[轉錄][討論] MLB專欄作家預測FA大戰結果
※ [本文轉錄自 Rangers 看板 #1CrFSl64 ]
作者: mayfirst (Rangers感動!!) 看板: Rangers
標題: [討論] MLB專欄作家預測FA大戰結果
時間: Sat Nov 6 14:35:24 2010
Predicting the Free Agent Frenzy
作者:Dave Feldman | MLB.com Columnist
So here's the deal.
There's this fantasy game we just launched. It's called Free Agent Frenzy.
What you have to do with Free Agent Frenzy is predict where 12 of the biggest
free agents will land this offseason.
預測12位頂級自由球員的落腳處
Of course, there's a twist. In addition to picking which team you think Benny
Baseball is going to sign with, you have to assign confidence points, ranging
from 1-12, along with it. You can only use a number once.
For example, if you just know that Benny Baseball is 100percent.com/LockItUp
going to sign with the Georgia Peaches, you give Benny Baseball 12 confidence
points. If you think Benny Baseball's destination is about as predictable as
a Jonathan Sanchez 3-1 offspeed pitch, you give him one confidence point.
The more confident you are with your pick, the higher the confidence number
you give. It's really that simple.
And since I'm not eligible to win this thing, I might as well scribble out a
cheat sheet for you all.
Player: Carl Crawford, OF
Legit possibilities: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Giants, Tigers, Angels, Blue
Jays.
Favorites: With all due respect to Cliff Lee, Crawford holds the conch in
this free-agent class. He's in a league of his own defensively, his power
seems to be improving by the year, he's a quintessential "great clubhouse
guy" and has the type of speed that gives pitchers and catchers the
heebie-jeebies. If Jason Bay can get a deal from the Mets worth $16.5 million
per season, what's Crawford worth? $17 million? $18 million? $30 million?
Regardless, this price tag automatically takes the Rays out of the equation,
and if the Red Sox and Yanks are going to be taking a sledgehammer to their
piggy banks, I can't see Crawford going to Detroit. It's likely going to be
the battle of the big boys here.
Darkhorse: Do the Giants make too much sense for this to happen? They can't
really think they can get away with a patchwork outfield again, can they?
They don't actually expect Cody Ross to slug .700 all next season, do they?
Add in the fact that they play in a major market, have some cash to burn with
some World Series winnings and have that California weather/appeal, and I
actually think this could work.
Prediction: When the dust settles, I think the Yanks will be too preoccupied
giving Lee the Grey Poupon treatment and will have their hands tied in
overpaying Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera (we'll get to them later) to reel
in Crawford. The Red Sox know they need a makeover atop their lineup, and
Jacoby Ellsbury looks to be headed on his way out. I think it's Boston (seven
years, $125 million), and I feel pretty good about it.
Confidence points: 7
Player: Cliff Lee, SP
Legit possibilities: Yankees, Rangers, Mets.
Favorites: At this point, it seems like the Yanks would pay $20 million per
season to just not face Lee in the postseason. We saw New York's rotation
fall apart down the stretch last season, we don't know Andy Pettitte's deal
for next year, we most definitely know that Javier Vazquez won't be back and
we know the Yanks want nothing to do with relying on A.J. Burnett again. It's
safe to say they'll be putting the full-court press on Lee like a Rick Pitino
college hoops squad. It's really just a matter of whether Lee wants to pitch
in New York. If he does, he will. If he doesn't, he'll take less coin to
pitch for the Rangers.
Darkhorse: I've seen the reports that the Nationals might go hard after Lee.
Uhhh, yeah, good luck with that. The Mets might make some sense and the idea
of pitching in the National League has to be enticing, but can the Mets
really afford to get even older?
Prediction: The Yankees get what the Yankees want, and if that means giving a
soon-to-be 33-year-old a five-year, $125 million contract, then so be it.
Confidence points: 9
Player: Jayson Werth, OF
Legit possibilities: Phillies, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants.
Favorites: Rumors have already swirled that the Phillies have the resources
to bring Werth back at a reasonable price, but considering Scott Boras is
involved, I can't imagine the price will be sniffing the reasonable scale.
Also, I have to think Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is just giddy
at the idea of trotting blue-chip prospect Domonic Brown out to right field
every day next season. Amaro has to pretend to really want Werth back to
please the kids at home.
Anyway, if the Red Sox nab Crawford, they won't be throwing their money
Werth's way, and I don't think that at the price Werth will likely fetch ($15
million per season?), he's that much of an upgrade over what the Yankees
currently have (Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson). I guess this
leaves the Angels and Giants.
Darkhorse: I could see a team like the Tigers making some noise here, as they
just cleared about $80 million worth of salary and have a gaping hole in
their outfield. They've also established quite the bro-mance with Boras,
overpaying Ivan Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon and Kenny Rogers
over the last few years.
Prediction: How about the Angels? Here's a team that had a mini dynasty atop
the American League West crumble after a freak Kendry Morales injury, and
they've proven they will spend some bank on free agents after signing Torii
Hunter, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu and Joel Pineiro over the last couple
offseasons. Signing Werth long term (five years, $75 million) and letting
Abreu walk next season in order to make room for top prospect Mike Trout
passes the smell test to me. But, alas, this one could play out a number of
ways and is directly tied to Crawford.
Confidence points: 3
Player: Adam Dunn, OF, 1B, DH
Legit possibilities: Nationals, Dodgers, Orioles, Tigers, Cubs, White Sox.
Favorites: Lots of potential suitors here. That's what happens when a guy
who's averaged more than 40 homers per year for the last seven years hits the
open market. Let's break this one down team by team.
Nationals: After Ryan Zimmerman, they have next to nothing in their batting
order in the power department. But if Dunn really wanted to return, wouldn't
he have re-signed during last season? I say yes.
Dodgers: The Dodgers definitely need a big bat in their lineup after
finishing second to last in the National League with 120 homers last season.
And while there is room for Dunn in the outfield with Scott Podsednik on his
way out, Dunn's future is at first base or designated hitter. And unless
James Loney gets dealt, Dunn likely isn't coming to Tinseltown.
Orioles: The Orioles make some sense, as they have a gaping hole at first
base, desperately need a consistent bat in their lineup and play in the AL.
But does Dunn really want to go to another team destined for 90-plus losses?
Tigers: The Tigers perhaps make the most sense of any team. If they choose
not to re-sign Ordonez, they can slot Dunn safely into right field and keep
him there until he reaches full-time DH status. If they do re-sign Maggs,
they could put Dunn in left field, and though it'd make Austin Jackson cover
about 4,750 feet of outfield grass, it'd give Detroit a potent offensive
outfield. Add in the fact that a Tigers 3-4-5 of Ordonez-Cabrera-Dunn would
instantly make Detroit contenders in the AL Central again, and I think we're
cooking some serious chili here.
Darkhorse: I think both Chicago squads are possibilities, but the White Sox
would probably prefer to re-sign Paul Konerko at a cheaper rate and use their
budget elsewhere. And while the Cubs do have an opening at first base, I have
to think Dunn would prefer to hit the AL if given the chance. And he will
most definitely be given the chance.
Prediction: Given the amount of open payroll, the flexibility of playing
either corner-outfield position or becoming a full-time DH and the prospect
of hitting right behind Miguel Cabrera makes the Tigers the favorites in the
Dunn sweepstakes. Four years, $65 million should do the trick.
Confidence points: 6
Player: Paul Konerko, 1B
Legit possibilities: White Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, D-backs.
Favorites: Let's take a moment and just reflect at how incredible and
simultaneously under the radar Konerko's 2010 season was. At the age of 34,
he hit .312 with 39 homers and 111 RBIs, marking (arguably) the best
all-around season of his career. I know that the D-backs have already flirted
with his services, and just like with Dunn, the Cubs and Dodgers make some
sense here, but let's keep in mind that Konerko has been with the White Sox
since 1999, and they'd have a gaping hole at first base if he doesn't come
back.
Darkhorse: We know how this one's turning out, don't we?
Prediction: Yeah, we do. Five years, $55 million should let Konerko retire
with the White Sox.
Confidence points: 10
Player: Adrian Beltre, 3B
Legit possibilities: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Orioles, Mariners, Indians.
Favorites: A total vacuum at the hot corner, Beltre shouldn't have trouble
finding suitors after posting a .321-28-102 line in his lone season in
Beantown. Each of the teams listed above either has a gaping hole at third
(Angels, Indians, Mariners), needs time to let a prospect develop (Orioles)
or just needs a serious upgrade (Blue Jays). Considering Kevin Youkilis'
flexibility in the field, it seems like Beltre would be more of a luxury for
Boston, not a necessity. Re-signing Victor Martinez to play first and
shifting Youkilis to third makes sense to me.
Darkhorse: Seattle just declined Jose Lopez's option, so in theory, a Beltre
return to the Emerald City would make some sense. And while in our minds it
seems like Beltre drastically underperformed his contract while with the
Mariners from 2005-09, he averaged about a .270-20-80 line per season while
providing top-notch defense. In retrospect, his five-year, $64 million deal
doesn't seem so insanely crazy, right?
Prediction: Of course, it makes way more sense for the Angels to get
seriously involved here. Last season, Angels third basemen hit a combined
.233 with eight homers and a .266 on-base percentage. The Brandon
Wood/Alberto Callaspo experiment is over, folks. I'm seeing a repeat of his
previous contract, as a five-year deal in the $60 million range should get
the deal done.
Confidence points: 5
Player: Victor Martinez, C, 1B, DH
Legit possibilities: Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mariners, Rangers,
Orioles.
Favorites: This is where things get seriously dicey. Gauging the market for a
soon-to-be 32-year-old offensive-minded catcher who has maybe one slightly
below-average year behind the plate left is not as easy as you'd think. The
good news is that V-Mart's destined for a 1B/DH role for most of his next
contract, realistically eliminating NL teams from the equation here.
Darkhorse: There's no real favorite here, so it's hard to give a darkhorse.
Let's break this one down team by team, shall we?
Red Sox: The Red Sox are certainly in the equation, but they're too smart to
give Martinez a four- or five-year deal, which is what it will likely take to
sign him. Only way I see him returning to the Sox is if they lose out on
Beltre and possibly Crawford, shifting Youkilis to third and making Martinez
the full-time first baseman.
Tigers: The Tigers have a promising youngster with Alex Avila behind the
plate and would probably prefer to send their shekels Dunn's or Werth's way.
But if they get spurned by both, Martinez looks like a classic panic
alternative.
Blue Jays: Can the Jays really bank on John Buck turning in another
.281-20-66 season?
Brewers: Jonathan Lucroy doesn't seem ready for full-time duty behind the
plate. If this were 1988 and Milwaukee was still in the AL, this would make
sense.
Mariners: Again, Seattle seems to have money to burn, desperately needs some
offense and can't be that excited for the Adam Moore (205 AB, .195 AVG) era
to really get going.
Rangers: Makes some sense, but going from a Molina brother behind the plate
to Martinez would be like turning in your Ruth's Chris Steak House membership
badge for a Taco Bell gift card. And hey, I love Taco Bell as much as the
next guy.
Orioles: This is totally a gut call, but something about the Orioles and
Martinez works for me. Obviously, with Matt Wieters behind the dish for the
next decade, they'd sign Martinez to be a full-time first baseman. That's
probably a good thing.
Prediction: Let's talk this one out. The Orioles desperately need to make
some sort of splash in free agency, could really use some veteran leadership
and all-world handshake skills in the clubhouse and could probably
rationalize doling out a five-year, $55 million deal to bring some excitement
back to the Charm City.
Confidence points: 2
Player: Rafael Soriano, RP
Legit possibilities: Braves, Nationals, Angels, Blue Jays, Yankees.
Favorites: It's always hard to predict when a team is willing to totally
break the bank for a closer, so I pretty much just identified the squads who
clearly have a hole in the fireman department.
Darkhorse: You're telling me that you'd be shocked if the Yankees gave
Soriano $25 million for three years just to be Mariano Rivera's setup man?
Prediction: The Braves have had a front-row seat to the Soriano experience
before, and considering they dealt him for next to nothing last season, I
find it hard to believe they'd put on their gold-plated diapers for him here.
After that, it will likely become a bidding war between the Nationals, Angels
and Blue Jays. The prospect of putting a season in the hands of Fernando
Rodney should scare the Angels enough to give Soriano a three-year, $25
million deal.
Confidence points: 4
Player: Jorge De La Rosa, SP
Legit possibilities: The Rockies and every other team in the Majors that
could use a left-handed starter but don't want to spend $20 million per
season on Lee.
Favorites: I'm almost positive that predicting which team is going to
overspend on a second-tier, unproven but certainly attractive southpaw
starter is harder than one of those oversized Rubik's Cubes with 12 rows.
From the Rockies to the A's to the Twins to the Tigers to the Angels, the
possibilities are endless. I'm going to be brutally honest here. I have
absolutely no clue, no inkling and no feeling as to where De La Rosa ends up.
Prediction: Let's just randomly give him the Angels, lay the one confidence
point down and move on to the next one.
Confidence points: 1
Player: Carl Pavano, SP
Legit possibilities: Twins, Yankees (relax! Just kidding!), random NL team in
need of starter.
Favorites: Pavano should come much cheaper than De La Rosa, and considering
that he seems to have found a safe environment for himself and his mustache
in the Twin Cities, I think it will be hard for him to leave.
Darkhorse: Of course, there's always the chance that the Twins decide they
don't want to spend $10 million per season on a free agent. If that's the
case, expect an NL club in a good pitcher's park (Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals)
to throw its money Pavano's way.
Prediction: Pavano just seems made for the Twins. They need a proven starter
to pitch behind Francisco Liriano, they accepted Pavano's stellar facial hair
like one of their own and, ya know, the guy won 17 games while posting a 3.75
ERA last season. I figure an expensive, but reasonable three-year, $30
million deal should do the trick.
Confidence points: 8
Player: Mariano Rivera, RP
Legit possibilities: Yankees.
Favorites: Yankees.
Darkhorse: None.
Prediction: Yankees, three years, $45 million.
Confidence points: 12
Player: Derek Jeter, SS
Legit possibilities: Yankees.
Favorites: Yankees.
Darkhorse: Let's just say, for fun, that Jeter wants a six-year deal worth
about $20 million a year. And for whatever reason, the Yankees just can't
justify spending that kind of money on a 36-year-old who batted .270 with 10
homers and 67 RBIs last season.
You're telling me a heartbroken, spurned and betrayed Jeter wouldn't at least
consider going crosstown to play second base with the Mets or sign a one-year
deal with divisional foe Tampa Bay? I mean, it's possible, right?
Prediction: Eh, I guess not. Yankees, five years, $100 million.
Confidence points: 11
總結預測結果:
Carl Crawford:Rays->Red Sox
Cliff Lee:Rangers->Yankees
Jayson Werth:Phillies->Angels
Adam Dunn:Nationals->Tigers
Paul Konerko:White Sox
Adrian Beltre:Red Sox->Angels
Victor Martinez:Red Sox->Orioles
Rafael Soriano:Rays->Angels
Jorge De La Rosa:Rockies->Angels
Carl Pavano:Twins
Mariano Rivera&Derek Jeter->Yankees
編按:這作者當Angels老闆是Scott Boras嗎?預測的真的超...
剛換老闆的遊騎兵隊GM表示:
資料來源:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101105&content_id=16008300&vkey=
perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
(本文轉載隨意~)
--
2010 Texas Rangers Postseason Franchise Roster
(SP)Cliff Lee (C)Benjie Molina (1B)Mitch Moreland (2B)Ian Kinsler
(SS)Elvis Andrus (3B)Michael Young (LF)David Murphy (CF)Josh Hamilton
(RF)Nelson Cruz (DH)Vladimir Guerrero (SP)C.J. Wilson (SP)Colby Lewis
(CL)Neftali Feliz (RP)Darren O'Day (RP)Darren Oliver (SP)Derek Holland
(RP)Alexi Ogando (RP)Michael Kirkman (C)Matt Treanor (OF)Julio Borbon
--
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