[外電] Playoff Preview: Hawks vs. Bulls
HOOPSWORLD 上面對於牛鷹戰的分析,參考看看就好
It couldn't have worked out any better for the Chicago Bulls, could it have?
While Indiana played them well in the first round, it was still the team
with the best record in the league up against the only playoff team with a
sub-.500 record. Now they're up against an Atlanta team that would've been
considered underdogs had they not lost Kirk Hinrich for the series to a
hamstring injury. This should be a relatively easy series for the Bulls,
right?
Well, that's what we said about Round 1 and the Pacers.
Atlanta is playing the best ball of their season right now, and they beat an
Orlando team in six games that many thought they had no business beating.
Depending on how much momentum Atlanta carries into this series, and how
good the Bulls end proving they actually are, this could be closer than
anyone expects. Or it could be quick and painless. The mystery of it is
what makes this series so watchable.
Point Guard: Jeff Teague vs. Derrick Rose
We're not sure yet what Atlanta will do to make up for the loss of the only
real point guard the organization has any faith in, but it's either going to
be extended minutes for Teague or the sliding of Jamal Crawford into the
starting lineup. Assuming Larry Drew wants to keep his playoff rotation in
tact (and Crawford's scoring off the bench is a huge part of that), Teague as
the new starter seems to be the direction we're headed, even though he only
played a total of 9 minutes in the series against Orlando.
If it is Crawford, you're looking at quite a bit more offensive production
out of that spot, but neither he nor Teague will be much competition for the
man C.J. Watson seems to have leaked will be the MVP. Derrick Rose is the
best player in this series, meaning no matter how you shake it, he's getting
the better of this matchup. Kirk Hinrich would've made it harder on him, but
even in that case it would be hard to bet against D-Rose.
Advantage: Bulls
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson vs. Keith Bogans
Keith Bogans does exactly one thing—hit the open three—and Joe Johnson does
a little bit of everything, scoring from all over the floor, running
defenders around screens and creative havoc on the offensive end of the
floor. It shouldn't be any secret that JJ is going to end up with the upper
hand in this matchup. Whether it's Bogans or Ronnie Brewer (and especially
if it's Kyle Korver) guarding Johnson, he's going to score a ton of points
and play a ton of minutes. He'll wear out Chicago's entire shooting guard
core all season long.
Advantage: Hawks
Small Forward: Josh Smith vs. Luol Deng
In terms of numbers and their importance to their teams, Smith and Deng are
pretty evenly matched. Deng is a little more integral offensively for the
Bulls than Smith is for Atlanta, but Smith is one of the better defensive
players in the entire league. That could spell trouble for Deng and his
ability to take some of the scoring load off of Derrick Rose, and ultimately
that's what gives Atlanta a slight edge at the small forward spot. Deng's no
slouch on defense either, so expect both players to see a slight dip in
scoring numbers this series, but Smith's defense is one of the Hawks' best
assets. Both players are important, but Smith slightly more so.
Advantage: Hawks
Power Forward: Al Horford vs. Carlos Boozer
Two years ago it would've been easy to say that Boozer was the better of
these two players, but not anymore. Even if Boozer wasn't rendered virtually
useless on the offensive end of the floor last series, he'd still be dealing
with the turf toe he suffered in the final game of the Pacers series.
Defensively, he's atrocious, and that's going to cause problems for Chicago
considering he's guarding one of the better post scorers in the league.
Horford's 12 ppg in the Magic series weren't unbelievable, but they were
enough to cause headaches for the Magic, which means they'll cause headaches
for Boozer and his sieve defense, too.
It should be noted that there's a reasonable possibility that this matchup
ends up looking more or less even by the time everything's all said and done,
but Boozer's injury and recent string of poor showings makes it seem as
though Horford will end up with at least a slight advantage in this series.
Advantage: Hawks
Center: Jason Collins vs. Joakim Noah
When looking at how many matchups in the starting lineups favor Atlanta, it
would easy to start making the assumption that they had more talent on their
roster. However, when you consider that two of the toughest positions on the
floor to fill—point guard and center—create such obvious disadvantages for
the Hawks, the picture starts looking a whole lot different.
It's not that Collins is a bad player, because he's not. It's just that he
doesn't play a ton of minutes per game, and neither he nor Zaza Pachulia can
match Noah's energy and effort on either end of the floor. Towards the end
of the Indy series, Noah came alive, and now that he's in the second round of
the postseason for the first time in his career it's hard to imagine him
playing any less jacked. As long as he can channel that energy, he'll handle
Atlanta's centers pretty easily. What could end up being more fun to watch
are the instances when Noah and his former college teammate Al Horford end up
defending one another.
Advantage: Bulls
Bench: Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, and Zaza Pachulia vs. Taj Gibson,
Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, Ronnie Brewer, and Kurt Thomas.
If giving an advantage to a bench was just a matter of comparing Crawford to
any other single Bulls reserve, Atlanta would clearly have an advantage. He
led his team in scoring in the first round, dropping 20.5 ppg, and he did it
from the bench. There isn't any other playoff team whose leading scorer is a
reserve. Not even close.
So yeah, the Hawks have the single best bench player in this series, but that
doesn't mean the rest of their rotation is better off than Chicago's Bench
Mob. The Bulls' second unit is easily one of the best in the league. The
sheer mass of solid reserves they have compared to Atlanta's Crawford and
Marvin Williams gives Chicago an advantage here.
Advantage: Bulls
Coach: Larry Drew vs. Tom Thibodeau
Both Drew and Thibodeau are in the midst of their first NBA playoffs as head
coaches, so in terms of experience you wouldn't think there'd be a big
difference. Thibs, however, has been in the coaching business a heck of a
lot longer, is only a few years removed from winning a championship as head
assistant for the Boston Celtics, and is in serious contention for the Coach
of the Year award. Conversely, there were times this season when some
weren't sure whether Drew would keep his job.
Thibodeau's system—particularly the defensive aspect of it—should prove to
be the difference in this series. If his players buckle down and defend the
way Thibs has expected them to all season (and postseason) long, the Hawks
don't look too threatening. They're a jump-shooting team, and that's the
kind of situation where Thibodeau's coaching can make a big difference.
Advantage: Bulls
Overall, it looks like Chicago has got the talent and coaching to win this
series, but the way this year's playoffs have gone you just can't know how
things will actually play out. The Bulls were supposed to handle Indiana
easily, too, but that didn't happen. The Spurs were supposed to win their
series, and Denver was supposed to put up more of a fight, and Dwight Howard
was supposed to be too much for Atlanta's bigs. None of that ended up
happening, and this series could be equally unpredictable.
For the sake of entertainment, let's hope so.
Final Prediction: Bulls in 5
Read more NBA news and insight:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=19636#ixzz1L9yGXq9Q
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