three-year contract.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Brandon Webb.
Leads majors in wins (56) over past three seasons;
his 3.13 ERA in that span is best among righthanders.
2. RHP Dan Haren.
At least 14 wins, 216 IP, 33 starts each of past four seasons.
3. LHP Doug Davis.
Limited to 26 starts in '08 because of surgery to remove cancerous thyroid.
4. RHP Jon Garland.
Team's top free-agent acquisition went 14-8 with 4.90 for Angels in '08.
5. RHP Max Scherzer.
Struck out 66 in 56 IP during rookie season.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Chad Qualls:
With Lyon gone, the job is all Qualls' for first time.
GRADES
Offense: C. Until the young talent improves, this will be a team that strikes
out too much and doesn't take advantage of its speed (tied for 13th in N.L.
with 58 steals last season). The lone change in the lineup -- Lopez for Hudson
-- won't help offensively or defensively.
Pitching: B. Led by a strong 1-2 rotation punch, the D-backs posted the lowest
ERA of any N.L. team that didn't make the playoffs. The rotation will be even
stronger if Max Scherzer fulfills his potential. The bullpen, however, has
questions after losing two key members and with Rauch's late-season struggles.
Bench: B. If Byrnes can return to the form, he'll make a good fourth
outfielder. Veteran first baseman/pinch hitter Tony Clark, who still has some
power, returns. Reliable Augie Ojeda and Miguel Montero also are back in their
utility infielder and backup catching roles, respectively.
Manager: B. Melvin has done a nice job bringing along the young Diamondbacks,
with the possible exception of rushing Upton (and that wouldn't have been all
his call). Arizona is aiming for its third consecutive winning season, though
Melvin must take some responsibility for the slip from 90 wins and a division
title in '07 to 82 wins in '08.
Sporting News prediction: The Diamondbacks started 20-8 before settling for
second place in 2008. Even if the offense improves, as expected, the D-backs
likely will repeat their second-place finish because of deficiencies in the
bullpen and on defense.
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