[情報] Sporting News 2009 Cardinals preview
St. Louis Cardinals preview
This Cardinals team has the potential to compete for a playoff spot this
season. And his position players will provide manager Tony La Russa with a ton
of versatility -- the kind that will keep him awake at night contemplating
different ways to exploit matchups in his favor. And, of course, he has that
Albert Pujols fellow.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. Who will close?
St. Louis made a strong push for free-agent closer Brian Fuentes, but he signed
with the Angels. Then, it decided to look inward for its ninth-inning solution.
Two hard-throwing youngsters, Chris Perez and Jason Motte, appear to be the
best candidates. Perez had seven saves and a 3.46 ERA for the Cardinals last
season, and Motte struck out 16 in his 11 innings with the team. However, La
Russa loves experience in the closer role, and both Perez and Motte are lacking
in that department. Ryan Franklin has a ton of experience, but he was just
17-for-25 in save opportunities after Jason Isringhausen was injured in 2008.
Josh Kinney, a key component of the team's 2006 bullpen, is an intriguing
option, but he missed nearly the entire 2007 and '08 seasons after Tommy John
surgery.
2. What about the middle infield?
The Cardinals hope to get more offensive production from shortstop and second
base. Adam Kennedy, released this offseason with a year remaining on his
contract, was a disappointment at second. The ideal scenario has former
outfielder Skip Schumaker making the transition to second base because the
outfield has way too many bodies, and he is the team's ideal leadoff man.
Because Schumaker needs to be in the lineup, the Cardinals are putting him
through a second-base crash course this spring -- one drill even had the
pitching machine dialed up to 95 mph, spitting grounders at Schumaker. At
shortstop, newcomer Khalil Greene is coming off a horrible season for the
Padres (he dropped from a .254 average, 27 homers and 97 RBIs in 2007 to
.213-10-35 in '08).
3. Are the Cardinals the biggest threat to the Cubs in the N.L. Central?
There are more questions this spring than most Cardinals fans would like. But
there is more talent in Cardinals camp this year than Cubs fans would like. The
Pujols-led offense can put runs on the board; the real key for the Cardinals is
getting 60-plus combined starts out of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.
Those two righthanders are capable of shutting down any lineup in the N.L. Even
without Carpenter, the Cardinals were only a few games out of first place late
last July before bullpen woes sunk their chances. If the youngsters can fill
the closer void and the combination of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick can produce
around 60 homers again (a big if), St. Louis will give the Cubs a run for their
money.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. 2B Skip Schumaker.
Team needs him to lead off; can he switch from OF to 2B?
2. LF Ryan Ludwick.
Coming off a breakthrough season (37 HRs, 113 RBIs).
3. 1B Albert Pujols.
N.L. MVP had career-best .462 OBP last season.
4. RF Rick Ankiel.
Finally, he's just a regular outfielder instead of a "great story."
5. C Yadier Molina.
Struck out only 29 times in 444 at-bats last season.
6. SS Khalil Greene.
Change of scenery will work wonders.
7. 3B Joe Mather.
Holding down the fort until Troy Glaus (shoulder surgery) returns.
8. SP.
This is Tony La Russa's team, after all.
9. CF Colby Rasmus.
Rookie will start in center -- either in St. Louis or Class AAA.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Adam Wainwright.
Was outstanding (11-3, 3.20 ERA) when healthy in 2008.
2. RHP Kyle Lohse.
Cashed in with four-year deal after 15-win season in 2008.
3. RHP Todd Wellemeyer.
Reclamation project had a 2.97 ERA in final dozen starts.
4. RHP Joel Piniero.
Won't last the year if he doesn't improve his 5.15 ERA from 2008.
5. RHP Chris Carpenter.
His healthy return would make St. Louis a legit playoff threat.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Chris Perez.
Youngster is a slight favorite, but Motte, Kinney and Franklin
are in the competi tion.
GRADES
Offense. B. Pujols is the best hitter in the game; Ludwick and Ankiel provide
power around him in the lineup. Schumaker's ability to adjust to second base is
key because he is by far the best candidate to lead off (.370 OBP hitting
leadoff in 2008). Greene being closer to his 2007 form than his 2008 form would
be a big bonus.
Pitching. B. There's no shortage of talent, but there are many questions with
the staff. Can Lohse and Wellemeyer combine for 28 wins again? Is Carpenter
healthy? Are Perez or Motte ready to handle the pressure of in the ninth
inning? Did the team solve its horrible lefthanded relief woes by signing
Dennys Reyes, Royce Ring and Trever Miller?
Bench. B. The camp competitions for second base, third base and outfield spots
will give La Russa plenty of opportunities to see what he'll have available on
his bench. Once Glaus returns, Mather will provide pop off the bench from the
infield or outfield.
Manager. A. La Russa often thumbs his nose at conventional wisdom, and that's
an approach that has worked well for him throughout his Hall of Fame-bound
career. There's no reason 2009 will be any different. He has a versatile roster
that he'll enjoy exploring.
Sporting News prediction: The Cardinals will challenge the Cubs all summer, but
St. Louis has too many questions to end Chicago's reign atop the division. St.
Louis will finish second, a bit behind the Mets in the wild-card race.
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