[譯文] A-Rod deal is still a revenue winner …

看板A-Rod作者Ally1213 (No other way)時間16年前 (2007/11/23 13:23)推噓16(16推 0噓 11→)

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這是兩天前的文章，因為滿有意思的所以po上來跟大家分享。 (※若要轉載請先告知) USATODAY: http://tinyurl.com/2hmjtc A-Rod deal is still a revenue winner for Yanks 簽回阿肉，洋基受益 ALL APPEARS WELL WITH the New York Yankees- Alex Rodriguez relationship. Some fences have been mended. He has agreed to the parameters of a 10-year, $275 million contract, according to a person directly involved in the negotiations. Both sides seem close to toasting the happy pairing. 洋基與阿肉似乎恢復了良好的關係，釋盡前嫌；阿肉同意了10年275M的新合約，而根據 "相關人士"指出，談判時雙方人馬看起來就要為這樣的搭配舉杯敬酒了。 The deal would set a record for the largest guaranteed payout in American sports, breaking the mark of $252 million Rodriguez had established when he signed with the Rangers after the 2000 season. 新合約將會是美國職業運動選手的最新高，打破阿肉自己與遊騎兵的合約紀錄。 A-Rod has not publicly explained his reasons for opting out of the contract in late October. In Monday's conference call after he was announced as the 2007 American League MVP, Rodriguez refused to address offseason issues other than to say, "All I can tell you is that the discussions went really well with my wife and the Steinbrenner family last week." 阿肉尚未公開解釋他為何脫逃。週一MVP的記者會上他也只說"談論的過程相當好" From all indications, the Yankees and A-Rod are a match made in heaven, at least from a financial standpoint. With a $189.6 million opening-day payroll last season, tops in baseball, New York could absorb his salary without losing maneuverability. After all, the Yankees lured Roger Clemens back in May with a prorated deal worth about $18.5 million. 從所有跡象看來，洋基與阿肉根本就是天作之合，從財務面來說，去年球員薪資總額獨占鰲頭的邪惡帝國，不只能夠吸收阿肉的薪水，又不會顧忌太多、綁手綁腳；看看他們把老火箭"引誘"回巢的合約就知道。 More significant to the team than salaries, however, is that Rodriguez's abi- lity to generate revenue is maximized by the Yankees' status as the most prestigious franchise in baseball, and arguably in all of sports, and their location in the world's largest media market. 對球隊來說，比薪資更關鍵的，其實是阿肉所能帶來的收益，可以在洋基被擴張到最大 Sports economists Andrew Zimbalist and Vince Gennaro emphasize Rodriguez is worth more to the Yankees than to any other franchise, which makes the team uniquely qualified to meet his salary demands. 運動經濟學者Zimbalist與Gennaro強調，阿肉的價值讓球團願意付出高薪。 "I thought it was possible he would return to New York because no other team was in position to justify paying him what the Yankees could pay," says Zimbalist, the author of several books on sports business. "It would have had to be a substantial overreach outside of New York." Zimbalist寫了數本運動商業的書，他說，"我認為他可能回到洋基，因為沒有其他球隊可以付出這筆金額" (這算是後知灼見嗎？ =.=) Rodriguez's contract could be worth $304 million with incentives, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Gennaro, a consultant to the Cleveland Indians and author of the new book Diamond Dollar$— The Economics of Winning in Baseball, lists six teams that could have afforded to pay Rodriguez up to $30 million a year and still break even on that investment, provided they made the playoffs every year: the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels. 加上獎勵金，阿肉的合約值304M。笑臉人的顧問 Gennaro即將出一本跟棒球有關的書，列出六個能夠給阿肉一年30M，但是靠著打進季後賽就能打平的球團: 洋基，紅襪，梅子，小熊，道奇，天使。 The Yankees stand to make the most from his presence — about $45 million annually, by Gennaro's calculations, based on a formula that takes into account attendance, broadcast fees, concessions, merchandising and other forms of revenue. They're also likely the only club that can afford to pay a luxury tax and still recoup its investment on Rodriguez. 根據Gennaro的計算，洋基光是靠著阿肉的出場每年就能賺45M，可能是唯一付豪華稅但是卻能回收投資在阿肉身上的成本的球團。 The biggest factor in the equation? 所以等式最要緊？ "A-Rod's ability to contribute eight or nine wins on the playing field to a team that can turn those wins into a playoff spot," says Gennaro, adding that it makes no financial sense for non-contenders to take on such a high-salaried player. "When a team reaches the postseason, there's a windfall of revenues that get unlocked within the next three, four, five years." "阿肉能貢獻8~9場的勝利，但是他的球隊必須要能利用這些勝場擠進後賽。" Gennaro 說: " 對於不常進季後賽的球隊來說，標下他沒有任何經濟上的意義。" 季後賽的周邊效益之龐大，甚至擴及到往後5年。 He cites the Detroit Tigers as an example, pointing out their season-ticket base went from 9,000 in 2006 to 18,500 this year, the season after they reached the World Series. 以老虎當例子，去年他們打入世界大賽後，今年他們球場季票的數量增加了一倍 Because a large percentage of those season tickets figure to be renewed, especially if the team stays competitive, Gennaro estimates the value of the Tigers' appearance in the Series at $35 million over three to five years. 未來3到5年老虎光靠去年就有35M的商機 OF COURSE, THE YANKEES haven't made the World Series in the four seasons since they acquired Rodriguez to play third base, and his postseason miseries — a .159 average and one RBI in first-round exits the last three years — are well-chronicled. 當然自從阿肉來守三壘之後，洋基有四年沒打進世界大賽了，然後不能免俗地要提一下他季後賽的窘境。 "He's arguably the best player that will ever have played the game," says ESPN analyst Steve Phillips, the Mets general manager from 1997 to 2003. "I do believe he's that good, postseason numbers aside. But we have found that individuals don't guarantee anything to a team. "他可以說是史上最棒的球員，"ESPN分析員、梅子97~03的GM，Steve Phillips說：" 我相信他的好與能耐，撇開季後賽不談的話；但是我們發現個人表現並不能擔保球隊贏得一切。" "If you have to sacrifice your team in multiple other areas to afford that single salary and put it into your overall budget, that doesn't lead to winning." "如果你必須犧牲掉其他方面的支出，只為了付一個人的薪水，這樣並不會使球隊贏球。" So why do it? Wouldn't a team be better off splitting the cost of an A-Rod into, say, a Torii Hunter and a Luis Castillo? 所以為何球隊要追著阿肉跑，把阿肉的薪資分散來請其他比較不貴的球員，像Hunter (對照昨天的新聞，這就好笑了....)或Castillo不是對球隊比較好嗎？ The answer depends on a team's needs, and those can't always be addressed through the free agent market, especially a thin one like this year's. Plus, acquiring two appealing players might not generate as much buzz and excitement among prospective season-ticket buyers as making a big splash with a huge sig- ning. 這答案得端賴球隊所需，還有他們是否能在自由市場找到好貨來決定。況且，對於預先購買季票的人來說，一張新的大合約可能會帶來比較多的刺激感跟購買慾。 "If you look at (the Cubs' Alfonso) Soriano and (Carlos) Zambrano, they average (about) 18 a year. That's $36 million," Brewers GM Doug Melvin says. "Some people might say I'd rather have A-Rod than the two of them." 釀酒人的GM說: "你去看看小熊的Soriano跟Zambrano，他們兩個加起來一年要36M，有有些人可能會說，我寧願要阿肉也不要他們兩個" (Soriano:哭哭 ; Zambrano: ˋ皿ˊ) And then there are individual team needs. Of the clubs Gennaro listed as pos- sible suitors for Rodriguez, only the Dodgers and Angels (in addition to the Yankees) are potentially seeking a third baseman. (When Sports Weekly went to press, the Red Sox had reached a preliminary agreement with free agent third baseman Mike Lowell on a three-year, $37.5 million contract, according to two people familiar with the negotiations who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the deal had not yet been finalized.) "He has to be the last piece of the puzzle for this to make any sense at all, and on top of that they probably have to be in a reasonably sized market," Gennaro says. "Those are two necessary ingredients." 每個球隊的需要也不同。Gennaro列的球隊除了洋基以外，只有道奇與天使在找三壘手(紅襪跟賣肉應該是已經敲定了)。"阿肉必須要是最後的那個關鍵，而球團們必須提供合理的市場價格；等於說賣方與買方兩者缺一不可。" It wasn't just the exorbitant cost and the impact on the payroll that made pursuing A-Rod a challenge. For all the sophisticated tools available to clubs gauging a player's value, many rely on comparisons with the salaries of similar players — essentially the same approach employed in the arbitration process. 要買阿肉，面臨的挑戰不只有過高的價格或是對整體薪資的影響。球團自有一套評估球員價值的準則，他們會比較相似球員的薪資，這也是薪資仲裁的基本步驟。 "There is no formula," Mets GM Omar Minaya says. "You look at the impact the player has on your club on the field and off the field." 梅子GM Omar Minaya說：" 其實沒有常規可言，你要看的是這位球員對隊上、球場上、球場外的影響。" As a three-time MVP in his prime (he's 32) and the game's highest-paid player by far, Rodriguez has no real basis for comparison. Nobody else's contract averages more than $20 million a year. 但是要比較阿肉，他的成績以及過去的薪水，你要去拿誰來比較？ Even the top-paid players in the NBA and NFL — Kevin Garnett's average of $22 million a year and Peyton Manning's $14 million — fall short of making A-Rod money. NBA與NFL的最高新都相較失色 AGENT SCOTT BORAS has cited what he calls Rodriguez's "iconic value" and his potential as a ratings draw — particularly for teams with their own regional sports network — in presenting the case for his salary demands. 波拉斯引用他所謂的"阿肉的肖像價值"還有阿肉提升收視率的潛力，作為談薪籌碼 Economists agree such factors, as well as the extra attention and revenue generated by the pursuit of a significant milestone like the all-time home run record, can have an impact on a team's bottom line. 經濟學者同意這些因素，還有阿肉打破全壘打紀錄時可能帶來的效應，這些都是衝擊到一個團隊的底限。 "If a business spent a lot of money on a high-priced CEO or on a talented filmmaker if you're a Hollywood studio, or tens of millions of dollars on a star, and they turn your fortunes around, people say that's money well spent," says Gary Gillette, co-chair of the Business of Baseball Committee for the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR). "In baseball, fans love to hate guys who make a lot of money, and they like to see them fail." "對於高薪的CEO、高價碼的好萊塢大導演或是明星，人們多半會說這些錢花得好；" 美國棒球協會的棒球商業委員會主席Gary Gillette說："在棒球的領域，球迷喜歡去討厭高薪的球員，他們會希望看他失敗。" (這是什麼心態? 0.0) That might be in part because, in a team sport where a 30% success rate for hitters is considered great, individual players are not deemed to make a huge difference. Citing statistics in the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which he edits, Gillette said A-Rod ranked second in the AL last season in "player wins" above the average performer with 5.2. So a .500 team would be boosted to 86-76 with him and a 90-win team would improve to 95-67, possibly the difference between making the playoffs and staying home. 這可能是因為，在團隊運動來說，一個人表現的好並不能對結果造成很大的改變。 Gillette引用自己編輯的ESPN棒球百科全書的數據分析說，去年球季"球員致勝" 的項目上，阿肉在美聯排行第二，高於平均值5.2。所以一個五成勝率的球隊如果有了阿肉，戰績可以是86-76，而90勝的球隊可以達到95-96勝，這差距可能就是季後賽的有無關鍵。 Indians GM Mark Shapiro, whose meager payroll (it was $61 million last season) doesn't allow him to ponder A-Rod, employs a combination of modern tools like statistical analysis with old-fashioned scouting in making player-acquisition decisions. 笑臉人球團給的錢不夠讓他們的GM買阿肉。 He says every team values players differently, but they all try to figure out how much each player will contribute to winning. Some of the factors clubs take into consideration include skills, injury history, personality, past performance, future projections and cost. 這位GM說每個球隊評估球員的方式不同，但是大抵上包括以下幾項：球員能為勝利貢獻多少、球技、傷痛史、個性、過去的表現、未來的期望以及花費。 "Ultimately, what you're trying to decide is the marginal improvement in wins that player provides you over your replacement, and that's the value that player brings to your team," Shapiro says. "最終你必須決定的是，這名球星，相較起(可能的)替換球員，贏球的同時所能帶來的邊際效益，也是球員對於球隊的價值所在。" Number crunchers have come up with several equations that attempt to trans- late a player's contributions into victories, though there's no consensus on which one works best. 許多吱吱喳喳的人想出數個公式，想把球員的貢獻換算成勝場數，但是目前為止沒有一個用的最好 There is, however, a strong general belief in the correlation between a team's on-field success and box-office appeal, regardless of its "iconic value" quotient. 但是，一般相信球隊的勝利與票房息息相關，撇開"肖像價值"不談的話 "I don't care if it's Babe Ruth; if he's playing on a 72-win team, he's only going to draw so many fans to watch him perform," Gennaro says. "Winning trumps the star in baseball any day." "我才不在乎是不是貝比魯斯，如果他在一個72勝場的球隊打球，他只能夠吸引球迷進場看他。" Gennaro說："勝利隊球迷的吸引力大過球星。" 我對於某些商業用法不是很了解，若有錯請指正,謝謝 ^^" -- 『可否答應我最後一次，如我所想你般地想我一天？最後，讓我再放肆且溫柔地向你說一聲──我愛你。』 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 203.71.94.31

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