[討論] Sarris: What lies ahead for the Cubs
The Cubs aren’t terrible, but they arent’t in first, and they were supposed
to be. Is the rotation to blame? Will help come from within?
The north siders are still supposed to end up first in the division, as
FanGraphs’ team projections still have them ending up the best team in the
National League Central. It always seems to come down to pitching for the
Cubs, and it’s no different this year — only one National League team has
scored more runs per game this year, but the Cubs’ starting rotation has
been worst among teams over .500.
The first piece of good news is that the rotation is full of established
pitchers with proven track records. Once you have a track record, the numbers
say you generally return to that talent level as you go forward. Sure, age
comes for everyone, but regression pushes you back to your established norms.
And so, since the Cubs’ rotation has struggled, it might not be surprising
to see that only one team is expected to show better results in the second
half relative to their first half results.
To figure that, I took all starting pitchers who have thrown over 60 innings
and converted their production into a rate stat: Wins above replacement per
200 innings. Then I took their Steamer rest-of-season projected WAR/200 and
compared the two. Finally, I grouped those changes by team. Here are the
rotations that are, in theory, about to gain the most from regression going
forward.
Team 2nd Half SP WAR/200 Regression
Reds 8.0
Cubs 6.9
Rangers 4.5
D-Backs 4.1
Royals 4.1
In Luis Castillo, the Reds have one of the three pitchers in baseball most
likely to see greener pastures going forward. But with Tyler Mahle and Sal
Romano also near the top of that leaderboard, it’s fair to wonder if the
Great American Ball Park is bad for young pitchers. If extreme ballparks can
make it tough for teams to win, maybe part of the reason why is that they
frustrate half of their youngsters. In other words: how are the Reds going to
get confident young pitchers if their park isn’t going to help them achieve
that confidence?
But let’s get back to the Cubs. The only starting pitcher operating at
Castillo’s talent level right now is Mike Montgomery.
That might seem weird to say with Jon Lester sporting an ERA near two with a
10-2 record, but the peripherals for Lester aren’t great right now. His
strikeout rate is the second-worst of his career, his walk rate is at its
worst point in seven years, his home run rate is the third-worst of his
career, and his fastball velocity is the worst of his career.
In fact, the difference between his results and the peripherals that make up
the WAR projection make for a record-large chasm. Projections say he’ll
return to form by his peripherals and ‘earn’ his production better going
forward. The shape of his production — since it should contain more
strikeouts and fewer walks going forward, leading to a better WAR — may
contribute to the Cubs’ ranking on that leaderboard above.
A less complicated way to say it: Jon Lester is not the problem.
A couple Cubs are at the bottom of the list when it comes to positive
regression, though, and they are worth worrying about. Well, you know, in a
sports-worry kind of way. Hopefully a fun way.
Pitcher Team ERA WAR/200 ProjWAR/200 Diff
Steven Matz Mets 3.68 0.0 3.4 3.4
Danny Duffy Royals 5.18 -0.5 2.5 2.9
Luis Castillo Reds 5.70 0.2 2.9 2.7
Brandon McCarthyBraves 4.92 0.5 3.0 2.5
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 4.58 1.4 3.9 2.5
Matt Koch Dbacks 4.40 -1.4 1.0 2.4
José Quintana Cubs 4.26 1.5 3.9 2.4
Chase Anderson Brewers 4.37 -0.2 1.8 2.1
Kyle Hendricks Cubs 3.73 1.1 3.2 2.0
Cole Hamels Rangers 3.41 0.4 2.4 2.0
Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks have been pitching like below-average
starting pitchers instead of the All-Stars they are supposed to be. Yu
Darvish was a mess before he got injured. Will they naturally return to form,
or is there something actually wrong here?
Kyle Hendricks
Since Hendricks’ velocity and swinging strike rate are actually up from last
year, the real nexus of concern about the righty is about his home run rate.
It’s up nearly double his career rate. He gave up another two last night to
the Dodgers. Why?
His changeup is still plus, and two homers on righty-on-righty inside
changeups that didn’t quite drop far enough are not symptoms of a larger
problem. His curve isn’t amazing, but two homers on the curveball this year
aren’t really the issue either. It’s the 12 homers against his fastball —
both of Hendricks’ fastballs are giving up homers at nearly twice the rate
they did last year.
By movement and velocity, both of Hendricks’ fastballs are better this year.
His four-seamer has more ride, his sinker more sink, and both have more
velocity. But obviously his command is not as good, and the pitcher has
noticed.
“There’s a couple things going on,” Hendricks told The Athletic‘s Sahadev
Sharma last week. “It’s one of those few things. When it starts going
sideways, it’s been tough to just lock it back in. At least it’s there more
of the time right now. I just gotta work on that consistency.”
So let’s take a look at where Hendricks’ fastball-turned-homers have come.
Not pictured are the two from last night: one was a four-seam high but in the
zone, and the other was a sinker down and away but in the zone. That follows
the pattern, which is to say that all of these balls are squarely in the zone.
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/06/27133137/HendricksHomers.png
A lot of the middle of the plate. But look at the types of pitches: homers
have come on four-seamers middle-down and sinkers up. You normally want the
four-seamers up and the sinkers down. Definitely mistakes.
But there might be some problems with his approach that are leading to these
mistakes. Look at where Hendricks was throwing his four-seamer to lefties
last year (left) and this year (right).
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/06/27133627/HendricksLH4s.png
Hendricks is both more predictable with his four-seamer this year and also
catching more of the zone. That’s relevant to all of the four-seam home runs
he’s given up, which all live within his heat map and aren’t major
deviations from his approach.
We’re still talking about the guy with the third-best Command+ score in
baseball and a long history of great command. Watch for some inside
four-seamers to lefties, and maybe more outside black, and you’ll see how
Hendricks will return to his roots.
José Quintana
Statistically, the strangest part about Jose Quintana’s work this year is
his walk rate. His walk rate is currently 60 percent higher than it’s ever
been before, which is weird because he’s known for his command. By Command+,
he’s still above average… but only eight starting pitchers have lost more,
year to year, when judged by that stat. (Guess which Cub is number one on
that list.)
Absent a physical injury, a loss of command like that is weird. Sometimes
that can just happen — the year to year relationship of Command+ is only
about as strong as the one for walk rate, which fluctuates, as Q himself is
showing us — but it’s also interesting to see how the pitcher’s other
changes may have contributed to this situation.
Last year, Quintana gave up more homers per pitch on the sinker than any
other pitch. So this year, he’s back to throwing the four-seamer more often.
With respect to average, his vertical movement on the four-seamer is better
than his sinker, too. But Quintana’s Command+ on the four-seamer (105) is
worse than the one on his sinker (112). So, in effect, the lefty has traded
some of the hard contact on the sinker for the occasional wayward four-seamer
leading to a walk.
“Honestly, I think it’s just that sometimes I miss my spots,” Quintana
told Sharma through an interpreter after his latest start. “I’m always
trying to get ahead of the hitter and throw as few pitches as possible per
at-bat. But it’s just a matter of being consistent and getting ahead in the
count and finishing them off.”
Yet there is still some good news in Quintana’s changing mix. His changeup
has two more inches of drop this year, so it’s now showing the most drop it’
s ever shown. In subsequent news, the changeup is getting the most whiffs it’
s ever gotten.
This changeup from 2017…
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/06/27145603/QChange17.mp4?_=1
…is now this changeup:
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/06/27145646/QChange18.mp4?_=2
and that’s probably good news. It might be part of the added walks, as the
movement has changed, but having another alternative to the curveball is good.
Fastball command a little off in the face of changing movement sounds
familiar though. It couldn’t be the common thread here, could it?
Yu Darvish
Yes, yes it could. Because Yu Darvish also has slightly different stuff this
year, and he’s showing reduced command. Consider all the moving parts in his
arsenal:
His slider gained three mph
His cutter gained one mph
His curve gained three mph
His slider lost nearly two inches of drop
His cutter lost more than two inches of drop
His sinker added an inch of drop
His changeup added over an inch of drop
His slider lost two inches of cut
His changeup lost two inches of fade
His vertical release point dropped nearly four inches
Since only about 20 percent of pitchers that have thrown over 40 innings this
year throw more breaking balls than Yu Darvish, all those changes to his
breaking balls have to be considered worrisome. Throw in the fact that he
started with the second-worst Command+ in baseball last year and somehow
improved it, despite all of these changes, to the seventh-worst Command+
among starters, and you can see why he’s been having a tough time.
Now comes word from Sharma that Darvish was sitting 90 on his fastball and
didn’t throw any cutters in his rehab start, and you have to feel even more
concerned. Darvish himself seems to be somewhere between calm and frustrated.
“I obviously want the team to win,” the pitcher said after his start. “But
then again, my body has to feel right and healthy. In that sense, there’s
nothing I can do right now.”
Darvish was throwing some of his better velocity fastballs earlier this
season, and this was his first start back from injury. There’s still hope
that getting right on this rehab stint will get him back to that early season
velocity, while also helping him get a better touch for the baseball. With
the velocity, we’ll know within his first couple of starts in the big
leagues if he’s back.
It might take a bit longer to know what’s going on with the command.
This whole story points to how precarious command is. The pitcher needs to
throw the ball hard, with movement, and to do that he has to get all his body
parts to the right places at the right time. Then it’s a game of millimeters
when it comes to command. Your pitches are a bit different this year, the
velocity is different, your release point is a little off, and suddenly you’
re walking 28 percent more batters and allowing 55 percent more homers than
your regular career baseline.
At the same time, the numbers say Darvish will regress to the back of his
baseball card. One thing is for sure, though: Out of the three discussed
here, he’s got the biggest hill to climb.
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