[情報] Prospect Smackdown: Jay Bruce vs. Colby Rasmus
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/3/132913/6209
Prospect Smackdown: Jay Bruce vs. Colby Rasmus
Background and Intangibles
Bruce: Bruce was drafted by the Reds in the first round in 2005,
12th overall, out of high school in Beaumont, Texas.
Named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year
in 2007, he had a terrific campaign at three levels, including
dominating Triple-A at age 20. Scouts love his makeup and work
ethic and praise his intangibles.
Rasmus: Rasmus was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round in
2005, 28th overall, out of high school in Phenix City,
Alabama. Rated as the top prospect in the Texas League last
year by most experts, he draws praise for his broad range of
tools and skills.
Scouts love his makeup and work ethic and praise his
intangibles.
Advantage: Both are high-profile draftees with pro success and
strong work ethics. Looks even to me.
Physicality, Health, and Tools
Bruce: Bruce is 6-2, 218, born April 3, 1987, a left-handed hitter
and thrower. Scouts love his strength and athleticism.
His worst physical tool is running speed, which still rates
a tick above average. He's expected to hit for both average
and power due to his exceptional bat speed. His plate
discipline is erratic and he strikes out a lot, but his bat is
so quick that the less-than-perfect strike zone judgment
has not hurt his performance so far against pro pitching.
He's aware of this issue and it shouldn't be a long-term
problem given how hard he works. Overall he is a complete
package physically, though he may lose his speed as he ages.
He plays center now but may move to right field in the future.
Rasmus: Rasmus is 6-2, 195 pounds, born August 11, 1986, a left-handed
hitter and thrower. Like Bruce, his tools rate as slightly
above average to excellent across the board. He has above
average power, above average speed, and excellent plate
discipline. He is also a terrific defensive outfielder with
a strong arm. His strike zone judgment is a big plus.
Advantage: Bruce may have slightly more power potential and his bat
is a touch quicker, but Rasmus has better strike zone
judgment, will keep his speed longer, and is more likely
to be playing center field ten years from now.
Both of them have the physicality and tools to be
complete players.
Performance and Polish
Bruce: Bruce is a career .299/.362/.543 hitter,
including .305/.358/.567 in 50 games of Triple-A last year.
He is polished in most respects, needing only to tighten up
the strike zone a bit more.
Rasmus: Rasmus is a career .285/.371/.510 hitter, including
.275/.381/.551 in Double-A last year. He is polished in most
respects. His main problem is that he becomes too
pull-conscious at times, leading to hot/cold spells that can
inhibit his batting average.
Advantage: Rasmus has better command of the strike zone right now,
but Bruce has shown more of an ability to hit for average
against minor league pitching. Rasmus has produced a better
OBP but Bruce has shown a tad bit better power.
Projection
Bruce: Bruce projects as a superstar hitter with a high batting
average (once he settles in) excellent power production, and
fine defense in right field (in the long run). PECOTA comps
include Cliff Floyd and Manny Ramirez on the positive side,
and Dee Brown on the negative side. Upside VORP is 274.0
Rasmus: Rasmus projects as a star or superstar with a moderate batting
average, excellent power production, and excellent defense in
center field. PECOTA comps include Carlos Beltran and
Bobby Abreu on the positive side, and Dee Brown and
Willie Green on the negative side. Upside VORP is 139.0
Advantage: It's interesting that PECOTA sees Dee Brown as a comp for
both players, which basically shows you what a good
prospect Dee was before he fell apart.
PECOTA isn't everything course but I think the high-end
comps hold, with Bruce having a shot at developing into a
Manny Ramirez type (with better defense) while Rasmus would
be more in the Beltran class at the high end. PECOTA rates
Bruce's possible upside as significantly higher than
Rasmus', though I think it exaggerates a bit.
Summary
Ultimately I went with Bruce as the Top Hitting prospect in baseball,
with Rasmus at number three in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book.
As you can see they are very close, but ultimately I think Bruce's
offensive ceiling is just a tad higher than Rasmus', though Rasmus is
hardly a slouch and may develop into a more complete player in other
ways.
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我想這兩人，可能以後會常常拿來比較，雖然是不同類型XD
雖然我們已經有了Rasmus，但是我還是想好奇問一下
如果這兩人讓大家選，會選哪位呢???(怎麼好像變成料理東西軍了XD)
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