Mailbag: Is Jennings worth the risk?
12/18/2006 1:30 PM ET
Mailbag: Is Jennings worth the risk?
Beat reporter Alyson Footer answers Astros fans' questions
By Alyson Footer / MLB.com
原文出處 / http://myurl.com.tw/j3ig
Am I the only one who thinks this Jason Jennings deal could be a bust? Is he
really worth two starting pitchers and a quality center fielder in Willy
Taveras?
-- Daniel W., San Antonio
問︰我是惟一認為 Jennings交易失敗的人嗎？他真值得
拿兩名先發投手以及像 Taveras這樣優質的中外野手去
換嗎？
Sure, the Jennings deal could be a bust. That's the risk that comes along with
every trade that has ever been made in baseball. But you have to take risks,
and the Astros absolutely had to get a No. 2 starter. They could not start the
season with Woody Williams as their No. 2. He's a good pitcher and a tremendous
veteran presence. He's also no higher than a No. 3.
答︰沒有錯，這個 Jennings交易相當失敗。在棒球世界
中每次交易必會伴隨著風險。但是你必須冒險，而太空人
絕對要補進一名二號先發。他們不能讓 Williams成為下
球季的二號先發。他是名優秀的先發投手，並帶有老將的
重大影響力。可是他的實力不會超過三號先發的位置。
Did the Astros overpay? Probably. Losing Taveras doesn't bother me, because as
terrific as he is in center field, his progress has been slow at the plate.
Chris Burke will not be as good defensively in center, but I can't wait to see
what he does at the plate now that he'll be playing every day.
至於太空人被搶劫了？或許有可能。在這交易中失去 Taveras
，我還不心焦，因為他在打擊區緩慢進步過程就像他守中
外野一樣可怕。或許 Burke守中外野不那麼穩，但既然他
能天天先發上場，我等不及看到他在打擊區的長足表現了。
When this trade was made, there was plenty of outcry that the Astros gave up
three Major League players for one. I do not agree. Taylor Buchholz without a
doubt has some of the best raw stuff in terms of pitching, but he has yet to
show he belongs in the Major Leagues. He had some great starts last year, he
also had several that ended with him becoming totally unglued. So, he's got
some work to do.
兩隊交易達成時，對我來說，太空人丟了3個大聯盟等級球員
去換一名投手，實在很不滿。我不認同這樣的交易。從投球
方面來看， Buchholz無疑擁有一些優異的潛能。
但是他從未用實力證明自己屬於大聯
盟等級。去年他有幾次先發，表現不錯，不過也有幾次他投得
讓自己身心煎熬。因此他還要再努力。
It's losing Jason Hirsh that doesn't sit well with me. He's just now getting
started and I really was impressed with him during his short time with the
Astros last year. Will he be an Oswalt-type ace someday? Maybe not. But he's
probably going to be a serviceable No. 2 or 3, eventually. So that part of the
trade has the potential to come back to bite the Astros.
把 Hirsh送走我就不贊同了。他現在才正要發光，而且我對於
上個球季他在太空人短暫期間的表現印象深刻。假以時日他是否
會成為 Oswalt類型的先發投手呢？ 也許不會。但是未來他有可
能成為堪用的 2或3號先發。所以這交易的一部份在日後可能會
反噬太空人一口。
Here's how I see it: if Jennings does for the Astros what he's done in his
career so far, and they can sign him to a contract extension, then I'll
consider it a good deal. If the Astros can't sign him and he leaves after 2007,
I'll consider it a disaster, regardless of how well Taveras, Hirsh and Buchholz
perform next year.
以下是我所認為的︰如果 Jennings在太空人表現就像他生涯目前
那樣好，明年太空人與他續約，那我覺得這是個好交易。先不管
明年 Taveras、Hirsh、Buchholz明年的表現，如果2007年太空人
簽不到他，我會認為這個交易徹底失敗。
I don't know much about Miguel Asensio, except that he's had very little Major
League time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2004. However, his
velocity is pretty impressive -- his fastball clocked in at 92-94 mph -- and
the Astros see him as a solid bullpen option. So, that could work out.
除了知道 Miguel Asensio 2004年三月開了TJ手術，在
大聯盟沒待多久外，我對他的概況所知不多。不過，他的
球速讓人驚艷---速球可達到 92-94 mph之間---而且太空
人認為他是堅強牛棚的選擇，所以就達成這個交易。
Sometimes it's the little-known players who make the biggest difference. I
remember when the Astros acquired Dan Wheeler from the Mets in the middle of
the 2004 season. I think my reaction was something along the lines of "Eh, big
deal."
有時候無啥名氣的球員有朝一日也會翻身。我還記得04球季中
太空人從大都會交易來 Wheeler的例子。 所以循此線想，我的
反應是，〝啊，了不起！〞
The Astros recently signed Carlos Lee to a contract bigger than Lance
Berkman's. I know that the Cubs paying so much for Alfonso Soriano had
something to do with the price tag for Lee, but I don't believe in any way that
he should earn more than Berkman, who is an MVP candidate every year. Does this
cause a problem for Berkman?
-- John A., Clear Lake, Texas
問︰最近太空人與 Lee簽下一紙比當初 Berkman還大的合約。
我知道這與小熊隊花大錢簽 Soriano，而提高 Lee身價的情形
有關，但我認為不管怎樣，價碼都不該超過每年都是 MVP候選
人的 Berkman。這樣會讓 Berkman心存芥蒂嗎？
I don't think Lee should make more than Berkman either, but that's how the
business works. Berkman got fair market value at the time of his signing, as
did Lee. Different years, different markets.
答︰我也覺得 Lee的身價沒有 Berkman高，但那就是生意上的
運作。 Berkman在他簽約的當時，是合理的市場價值， Lee現
在的狀況也一樣。不同年度，市場就截然不同。
I doubt Berkman will have any problem with Lee making more than him. I think if
you presented Berkman with the choice to a) be the highest paid position player
on the team or b) be the second-highest paid position player on the team who
now has a legitimate cleanup hitter behind him, I think that he would pick the
latter.
我覺得 Berkman不會因為 Lee比自己高薪就有所不滿。我認為
如果你要 Berkman選擇︰
a)當全隊最高薪野手。
b)當全隊第二高薪野手，然而背後有個合適的四棒打者保護他。
我想他會選擇後者。
Will the Astros retire No. 5? I hope they do. Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
-- Travis H., Grand Rapids, Mich.
問︰太空人會把五號背號退休嗎？我希望他們能這麼做。 Bagwell
是名人堂一員。
The Astros will definitely retire Bagwell's uniform number, and Drayton McLane
confirmed it would happen sometime in 2007. It looks like he'll be leaving it
up to Bagwell to decide on the date. I'd love to see it happen on Opening Day,
but it may arrive sometime later in the season.
答︰太空人絕對會讓 Bagwell的球衣背號退休，而且 McLane證實這
儀式會在07年某天舉行。看樣子他會讓 Bagwell做決定。我希望是在
開幕戰當天，不過有可能在球季稍晚時舉行。
Do you think the Astros will go after Barry Zito? They could use another
starter.
-- Jon D., Lubbock, Texas
問︰你認為太空人會去簽下 Zito嗎？這樣他們又多了一名可用之兵。
I don't think the Astros are going to enter the Zito sweepstakes. He's going to
command somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million and I doubt the Astros
are going to make two $100 million commitments in one offseason. I'm going to
assume Zito, a Scott Boras client, will receive his boatloads of cash somewhere
besides Houston.
答︰我覺得太空人不會把錢拿去賭在 Zito身上。他的開價已達到100M
左右，而且我相信太空人不會在同個 offseason開出兩個100M的合約。
我認為 Boras的客戶 Zito，會在休士頓以外的球隊獲得滿載的鈔票。
Do you think the voters will keep Jeff Bagwell out of the Hall of Fame so he
can be inducted with Craig Biggio?
-- Sam I., Miami, Fla.
問︰你認為名人堂的票選會員會讓 Bagwell先選不上，以讓他再跟
Biggio一同入選嗎？
There may be voters out there who would like to see Bagwell and Biggio go in
together, but if it happens that way, I think it'll be more coincidental than
planned. I do, however, think there's a chance that they'll go in together. If
Biggio gets his 3,000th hit, he'll probably get in on the first ballot.
Bagwell, from what I'm hearing and reading from voters, is probably a Hall of
Famer but not on the first ballot. Jeff will be eligible in 2011, and Biggio,
if next season is his last, will be eligible in 2013. So if Bagwell gets in on
his third try, he'll probably go in with Biggio.
答︰一定會有票選會員想看到 Bagwell和 Biggio一同入選，但結果
若如那樣，我認為巧合的程度大於有心計畫。然而我也認為他們有
可能同年入選。假使 Biggio達到三千安， 他可能在第一年就成功
入選。至於 Bagwell的話，從我在票選會員那得知或理解的，應會
票選入名人堂，但是不會在首次就入選。
Jeff 在2011年就有票選資格，而如果明年是 Biggio最後一個球季
，那他的票選資格是在2013年開始才有。所以如果 Bagwell邁入第
三年的票選，他就有可能和 Biggio同年度選入名人堂。
Any chance the Astros will sign Jeff Suppan? He would make a solid No. 4
starter and is known for his durability, eating up innings, and playoff
performance.
-- Jonathan R.
問︰太空人有無可能簽下 Suppan？他以續航力佳、能吃局數以及
季後賽表現為名，能夠勝任隊中實力堅強的四號先發。
Suppan would be a great addition, and seeing that the Astros have their fourth
and fifth spots in the rotation wide open, he's more than a little intriguing.
But he's also going to be expensive. He added several millions onto his price
tag after his postseason performance, much like Carlos Beltran did after his
superhuman October in 2004.
答︰Suppan的加盟一定讓投手陣容大大堅強，而且想想太空人先發
輪值中未決的4、5號先發，他實在有一些吸引力在。但是他的價碼
也會很貴。他季後賽的傑出投球也使自己的身價加碼了幾百萬，大
致就像是04年 Beltran在10月超人般表現後的情形。
Suppan's due for a big payday and while it would be great to have him, the
Astros are close to reaching their spending limit. Assuming they're going to
have to pay about $20 million to the remaining eight arbitration-eligible
players, they're already up to around $87 million in payroll for '07.
Suppan有理獲得高薪，投手群中有他也很完美，然而太空人幾近達到
預算的極限。現在他們有大約$20M來處理剩下八名有仲裁資格的球員
，07年的全隊薪資目前已高達$87M左右。
Did Roger Clemens ever record that stolen base he was after? Maybe that would
bring him back for one more year. Any thing to lure him back would help.
-- Thomas K., Houston
問︰Clemens過去曾有拼過盜壘的紀錄嗎？也許這個動力可讓他多打一
年。任何讓他願意回到場上的誘因都有助益。
He did not record the stolen base, and given the somewhat fragile state of his
hamstrings, groin and back, I think he's going to have to settle for a big
goose egg in the "SB" category on his stat line. It's OK. I'm fairly certain it
won't hurt his Hall of Fame chances.
答︰他沒有任何盜壘的紀錄，而且事實上他的腿筋、鼠蹊、背部有點
容易受傷，我想他的表現數據在盜壘項目一定寫著大大的零蛋。無傷
大雅。我確定該項目不會影響他進入名人堂的機會。
A lot of folks seem to be in a state of grief about the departure of
Pettitte. I watched almost all of the Astros games last year, and while
Pettitte is certainly good and has a great reputation, I was less than
impressed with his 2006 season. Am I missing something here?
-- Mike W., Lufkin, Texas
問︰很多球迷似乎對 Pettitte的離去感到傷心。去年我幾乎看了每場
太空人的比賽，那時 Pettitte投得可圈可點，我對他的評價很好，不過
他06年球季的表現，我印象就沒那樣深。我在這邊是不是錯過了什麼消
息？
Pettitte certainly did not have one of his better seasons last year, but his
second half was one of the best in the league. He was 7-9 with a 5.28 ERA
before the All-Star break and 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA after. It's hard to say what
kind of season he'll have next year, but I think the thing that stung most
Astros fans was that they lost a proven winner, a veteran, an innings-eater and
a perfect No. 2. In baseball, you pay for what a player did in the past more
than what he'll do in the future, because there's no way to gauge what he's
going to do. So, in those terms, losing Pettitte hurts.
答︰上個球季並不是 Pettitte表現較佳的一年，但是他下半季的成績是
聯盟最優。他在明星賽前戰績7勝9敗，自責分率5.28，而明星賽後是7勝
4敗，自責分率2.80。很難說明年球季他表現如何，但是我確信刺傷大多
數太空人球迷的事實為他們失去了一名貨真價實的贏家、經驗豐富的老將
，一個可負擔局數的優異2號先發。
在棒球世界中，你因為一個球員過往表現所付出的代價遠比他未來的還要
大，因為無法評定他接下來會怎麼做。所以，這樣來看，喪失了 Pettitte
是一大損傷。
I just read in your mailbag that Jason Lane and Luke Scott could platoon in
left field. Scott showed a lot in the second half of last season. Do you think
he did enough to warrant a starting nod?
-- Kevin H., Beaumont, Texas
問︰我從你上週的郵包讀到 Lane和 Scott兩人會以 platoon的
形式擔任左外野手。 Scott在去年球季下半展現了實力。你認
為他能保證自己有能力擔任先發嗎？
I definitely believe that Luke deserves a starting nod based on what he did
last year. But it would be foolish to hand the job to him and not have a backup
plan. Scott has less than one full season in the big leagues and there are no
guarantees that he'll produce consistently. The team has to have alternatives
in case it doesn't work out, and that's where bench players and prospects enter
the picture.
答︰從他去年的表現來看，我絕對相信 Luke有資格擔任先發。
但是把這個位置交由他守，無其他備案，是非常愚蠢的。 Scott
未在大聯盟待滿整個球季，無法保證他的成績能夠持續下去。
所以球隊必須要有其他選擇以防萬一他到時低潮不振，那是
板凳球員或新秀會面臨的情形。
A lot of players come out like gangbusters when they first reach the big
leagues, but when opposing pitchers start watching tape of those players and
figure out their tendencies, things can change. Then you've got the scouts
sitting behind home plate reporting back to their teams about exactly what
players can and can't hit. It's all about adjustments. Scott passed the first
test. There are several more to come. A player's ability to make adjustments
often separates the elite players (Bagwell, Biggio) from the average (Aubrey
Huff).
很多球員初上大聯盟時，橫掃千軍，但當對方投手開始看到並摸
清這些球員的習性時，情形就改變了。然後你就知道坐在本壘板
後的球探向他球隊報告該名打者攻擊的優點以及死角。全都是關
於球員狀況調整的問題。
Scott目前通過了第一關。但後頭還會面臨無數挑戰。球員面對低
潮調適的能力通常也分隔出頂尖球員(Bagwell, Biggio)與一般球
員(Aubrey Huff)的差別。
I just read that Lane is currently tearing it up in the Venezuela Winter
League. He is on a Hall of Fame worthy 3-for-17 hitting streak. Wow! Is general
manager Tim Purpura crazy or does he know something that the rest of the
educated world doesn't? Is he seriously going to give Lane a look in center
field? Lane is a good guy, but he is not a full-time Major League player.
-- Richie E., Seabrook, Texas
問︰我獲悉 Lane最近在委內瑞拉冬季聯盟表現不佳。他17打數3安打的
紀錄足以留名。哇!總管 Purpura對此有沒有抓狂或者他根據經驗，接
下來就會恢復了呢？他有無認真要給 Lane機會守中外野呢？ Lane是個
優秀的球員，但是他不是個專職的大聯盟球員。
Actually, Lane's streak is up to 3-for-21, but who's counting?
答︰事實上， Lane的連續紀錄以往上推進到21打數3安打了，然而
誰在算這些呢？
Lane knows that he's got one more shot with this club, and he appears to be on
a mission to make up for his lost season of 2006. He approached Purpura soon
after the season ended and basically apologized for his performance, and asked
for another chance, which includes giving him a look in center field.
Lane知道球團會給予他機會，而他也明顯表現要彌補2006年的失落。
球季馬上結束他就找 Pupura表示自己打不好的歉意，並且詢問是否
能再給他機會，包括讓他在中外野試試看。
He's working especially hard on his flexibility, which he lost to a degree a
couple of years ago when he had a sports hernia. He's apparently dropped around
10-15 pounds and appears to be driven to prove himself again. He has no
guarantees, but Purpura and manager Phil Garner are willing to give him a look.
He's working especially hard on his flexibility, which he lost to a degree a
couple of years ago when he had a sports hernia. He's apparently dropped around
10-15 pounds and appears to be driven to prove himself again. He has no
guarantees, but Purpura and manager Phil Garner are willing to give him a look.
他一直特別在加強身體的彈性，幾年前他得了運動員的疝氣，有程度
上的退步。他現在顯然瘦了10-15磅，而且想要再次證明自己。他沒有
任何保障讓人信任，不過 Purpura和總教練 Garner樂意給他機會。
Lane succeeded on every level through the Minor Leagues and has yet to put it
together in the big leagues. It's hard to give up on a player who once showed
so much promise. Will it work out? Who knows. He's not been promised a starting
job. I envision Lee, Burke and Scott in the outfield on Opening day. I also
think Hunter Pence is going to get a look in center at some point during the
season. Lane isn't a sure thing, but the club simply is not ready to give up on
him.
Lane在小聯盟各層級表現都很成功，然而卻還沒將這些表現延續進
大聯盟，讓人很難去放棄一個曾顯現出無窮潛力的球員。結果會成
功嗎？誰知道。他已不被指望先發了。我期待Lee、Burke、Scott
擔任開幕戰先發外野手。我也相信在球季中 Pence也有機會到中外
野亮相。 Lane的安排還未確定，球團還不準備要放棄他。
==========================
沒翻好之處，我再修改
==========================
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◆ From: 218.172.210.22
推
12/19 19:22, , 1F
12/19 19:22, 1F
推
12/19 19:24, , 2F
12/19 19:24, 2F
原來是這樣啊 謝謝
※ 編輯: mysunny 來自: 218.172.219.213 (12/19 21:49)
推
12/26 19:34, , 3F
12/26 19:34, 3F