[翻譯]Tigers would have been better served by picking up option

看板DET_Tigers作者yyjack (小虎)時間13年前 (2010/11/09 02:01)推噓9(9推 0噓 8→)

留言17則, 9人參與討論串1/1

原文出處： http://www.blessyouboys.com/2010/11/7/1800196/tigers-would-have-been- better-served-by-picking-up-jhonny-peraltas (文中的數據圖表請上原址看比較清楚) Tigers would have been better served by picking up Jhonny Peralta's option Jhonny Peralta's best season in professional baseball was in 2005. His second best was in 2008. He managed to hit for a fair average in both years, as well as some power. However, in the past two seasons, he has gotten worse and worse at the plate, and in the field he was driven from the keystone position of shortstop to third base until Detroit returned him to the middle of the infield. Peralta的生涯年遠在2005球季，第二個高峰在2008，這兩季他能夠維持一定的AVG加上不錯的POWER，但近兩季在進攻的表現上則每況愈下，另外因防守不力從SS被移至3B，直至來到老虎才又將他移回SS. Sunday the Detroit Tigers agreed to a two-year deal with him worth at least $11.75 million with an option for a third year that would increase the total value of the contract to $17.25 million. Peralta的新合約包含兩年保證約共11.75m加上第三年的球隊選擇權，總值可達17.25m They now have a below average defender at shortstop and first base, as well as a third baseman who has been sliding closer toward average each season. And they have this infield for the next two seasons and possibly three. 我們現在擁有守備能力低於聯盟平均值1B & SS，還有個防守日益衰退逐漸接近平均值的3B…(英吉你要撐住阿~~)而這樣的陣容看來將維持至少兩年(甚至三年) Excuse me if I take a moment here to mourn for the future of contact pitcher Rick Porcello, whose ability to get ground balls requires the team to put a solid infield defense around him. This infield defense is certainly doing him no favors going forward. 忍不住提一下Porcello，這樣的內野陣容，不就是要滾地球投手他的命嗎?? But at least Peralta can contribute some offense right? He had 14 home runs in 2010, and has had as many as 23 in the past. I just hope the Tigers are not making the mistake of overvaluing the RBI statistic, because it's hard to find a reason they would give Peralta such a pay raise for any other reason. Clearly, they overvalue offense, learning nothing from the fact 2006 and 2009 were the team's best two seasons since the 1980s and both years were predicated on a defense-first mentality. 至少，Peralta能提供一定的火力吧??10球季有14轟，最多一季有23轟實力，但作者希望這個合約不是因為球團高估了RBI價值，不然怎麼看，都不該給這麼高，另外我們自80年代以來戰績最好06 & 09兩個球季，其實都是以防守為主的陣容(這我不完全同意…) The past two seasons, Peralta has been a 1.4 and 1.2 wins above replacement player. This is obviously a slight improvement over Adam Everett, who was a 0.6 win player in 2009 and 0.3 in 2010. 比較這兩季Peralta跟Everett的win share 1.4/1.2 vs. 0.6/0.3，當然是前者樂勝啦~~(跟Everett比…誰會輸阿??) Worrisome are Peralta's splits at Comerica Park during his career: 還要擔心的是，Peralta生涯在咱們自家主場都打得很不順手 Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Comerica Pk 321 33 78 16 0 6 40 25 60 BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip .243 .295 .349 .644 .277 Not good. In the past two years, they have been even worse. For example, this was the picture in the 2010 season: 恩…不好，而且是越來越糟… Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Comerica Pk 121 9 27 4 0 2 19 11 16 BA OBP SLG OPA BAbip .223 .284 .306 .589 .238 Obviously too much can be made of splits. They are a smaller sample size. But the picture in Detroit so far has been bleak and consistently bad over so many seasons it does not give a lot of confidence. 你可能會說是樣本基數太小，不夠準確。但持續幾季的低潮，仍不能讓人太過於樂觀 Another reason to worry about this deal: The closest comparisons to Peralta, however, will not thrill Tigers fans. He is remarkably similar to Neifi Perez and Edgar Renteria at similar ages: 再一個擔憂的地方，如果仔細比較~~會發現Peralta與兩位前老虎SS： Neifi Perez/ Edgar Renteria的生涯成績/年紀非常非常相似 (OH~~這真的有嚇到我….) 原文有圖，但我不會轉圖上來，磕頭道歉…..ORZ The wOBA stat is a quick way of encompassing all the things a batter does into one quick glance. It's scaled to look similar to the OBA we are already familiar with. In other words, .330 is about average. .350 and above is good. Peralta's woBA the past two years has been .304 and .309. wOBA是一可以快速綜觀打者整體能力的數值(有哪位高手可以解釋嗎?? 我是不大熟)，簡而言之這項數據.330是平均值、.350就很不錯了，而P eralta近兩年的成績分別為.304 & .309… As you can see, neither Renteria nor Perez were good players at the age of 28. The Tigers have to hope Peralta follows Renteria's lead and improves. However, Renteria went from the American League to the National League and showed his improvement there. And hey, at least Perez could play some defense. 從wOBA的數據可知，Renteria和Perez在28歲這個年紀都不怎麼樣…現在我們得祈禱Peralta能夠進步甚至打破這樣的成長軌跡別忘了Renteria回到國聯後，成績大躍進，Perez還能提供防守 (所以是說Peralta可能甚麼都沒有?!) The Tigers didn't have a lot of good choices in finding a shortstop for the 2011 season. The free agent market was not ripe, and the internal candidates were not great. However, Detroit would have been best served by picking up the 2011 option for $7.25 million rather than locking in a player like this for multiple years. This move is not one to be celebrated. It is one to be tolerated, and only when we get to the end of the offseason and are able to look at the moves as a complete group. 結論：在這個季外，SS真的沒有太多好物可供選擇(這也是我在先前文章一直強調的)，然而，作者認為既然如此不如直接撿最後一年7.25M的option，而非簽2+1的複數年合約，那可能會使陣容再一年後更加缺乏彈性。對這個合約，我們不必訝異，更無須歡喜，就這是個不好不壞的選擇，成敗與否，仍要看整個offseason，我們到底搶到那些大咖。 The end… PS:我個人是沒如此悲觀，不過最慘大概就是如此，大家先有個心理準備也不錯XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.44.117.158

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