[公告] 成本效益分析 95上 課程大綱
※ [本文轉錄自 Polioffice 看板]
作者: cbear (巧克力餅乾) 看板: Polioffice
標題: [公告] 成本效益分析 95上 課程大綱
時間: Fri Sep 15 23:50:51 2006
台灣大學政治學系
成本效益分析
44600/U0950：Cost and Benefit Analysis
Meeting time: F 10:20 -12:10 (Room 3)
Instructor: Risharng Chiang (Research Tower 215)
Email: rchiang@ntu.edu.tw
Office Hours: 10:00 - 12:00 am, Thursday
課程綱要：
本課程將以公部門如何進行計畫評估為主要授課內容，並輔以私部門之計畫
評估，以因應私部門日漸參與公共服務計畫之評估需求。課程將依計畫參數確定
性與否的假設，區分兩大授課內容。其一為確定下之成本效益分析，探討之評估
方法將以折現後現金流量分析法為主；其二為不確定性下之成本效益分析，探討
之評估方法將以決策分析與實體選擇權分析為主。擬探討之課題涵括成本與效益
之定義、社會折現率、成本有效性、風險報酬率、加權平均資金成本、資本資產
定價模式、多因子定價模式、機率性風險評估、選擇權評價模式等。討論之主體
對象涵括運輸、電信、電力、水利、遊憩區、工業區、科學園區、運動場、展覽
會場及各項公共服務等計畫。
Description:
This course emphasizes three contents -- cost-benefit analysis, decision
analysis, and
real options analysis -- all of which pertain to decision making that must
take into
consideration the presence of significant public benefit and cost/risk. In
public project,
the risks of interest are those associated with large projects such as: the
development of
new public services; the building, maintenance, and operation of
infrastructures; and the
large greenfield projects such as power plant, etc. This course present and
interpret
some of the many frameworks helpful for balancing costs/risks and benefits
which
typically involve human safety, potential environmental effects, and large
financial and
technological uncertainties in large public projects.
Course Content:
The syllabus consists of 2 major blocks covering 4 interlocking topics.
Part I. Covers the elements of project evaluation in the context of certainty:
- Evaluation techniques for projects that exist more than 3 to 5 years. These
feature
the discounted cash flow analyses essential for any realistic assessment of
significant public projects.
Concepts for correctly modeling technically and economically efficient
performance of projects. These derive from the economic notions of production
and cost functions. These theoretical functions lose important technical
realities,
however, and need to be replaced by technical cost models derived from a deep
understanding of the technical details of the project.
Part 2. Presents the techniques for analyzing projects in the context of
uncertainty.
These are:
- Decision and utility analysis. These two methods provide a coherent basis
for
determining the optimal value of possible choices in the design and
management of
a project and, thus, for determining an optimal choice. However, they do deal
effectively with evaluation over time, because they do not support a way to
do a
discounted cash flow that properly accounts for changing patterns of risk.
- Real Options analysis, an integrated approach that not only properly deals
appropriately with evaluation over time in risky situations but also
pinpoints the
value of specific project design elements. It thus gives decision-makers and
planners the means to decide what kinds of flexibility to build into a
project, and
when to exercise these options. With sufficient data, real options analysis
directly
calculates the value of flexible choices. More generally, as demonstrated
theoretically and by example applications, real options analysis of public
projects requires approximate methods.
Assignment and Procedures
There will be five or six problems (which will count for about 30% of the
course’s grade) and three quizzes (total about 60% of the grade).
Participation in discussion will count for 10%.
If you first make an effort to think things for yourself, I will be glad to
help you with homework before it is due.
Prerequisites and Preparation in Probability
Elementary calculus, of which we little use, is the only formal prerequisite
for this
subject. There will two lectures after the first quiz on the elementary
probabilistic ideas
that appear in project evaluation. See me soon if your background in calculus
and/or elementary probably is of concern.
Recommended Textbooks
No textbook is required for this subject. A large number of textbooks cover
each of the
three main topics (cost and benefit analysis, decision analysis, and real
option analtsis), but none, to my knowledge, covers all three.
While you may wish to purchase one or
more of these books for future reference, you do not really need any for the
class itself,
as the materials that will be posted or distributed will be sufficient.
However, four textbooks at the order of its importance to this course (even all are
optional for the interested reader) are recommended below.
The first two are reserved at the Law and Social Science Library.
1. Campbell, H. F. and R. P. C. Browan, 2003, Benefit-Cost Analysis:
Financial and
Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets, Cambridge University Press
2. Boardman, A. E., D. H. Greenberg, A. R. Vining, and D. L. Weimer, 2006,
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Concepts and Practice, Prentice Hall
3. Bertsimas, D., and R. M. Freund, 2000, Data, Models, and Decisions: The
Fundamental of Management Science, South-Western College Publishing,
Cincinnati, OH.
4. Trigeorgis, L, 2000, Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in
Resource Allocation, MIT Press
Course Schedule:
Part I. Cost and Benefit Analysis Facing Certainty
09/22 Introduction: Background and Fundamental Premises
09/29 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA): Economic Evaluation Techniques
10/06 Mid-Fall Festival; No class
10/13 CBA: Measures of Effectiveness and Capital Budgeting
10/20 CBA: Price Inflation; Cost Changes; Unequal Lifetimes
10/27 CBA: Presence of Uncertainty and Risk; Possibility of Catastrophic
Failure
11/03 CBA: Evaluation over Time; Discount Rates for Private and Public Sector;
Capital Asset Pricing Model
11/10 CBA: Value of Goods or Services with No Readily Available Market Prices;
Variations on CBAApproach
11/17 Quiz 1
Part II. Cost and Benefit Analysis Facing Uncertainty
11/24 Review of Probability
12/01 Decision Analysis (DA): Background, Decision Trees; the Value of
Information
12/08 DA: the Axioms of DA; the Concept of Utility; Decision Using Utilities;
Typical Utility Functions
12/15 DA: Single Attribute Utility; Utility Measurement
12/22 Real Options Analysis (ROA): Basic Concepts and Option Valuation
12/29 ROA: Real Options; Valuation of Financial Options
01/05 ROA: Valuation by Simulation
01/12 ROA: Application of Real Options; Course Wrap Up
01/19 Quiz 2
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