[情報] Hollinger's NBA 選秀雜談 拓會動#3嗎?
前言:跳著翻譯跟拓荒者有關的段落，其他內容簡易翻
來源: The Athletic, Josh Hollinger
網址: https://reurl.cc/qk92vq (需付費)
Hollinger’s NBA Draft Combine rumblings: What will Hornets do at No. 2? Will
Blazers trade No. 3?
火靈哥NBA選秀綜合雜談：黃蜂#2會怎麼選? 拓荒者#3是否會交易呢?
CHICAGO — We have one month until the draft, everyone is here for an event
geared to prepare for the draft … and nobody is talking about the draft.
離今年選秀日還有一個月，大家都為了選秀焦頭爛額，但...沒人會把策略直接聊出來
Now that Victor Wembanyama’s fate has been determined, the eyes of execs,
staffers and coaches here for the NBA Draft Combine are already
fast-forwarding to a long, interesting offseason.
斑馬的命運已經確定前往馬刺，各球團高層教練組已經把心力放在漫長有趣的休賽季
Among the hot topics:
稍微提一下幾個熱門話題
Five — count ’em, five — coach openings, and desirable ones at that:
Milwaukee, Phoenix and Philadelphia all offer the prospect of immediate
contention; Toronto has money and isn’t tanking; and, um, Detroit. The
Pistons might have been able to fish in the elite Nick Nurse/Monty
Williams/Mike Budenholzer waters if they won the Wembanyama lottery; landing
fifth likely puts them in first-time coach territory. Will the other plum
jobs be musical chairs among those three names?
現在有「五個」教練空缺，公鹿/太陽/76人/暴龍/活塞，如果活塞抽到斑馬，就可以
悠閒的Nick Nurse/Monty Williams/Mike Budenholzer裡面慢慢挑了，可惜沒如果
Whether the Clippers’ Tyronn Lue will extend that list of coach openings to
six or come to terms on a rich extension with LA. Lue only has one guaranteed
year left on his deal but has most of the leverage here, as he is quite
popular in rival front offices. The smart money seems to be on him staying.
快艇盧總會不會加上述名單，變成第六名教練空缺呢?
Washington’s slow-motion GM search, with news leaking so slowly that even
the term “leak” implies far too much velocity; this is, at best, an “ooze.
” Will the Wizards have a GM by the draft? By free agency? By November?
巫師總管還是空的，不知道哪時才會找到人選
The Ja Morant situation and how that might impact what other decisions the
Grizzlies make. If the league suspends him, what justification will it use,
and how long will he be sidelined? If it’s a big chunk of the season, how
does that impact the Grizzlies’ other offseason decisions?
Ja Morant二次玩槍事件會怎麼影響灰熊的操作呢?
聯盟這次禁賽又會用什麼理由呢? 禁多長時間?
And, not least of all, the potential for a wild offseason of wheeling and
dealing after so many teams pushed their chips in only to fall miles short of
expectations in 2022-23. This comes just as the league’s free spenders are
greeted with a new CBA that includes fairly draconian penalties for
profligacy.
狂野的休賽季準備開始了，今年太多球隊投入非常多資產卻沒有打出預期的成果。
同時新CBA開跑，準備懲罰超大團。
Relative to the draft, that last bullet point is perhaps the most relevant.
Several disappointed lottery teams are now in position to potentially trade
their pick, but a vexing question remains: Trade it for what? Which teams are
looking to throttle down and convert a star-caliber veteran into a draft
pick? Even teams that might get hammered by the new luxury-tax rules, such as
the Clippers and Warriors, don’t seem to be of a mind to just start shedding
talent.
最后一則選秀話題：多支樂透順位的球隊非常有可能交易他們的選秀籤，但耐人尋味的
問題隨之而來，你能交易到什麼資產？哪些球團準備賣球星拆了？準備被新CBA搞的快艇
跟勇士隊，目前似乎也不打算拆隊。
One can argue there are teams that should be doing this, mind you, but sorry:
There does not appear to be any willpower for this type of step back in
places like, say, Chicago or Portland or Washington. Zach LaVine, Damian
Lillard and Bradley Beal aren’t walking through that door. Toronto seems
like the only team that might — might — entertain dealing elite wings for
draft capital. As we’ll see in a minute, this state of affairs puts one
lottery team in particular in a quandary.
或許公牛、拓荒者和巫師都應該這麼做。LaVine, Lillard, Beal都沒打進季後賽。
暴龍則很可能是唯一一支球隊，能提供出優質側翼交換選秀資產。
Actual NBA Draft, and trade, talk
接下來談談選秀概況跟交易可能性
Speaking of which: Before we stick our heads too far into July, however, let’
s shift gears back to June 22. We can speculate all we want about various
maybes in free agency and trades, but I guarantee you there will be a draft
on June 22 and that 58 players will be selected. Since the draft happens
before free agency, some of the plentiful thorny issues waiting on draft
night could have considerable domino effects on other teams’ summers.
Only one thing is in no doubt at all: The Spurs are taking Wembanyama with
the top pick. You can go ahead and tell the engraver to get started on that
one.
馬刺不需要多談，選斑馬就對了
How the Spurs won the NBA Lottery: Inside the room where San Antonio's
fortunes changed
After that, things quickly get interesting. Among the scuttlebutt this week:
除了斑馬，後面的順位就開始有趣囉，這週的幾個乳摸分享
‧ The draft starts with Charlotte and the second pick, where the Hornets are
likely choosing between point guard Scoot Henderson of G League Ignite and
small forward Brandon Miller of Alabama. While Henderson is in my judgment
the superior talent, playing him and LaMelo Ball in the same backcourt could
give the Hornets pause. Charlotte isn’t tipping its hand, nor should it; a
trade down to No. 3 is another possibility, but only sellable if the team at
No. 3 isn’t sure which player the Hornets want.
黃蜂 #2也不確定選Scoot Henderson 還是 Brandon Miller，都有可能，
甚至可以向下交易給 #3的那支球隊，讓別人先選擇
‧ Note that I said “the team at No. 3” because of widespread speculation
the Trail Blazers, who currently own the pick, will seek to trade out of the
third position rather than select another young player. With Portland in “
win it for Dame” mode and the Blazers desperate for playable wings (even
presuming they re-sign Jerami Grant), speculation is already widespread that
a package of the third pick and Anfernee Simons might be used to snag an
elite small forward.
注意我用的措辭「#3 那支球隊」，因為#3的持有球隊拓荒者，正在尋求可以符合小李
時間線的側翼球員，同時也會簽下Grant，眾所周知，拓荒者最可能提供的包裹就是
Anfernee Simons + #3 換 菁英等級小前鋒
‧ My favorite fake trade, however, kills two birds with one stone by
resolving the Magic’s backcourt issue. Orlando holds pick Nos. 6 and 11 and
would likely be tempted to trade up and take Henderson if the Hornets select
Miller at No. 2. Could some combination of the sixth and 11th picks and
another asset allow the Magic to move up to No. 3?
火靈哥最喜歡的交易乳摸，拓荒者 #3 <> 魔術#6 + #11 + 其他資產。
但前提是黃蜂先選了Brandon Miller，魔術才能選Scoot Henderson來解決後場問題
The other half of this trade is that it would allow the Blazers to hedge
their bets by splitting their lottery pick in two. Imagine, for instance, a
scenario where the Blazers do this trade with Orlando, then deal the sixth
pick for immediate wing help but hang on to No. 11 and use it on Duke big man
Dereck Lively II. Of course, this still requires such a player to actually be
available, and parlaying the sixth pick into that player in particular could
prove problematic given that Houston and Detroit may want to do the same
thing at No. 4 and No. 5.
拓荒者可以用#6 選一位側翼球員，#11選 Dereck Lively II這樣的護框大個子
但有相對應的風險，火箭#4、活塞#5非常有可能把拓荒者想選的側翼球員挑走
‧ Complicating the logic for Portland at No. 3 is that Houston at No. 4 is
likely pursuing the same alternative. In fact, the Rockets are arguably even
more in “win-now” mode than the Blazers, despite a young roster coming off
a 22-win season. This is because the Rockets owe a top-four protected
first-round pick to the Thunder as a result of the Chris Paul–Russell
Westbrook trade and thus have little incentive to take their lumps for
another season: It’s time to win. (Houston also owes a top-four protected
first from this deal in 2026, as well as a top-20 protected pick swap in
2025. Yikes.)
情況其實非常複雜，因為火箭#4 也想跟拓荒者做相同的事情，尋求Win-Now模式，
火箭首輪籤在雷霆手上，沒得好坦
The fourth pick (not to mention their other pick at No. 20) is unlikely to
advance that objective on a roster that already has seven first-round picks
still on their rookie contracts, plus a 23-year-old Kevin Porter Jr. and a
22-year-old Kenyon Martin Jr. It would seem there isn’t room on the roster
to add two more young players if the Rockets are serious about taking a step
forward. Houston’s dreams of repatriating James Harden are well-chronicled,
and the Rockets will want the rest of their $60 million in cap room and room
exception to sign some veteran help.
簡單來說，火箭天賦爆了，選來也沒時間練，更重要是追求James Harden回歸跟如何利用
60M的薪資空間。
Of all the teams in the high lottery, Houston is the one that seemingly needs
to make a deal most urgently. The Rockets’ quandary, as noted above, is
whether there’s a player available who would justify such a high price, and
if so, whether the Blazers’ pick at No. 3 would trump them.
在高順位幾支球隊中，火箭會是最需要立刻談成交易的球隊。火箭的問題是能否找到一名
球員適配如此高的資產價值，那拓荒者#3 是否會比火箭提供的包裹來得有吸引力呢?
‧ Picking fifth, Detroit is hoping to make a move up this season, but is
that realistic? The Pistons might be better off trying to add another piece
to the Jaden Ivey–Cade Cunningham–Jalen Duren core and seeing what they
have after a 17-win season a year ago. This isn’t a great season to tank it,
per se, with a blah 2024 class waiting, but it’s not clear how Detroit would
move up even if it went all-in on the idea. The Pistons’ core players need
to get better before that’s a realistic strategy.
Yes, Detroit could theoretically trade its pick at No. 5, but look at the
landscape. News flash: The picks at No. 3 and No. 4 are more desirable than
the one at No. 5. With Portland and Houston likely looking to deal, it means
the Pistons will be third at the trough when it comes to
lottery-pick-for-star type trades; it’s tough to come up with one star
player who could fit the bill for a trade like this right now, let alone
three. The Pistons’ best move is likely another year of quiet building, and
perhaps hearing teams out on deals for Alec Burks and Bogdan Bogdanovio댊
活塞天賦也爆了，更應該追求戰績並整合，沒錯！所以活塞#5 也會非常想交易的，
但#5比不上 #3 & #4，所以有三支球隊都在找明星球員，但談成一位明星都非常難了，
更何況同時間有三位明星可以談，活塞更可能安靜地繼續選秀重建
‧ On a related front, I have some terrible news for fans generating fake
Mikal Bridges trades: The Nets don’t seem to have much incentive to play
ball here. Brooklyn owes unprotected picks to Houston in 2024 and 2026 and
unprotected swaps in 2025 and 2027. Thus, Brooklyn trading its good players
and tanking would do a lot more for the Rockets than the Nets. Brooklyn’s
likely best path forward is to muddle along with a Bridges-centric team,
especially since he’s signed through 2026 to one of the league’s best
contracts.
必須打醒這群生產籃網大橋交易假新聞的人，籃網欠火箭2024 & 2026無保護首輪，
2025 & 2027 首輪交換權。所以籃網根本不能坦，更可能圍繞大橋且戰且走，尤其
他簽下了全聯盟最好的合約直到2026年。
‧ Two other picks insiders expect to be in play: Dallas’ selection at No.
10 — likely paired with either or both of Dāvis Bertāns and JaVale McGee
to bring in more immediate help — and the Thunder’s pick at No. 12. In
Oklahoma City’s case, it’s still a long-term play, but the idea is that the
Thunder would use their surfeit of future picks to move up in this lottery;
they somehow have only one pick this year but are likely to have four firsts
in 2024 and still have four future firsts from other teams in 2025 and beyond.
小犢#10 可能會打包波燙或Mcgee去換即戰力，雷霆#12 會尋求向上交易順位
--------
短評或心得：
翻完真的有趣了，要找明星或戰力的球隊很多，肯定也包含季後賽隊伍，
Simons + #3的吸引力很可能沒有拓迷設想的這麼高?
--
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