[情報] Prospect Instinct 2012 | Javier Baez
When you’re compared to the likes of Gary Sheffield and Hanley Ramirez as a
high school player, people tend to take notice. Chicago Cubs scout Tom Clark
sure did. On his recommendation, the Cubs selected shortstop Javier Baez with
the 9th overall pick in the first round of the 2011 MLB player draft.
The versatile Baez has played shortstop, third base, and has caught. While
there are people who think he can stick at SS, the path is blocked by
Starling Castro and a move to 2B seems unlikely. He’s going to add to his
frame and while he could move to the outfield, realistically a move to 3B is
going to happen. Though the Cubs sent RHP Chris Carpenter to the Red Sox to
complete the compensation for Theo Epstein, they had discussed 3B prospect
Josh Vitters. Vitters, it could be argued, is no longer the prospect the Cubs
had hoped he would be, and that Baez fits more with their future vision. We
should have a clearer picture as 2012 plays out.
We discussed Baez in our 2011 MLB Draft Review right after he was drafted at
#9 by the Cubs:
BI Rank – #12 Javier Baez SS Arlington Country Day (FL) - Baez is currently
a SS but will move over to 3B as a pro. He has plus plus bat speed plus raw
power. He’ll profile well at 3B with an excellent arm but still needs time
to mature and focus what can sometimes be detrimental energy. If he can learn
to channel the energy into focus he could be an above average hitter to go
along with his plus power.
Instinct: The Cubs took a big upside bat here with a questionable position
path to the pros. They either don’t believe in Josh Vitters as their next 3B
or they think Baez can stay up the middle. Starlin Castro in Chicago and
Junior Lake breaking out this season it would seem the SS/2B spot could be
solved. So a move to 2B for Baez could be an excellent backup plan to
Castro/Lake. But I’m not sure he can handle the position.
The Puerto Rican native went on to sign with the Cubs and made it into 5
games between the Arizona League Cubs and the Boise Hawks of the Northwest
League. He went 5-18 with 2 doubles and 2 stolen bases in his brief stint.
He looks to open the season back in the Northwest league where we will have
several opportunities to get video of him.
In November, we ranked Baez as the #1 prospect in our Chicago Cubs 2012 Top
Prospect article. We went on to rank him at #55 overall in our Baseball
Instinct 360° top prospect list:
55°. Javier Baez, SS/3B, Cubs, 12/1/1992 - Offensively he has lightning
quick bat speed, which some have compared to another former Florida high
school shortstop, Gary Sheffield. Baez is an aggressive hitter although he
did show some ability to take walks as an amateur. He has a chance to be an
impact hitter who can hit for average and power, decent speed, as well as a
solid glove that will likely need to be moved to 3B or the outfield. ETA
2015.
Here’s what we see in Baez at the plate and in the field to rank him where
we did.
The Bat
Baez is just entering his first season so the data for any type of
statistical analysis isn’t available. But the fact that he hit .711 with 20
HR as a High School senior speaks volumes to his ability.
I had one of the top hitting instructors in the country take a look at the
Baez video below:
Skills Show Video : http://goo.gl/IRNwW
Our friend Joe Francisco of The Performance Factory in New York had this to
say about Baez hitting mechanics as he broke the swing down in detail:
Stance:
Relaxed comfortable slightly open stance
Stance is completely individual so it seems to work for him
Load:
Gets into a good launch position
Would like to see a smoother easy move getting back
Approach:
Aggressive approach
Creates momentum
Attacks the ball well
Swing Path:
Flattens out the bat and is able to keep it in line with the ball and in the
hitting zone for a long time
Extension:
Gets good extension through the ball giving him the ability to make a mistake
in the zone and still square the ball up
Finish:
Over rotates at times which can lead to him pulling off balls
Strengths:
Definitely has some bat speed and pop
Power potential – matches the plane of the ball well and has a good exit path
Aggressiveness – attacks the ball and doesn’t seem to get cheated
Weaknesses:
Technique – can definitely clean up his body position and improve his swing
making him way more consistent and repeatable
Aggressiveness – may be susceptible to off speed pitches at higher levels
Overall:
Needs polish mechanically to maximize his ability and reach his high
offensive ceiling. Without any game footage its hard to say how he can
project but with the lack of instruction at the minor league level he can be
hit or miss and is for the most part on his own.
Joe Francisco – March 12, 2012
www.YouTube.com/TeamFrancisco
The Glove
As a High School SS, Baez has the athleticism to handle any position change
that may be in his future. His motions are smooth and his arm is well above
average. While I would love to prognosticate his defensive home of the
future, I just think there are far too many variables for that to be
plausible.
If Junior Lake continues his development and proves that 2011 was not a
fluke, it will be Lake that makes the first move to either 2B or 3B. I think
that Baez may be able to handle either position as well depending on what
happens with Lake.
With that being said, Baez seems to be getting a shot at stick at SS. It’s a
very clouded picture in Chicago but a nice problem for them to have: three
shortstops with major league bats and needs at other positions.
Our Instinct
The top prospect in the Cubs system, Baez has tools on both sides of the game
that could make him one of the top hitters in the NL Central. His bat speed
is legit and if he can hold onto any bit of his above average speed, he’ll
have 5 tool ability when he reaches the majors.
He should start the season back in Boise but could move quickly up the ladder.
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03/26 11:59, , 1F
03/26 11:59, 1F