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1. Jason Heyward - OF - DOB: 08/09/89 - ETA: Aug. 2010
.323/.388/.483, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 74/49 K/BB, 15 SB in 449 AB (A- Rome)
.182/.240/.273, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 22 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
Heyward has barely 500 at-bats since being drafted 14th overall out of a
Georgia high school in 2007, but he's already shaping up as the Braves' best
position prospect since Andruw Jones. There's just so much to like about his
approach at the plate and compact swing, and big-time power should be on the
way. He'll probably be ready to hit 20 homers per year by age 22 in 2012, and
he could be a 35-homer guy in his prime. Maybe he'll cease being a stolen
base threat after he finishes filling out, but he'll be at least an average
defender in right field and maybe a whole lot better if he improves his
routes. While he's due to spend two more years in the minors, he's advanced
enough that he might be capable of holding his own for the Braves in 2010. I
rate him as the NL's best prospect.
2. Tommy Hanson - RHP - DOB: 08/26/86 - ETA: July 2009
3-1, 0.90 ERA, 15 H, 49/11 K/BB in 40 IP (A+ Myrtle Beach)
8-4, 3.03 ERA, 70 H, 114/41 K/BB in 98 IP (AA Mississippi)
5-0, 0.63 ERA, 10 H, 49/7 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP (AFL)
There was little fluky about Hanson's unbelievable Arizona Fall League line:
limit him to 60-70 pitches every five or six days and he'd dominate major
league hitters as well. Hanson's stuff, though, won't be quite as crisp when
he has to pace himself for 100-110 pitch outings. While he can throw in the
high-90s when he needs to, he's more often at 91-94 mph. His low-80s curve
remains his No. 2 pitch. However, his slider has come a long way in a short
time and his changeup is a fourth solid offering. The complete package could
make him a No. 2 starter in time. The Braves will give him some seasoning in
Triple-A after adding three starters over the winter.
3. Jordan Schafer - OF - DOB: 09/04/86 - ETA: July 2009
.269/.378/.471, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 88/49 K/BB, 12 SB in 297 AB (AA Mississippi)
Schafer's breakout 2007 season was tainted after he received a 50-game hGH
suspension last summer. He still denies ever using the drug, and he never
tested positive, of course, as there is no urine test capable of detecting
hGH. Schafer, who was being talked about as a potential midseason callup
before the penalty, started slowly after returning in mid-May, but did
improve with time. He ended up with a very nice line for a 21-year-old in
Double-A, though it came with a scary strikeout rate (at that pace, he would
have fanned 148 times given 500 at-bats). Schafer is an exceptional defender
in center field, so he's not going to have to hit for a particularly good
average to become a quality major league regular. His walk rate took a nice
step forward last season, and he continued to show 15-homer potential.
Lefty-lefty matchups pose him his biggest problems. Odds are that he'll fall
short of being a star. However, he might prove to be Atlanta's best option in
center by the All-Star break.
4. Gorkys Hernandez - OF - DOB: 09/07/87 - ETA: 2011
.264/.348/.387, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 79/48 K/BB, 20 SB in 406 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
With his batting average dropping 30 points and his stolen base total cut
from 54 to 20, Hernandez was a mild disappointment in his first year in the
Braves system after coming over in the Edgar Renteria deal. On the plus side,
he did up his walk rate and his isolated slugging percentage from .098 to
.123. Hernandez is never going to possess much power, but he can get the ball
out of the infield and his legs are good for turning singles into doubles and
doubles into triples. Defensively, he's an even better center fielder than
Schafer. His ceiling isn't all that high, but if he works on his bunting and
draws a few more walks, he could have a long career as a regular.
5. Freddie Freeman - 1B - DOB: 09/12/89 - ETA: 2012
.316/.378/.521, 18 HR, 95 RBI, 84/46 K/BB, 5 SB in 491 AB (A- Rome)
Freeman was also quite a prospect as a pitcher, and it looked like the Braves
might have a mistake in investing a second-round pick on him as a first
baseman after he hit .268/.295/.379 in his pro debut in 2007. As it turned
out, they knew what they were doing (they usually do). Freeman showed enough
last spring to earn a spot in full-season ball and he ended up as one of the
Sally League's best players at the tender age of 18. The lefty-swinging
Freeman has a line-drive stroke that could produce 40-double seasons someday.
He probably won't be a big home run hitter, but he possesses an unusual
ability to hit for average for someone so tall (he's 6-foot-5). He's also
developing into a fine defender at first base. He rather resembles the guy
he'll likely someday replace in Atlanta, Casey Kotchman.
6. Stephen Marek - RHP - DOB: 09/03/83 - ETA: July 2009
2-6, 3 Sv, 3.66 ERA, 39 H, 57/21 K/BB in 46 2/3 IP (AA Arkansas)
1-2, 1 Sv, 3.21 ERA, 12 H, 11/6 K/BB in 14 IP (AA Mississippi)
2-0, 2 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 7/2 K/BB in 12 IP (AFL)
Marek was 21-18 with a 3.51 ERA through 2 1/2 minor league seasons when the
Angels made the surprising decision to shift him to the pen prior to last
year. Many thought he would end up there, but there seemed to be little
reason to make the change so quickly. He spent April adjusting and was really
good in May and June before the Braves came calling and picked him up as the
second player in the Mark Teixeira deal. Marek remained in the pen for his
new team and figures to stay there permanently. His 91-95 mph fastball and
big-breaking curve could make him a closer someday, though he has to improve
his command. He'll almost surely spend a couple of months in Triple-A to
begin 2009.
7. Cole Rohrbough - LHP - DOB: 05/23/87 - ETA: 2011
3-4, 4.94 ERA, 55 H, 76/31 K/BB in 58 1/3 IP (A- Rome)
2-2, 3.41 ERA, 27 H, 28/8 K/BB in 31 2/3 IP (A+ Myrtle Beach)
Troubled by shoulder issues which weren't believed to be structural in
nature, Rohrbough didn't have the kind of 2008 season the Braves were
expecting. However, he did finish strong after a move up to Myrtle Beach,
amassing a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts of the year. Rohrbough throws in
the low-90s and racks up strikeouts with his curveball. He'll likely be asked
to focus more on his changeup after opening this year back at Myrtle Beach.
8. Kris Medlen - RHP - DOB: 10/07/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
7-8, 3.52 ERA, 121 H, 120/27 K/BB in 120 1/3 IP (AA Mississippi)
1-1, 2.14 ERA, 15 H, 25/1 K/BB in 21 IP (AFL)
Medlen, a 2006 10th-round pick out of a California junior college, thrived as
both a starter and a reliever last season, going 6-5 with a 3.11 ERA in his
17 Double-A starts and later dominating out of the pen in the AFL. His
long-term role remains up in the air, but if he's going to help the Braves
this year, it figures to happen as a reliever. Medlen works at 91-94 mph out
of the pen, and he has two breaking balls that he can throw for strikes.
Since his modest build may prevent him from holding up as a starter anyway,
it wouldn't be a bad thing if he settles into a setup role and stays there.
9. Julio Teheran - RHP - DOB: 01/27/91 - ETA: 2013
1-2, 6.60 ERA, 18 H, 17/4 K/BB in 15 IP (R Danville)
Teheran, who was signed as a 16-year-old in 2007, is still all hype at this
point. The Braves had him debut in the Appy League last June, but he came
down with a sore shoulder in his second start and he pitched just eight
innings after returning in August. Fortunately, no serious problems were ever
discovered. Teheran throws 90-95 mph and is said to have a very advanced
changeup for one so young. He'll probably again be held back until the
short-season leagues open.
10. Jeff Locke - LHP - DOB: 11/20/87 - ETA: 2012
5-12, 4.06 ERA, 150 H, 113/38 K/BB in 139 2/3 IP (A- Rome)
Locke couldn't duplicate his 74/8 K/BB ratio from 61 innings in Rookie ball
after moving up to low Single-A Rome last season, but he still fanned three
batters for every one he walked and limited Sally League hitters to six
homers on the season. Locke throws in the low-90s and shows a pretty good
curveball. The lack of a useable changeup is a problem, but he has plenty of
development time left. Even if he fails to come up with a change, he could
prove to be a quality setup man in the majors.
Next five: SS Brandon Hicks, RHP Craig Kimbrel, 3B Eric Campbell, OF Cody
Johnson, LHP Brett DeVall
Hicks, a 2007 third-rounder, offers ample power for a middle infielder, but
he struggled to make contact last season and doesn't have the range to be a
regular shortstop in the majors. He's likely looking at a career as a
utilityman. … Kimbrel, last year's third-round pick, posted a 0.51 ERA in 35
1/3 innings out of the pen after signing. … Campbell, who ranked third on
this list two years ago, hit .255/.362/.479 as a 22-year-old in high-A ball.
He still has a lot of growing up to do, but the talent doesn't appear to have
gone anywhere. … Johnson fanned 177 times while hitting .252/.307/.479 in
the Sally League last season. He's a long shot to fully harness his ability.
2008 top 15: Jordan Schafer, Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez, Brent
Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Eric Campbell, Cole
Rohrbough, Cody Johnson, Julio Teheran, Manny Acosta, Jeff Locke, Brandon
Hicks, Josh Anderson
2007 top 15: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Eric Campbell, Elvis
Andrus, Joey Devine, Brent Lillibridge, Jo-Jo Reyes, Brandon Jones, Anthony
Lerew, Yunel Escobar, Chase Fontaine, Kala Kaaihue, Steve Evarts, Van Pope,
Cory Rasmus
2006 top 15: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joey Devine, Chuck James, Elvis Andrus,
Anthony Lerew, Yunel Escobar, Brandon Jones, Eric Campbell, Beau Jones, Jake
Stevens, Macay McBride, Matt Harrison, Scott Thorman, Jeff Lyman, Martin Prado
2005 top 10: Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies, Jake Stevens, Wilson
Betemit, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew, Ryan
Langerhans
2004 top 10: Adam Wainwright, Andy Marte, Wilson Betemit, Jeff Francoeur,
Macay McBride, Kelly Johnson, Bubba Nelson, Dan Meyer, Adam LaRoche, Andy
Pratt
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