[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Cardinals Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The Cardinals had a winning record in 2008, drew over 3.4 million fans and had
the National League MVP — but they missed the playoffs for the second
consecutive season. And it seems possible all of those factoids will apply in
2009. Injuries played a part, but a team that finished 11.5 paces behind the
National League Central-winning Chicago Cubs has some obvious inadequacies to
address. The Cardinals are strong at the corners, talented in the outfield and
dependable behind home plate. But for 2009, they must fix a bullpen that was
among the worst in baseball. They have to rebuild the middle infield and
reinforce the starting rotation. Manager Tony La Russa also is hoping for
another impact bat to protect Albert Pujols in the middle of the order. Health
and player development might fill some of those cracks. General manager John
Mozeliak’s work over the winter may have caulked others. But will it be
enough? With baseball’s wild card berth, anything seems possible. But the
Cardinals will be hard-pressed to challenge for a division title and will need
some breaks to crash the 2009 postseason party through the back door.
Rotation
A late spring-training addition in 2008, Kyle Lohse wound up being a godsend
with 15 wins. Rewarded with a new contract, he has to do more of the same. Adam
Wainwright (11–3 and 3.20 ERA in 20 starts) will be atop the rotation if he
can stay healthy. In its dream of dreams, the club hopes 2005 Cy Young winner
Chris Carpenter can rebound from a series of nerve issues in his right arm, but
they dare not count on it. Todd Wellemeyer (13–9) is solid, but then things
get hazy. Veteran Joel Pineiro worked his way out of the rotation last season.
Kyle McClellan was impressive as a rookie reliever, but he is a starter by
trade and could step into that job in 2009. Two other youngsters, righthander
Mitch Boggs and Mike Parisi, could compete for jobs.
Bullpen
This group lost 31 games (second-most in the NL) and blew 31 saves last year,
as the club lost 25 games in which it was tied or leading after seven innings.
As you might guess, there has been change. After seven seasons with Jason
Isringhausen handling the closing duties, young fireballer Chris Perez will be
given the opportunity. Ryan Franklin (17 saves) will provide veteran insurance
for that role, or work in setup where he has been most effective. Hard-throwing
rookie Jason Motte will have chances both to close and setup. The Cardinals
have revamped the left side, with Trever Miller (Tampa Bay in ’08), Charlie
Manning (Washington) and Royce Ring (Atlanta) as specialists.
Middle infield
The Cardinals acquired shortstop Khalil Greene from the Padres and hope he can
rediscover a bat that produced 27 homers and 97 RBIs in 2007. Last year, the
former Clemson star slumped to a .213 average with 10 home runs and 35 RBIs in
an injury-shortened season. A return to form would be a huge boost to the
lineup. Adam Kennedy was supposed to be the long-term answer at second base
when he signed a three-year deal prior to the 2007 season, but he struggled in
his first year in St. Louis (.219 average in 87 games) and lost at-bats in 2008
after the team acquired Felipe Lopez in August. He was released in February
leaving the position wide open going into spring training. Brendan Ryan will
fill in at second, for now. He hit .244 in 197 at-bats last year, and while he
provides very little pop (no home runs), he can steal a base. He has seven in
each of his two seasons in the majors. There has been talk of giving outfielder
and leadoff hitter Skip Schumaker an opportunity at second.
Corners
You can’t ask for a lot more from these spots. Despite playing on a
fourth-place club, first baseman Pujols won the league’s MVP award with his
.357 batting average, .462 on-base percentage and .653 slugging percentage. He
also well could have won a Gold Glove, which he has done in the past. Third
baseman Troy Glaus got off to a slow start — three home runs through May —
but wound up batting .270 with 27 home runs and 99 RBIs. He’s already off to
a worse start in 2009 by having shoulder surgery in January, leaving him
unavailable for at least the first four weeks. Although his range is somewhat
limited, Glaus’ .982 fielding percentage was tops at his position in the NL.
Together, Pujols and Glaus combined for 64 homers, 77 doubles and 215 RBIs.
Outfield
There is lots of depth and another potential cornerstone, depending on health.
Ryan Ludwick won a Silver Slugger Award with a breakout season (37 homers, 113
RBIs). Rick Ankiel continued his storybook re-invention from promising pitcher
to promising center fielder with 25 homers in only 120 games, numbers that
would have been more impressive if not for injuries. The left-handed-swinging
Schumaker hit .302 mostly in the leadoff role. Rookie Joe Mather had eight
homers in 133 at-bats. Chris Duncan, who had 44 homers in his first 665
big-league at-bats, had his season stunted by back problems and hopes to
rebound. Duncan could be the “impact bat” La Russa is looking for. Keep in
mind that center fielder Colby Rasmus, the club’s No. 1 prospect, will be
competing for a spot in spring training.
Catching
Yadier Molina was the NL Gold Glove winner while having his best offensive
season (.304, 7 HRs, 56 RBIs). Still only 26, Molina has come into his own in
terms of handling pitchers and calling games, and he is one of the best
throwing backstops in the league. With only 164 at-bats last year, backup Jason
LaRue doesn’t get a lot of work, but the Cardinals like his defense and his
pop off the bench — 13 of his 35 hits went for extra-bases.
Bench
The depth of the outfield means a platoon that will always leave a solid bat on
the pine, whether it be Duncan, Schumaker or Mather. Both Mather and Duncan
have home run power and have been effective pinch hitters. LaRue is a
dependable backup behind the plate.
Management
La Russa is a future Hall of Famer and well respected as one of the best in the
game. His intensity rubs some — including opposing clubs — the wrong way, but
no one has his team better prepared and focused. Pitching coach Dave Duncan,
who added Lohse to a long list of successful reclamation projects, has the same
type of credibility. After years as Walt Jocketty’s assistant, Mozeliak is
still showing his hand. With a payroll hovering around $100 million the past
few seasons, upper management has frustrated some of the fan base with a lack
of big expenditures or name-brand trades. Rather, the club has professed a
commitment to player development head Jeff Luhnow and a desire to promote from
within.
Final analysis
The Cardinals have some lineup issues, to be sure. But a team with Pujols,
Ludwick and Glaus in the middle is not without hope. The critical factors will
surround pitching. The club has to have its top starters — like Wainwright and
Lohse (and possibly Carpenter) — remain healthy. At the same time, and equally
important, it has to re-establish a closer so the rest of the bullpen pieces
can fall into place. That last part may be a tall order, unless youngsters
Perez and Motte can assert themselves. The Cardinals don’t have the look of a
division winner, but this team is good enough to remain relevant well into
September.
Beyond the Boxscore
Winning tradition Not counting the strike-shortened year of 1994, which had no
postseason, the Cardinals have not had consecutive losing seasons in nearly 50
years — since 1958-1959. No other MLB team even approaches that consistency.
In the National League, the closest is Los Angeles, which has not experienced
back-to-back losing seasons since 1986-87. Atlanta last had consecutive losing
seasons in 1989-90.
Skipper Third base coach Jose Oquendo managed in the re-formed, six-team Puerto
Rican Winter League during the offseason. And for the second time, he will be
the skipper of Puerto Rico’s national team in the World Baseball Classic in
the spring.
El Hombre Albert Pujols, 29, joined Stan “The Man” Musial as the only players
to win more than one MVP in a Cardinals uniform. The 2005 National League MVP,
Pujols also became the first Dominican-born talent to win more than once. “I
cried like a little boy, like I did in ’05,” Pujols said after winning the
award.
Go figure Yadier Molina committed a career-high 10 errors in 2008; during his
first three full seasons, he had seven errors or fewer in every season. He also
had a fielding percentage of .986, which ranked eighth among National League
receivers, but tied for second in the league by throwing out 18 of 52 base
thieves, or 35 percent. Nonetheless, perhaps out of respect, he was the only
Redbird to be honored with a Gold Glove.
Money maker The Cardinals rewarded Kyle Lohse with a four-year, $41 million
contract after he emerged as their de facto ace in 2008. Known to butt heads
with Ron Gardenhire in Minnesota, Lohse embraced the baseball-rich St. Louis
environment and established a good relationship with Tony La Russa and Dave
Duncan. His 3.78 ERA was the lowest of his career, and he was 8–2 at Busch
Stadium. Lohse received a $1.25 million signing bonus. He will make $7.125
million in ’09, $8.875 million in 2010, $11.875 million in 2011 and $11.875
million in 2012.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Cards grabbed highly touted Arizona State third
baseman Brett Wallace with the 13th pick of the first round. An advanced
college hitter, Wallace won the Pac-10 triple crown in each of his final two
seasons in Tempe. Despite some gaudy numbers (.410, 22 HRs, 83 RBIs in 2007), a
lack of athleticism knocked him down some team’s draft boards. He was a first
baseman his first two years in college but moved across the diamond as a
junior. Once he signed his deal with St. Louis, Wallace moved up the ladder to
Double-A Springfield in less than two months. Overall, he batted .337 with
eight home runs and 36 RBIs in 202 professional at-bats.
2007 Top Pick — Peter Kozma, SS, Owassa (Okla.) High School
Batted .284 in 99 games at Quad Cities but struggled at .130 after being moved
up to Palm Beach of the Florida State League.
2006 Top Pick — Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern
A power pitcher, he struggled with injuries and consistency; 3–7 with a 5.23
ERA at Double-A.
2005 Top Pick — Colby Rasmus, CF, Russell County (Ala.) High School
Slow start and hip injury impeded his progress at Triple-A Memphis in ’08.
2004 Top Pick — Chris Lambert, RHP, Boston College
Dealt to Detroit in the Mike Maroth deal; was 1–2 with a 5.66 ERA for the
Tigers last summer.
2003 Top Pick — Daric Barton, C, Marina (Calif.) High School
Traded to Oakland as part of the Mark Mulder deal; batted .226 with nine homers
for the A’s.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
C Bryan Anderson (22)
Batted .281 at Memphis and is still highly regarded but didn’t show much power
with only two homers and 27 RBIs in 235 at-bats.
RHP Mitchell Boggs (25)
Led PCL starters in ERA and WHIP while going 9–3 for Memphis; went 3–2 in six
starts with the Cardinals.
RHP Jess Todd (22)
Shot through Cards’ system last year, going from Class A to AA to AAA; went 8–
6 with a 2.88 ERA in the three levels.
OF Jon Jay (24)
Had shoulder surgery to correct a recurring discomfort. Jay hit .345 in
Triple-A Memphis and .312 overall at two levels.
LHP Jaime Garcia (22)
A starter in the minors but was used as a reliever after a call-up. Elbow
problems led to Tommy John surgery in September.
Statistician
9 >> Number of Cardinals pitchers who registered saves during last season's
bullpen free-for-all.
.168 >> Skip Schumaker’s average against lefthanders. He batted .340 against
righties.
29 >> Strikeouts for Yadier Molina in 444 at-bats, while registering a
career-high .304 average.
1 >> Number of players in MLB history to start a career with at least a
.300 average, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs during his first eight seasons.
His name: Albert Pujols.
40 >> Number of losses the Cardinals had last season when they scored fewer
than three runs.
.281 >> Cardinals’ National League-leading batting average in 2008.
8 >> Spot in which the Cardinals’ pitcher batted in the lineup all of
last season. Tony La Russa plans to do the same in 2009.
2,461 >> Career managerial victories for La Russa. He ranks third on the
all-time list, 302 wins behind second-place John McGraw,
1,270 wins behind leader Connie Mack.
Difference Maker
When he was relatively healthy for three seasons — from 2004-06 — Chris
Carpenter was 51–18 for the Cardinals, a Cy Young winner and one of the best
pitchers in baseball. Since, he has had as many surgeries as he has starts
(four). But in a winter workout, it was determined that the complicated nerve
issues in Carpenter’s pitching arm were healing, and there was promise he
would be ready for spring training and be able to pitch this season. If that
promise comes to fruition, Carpenter’s presence dramatically changes the
landscape for the Cardinals’ pitching rotation, giving them a formidable
“Big Three” of Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.70.19